that is just SO BARREN!
Lord I hope the snow comes SOON.
We are off to a Misérable start.
Togwotee snow?
- Thread starter jerrydecoy
- Start date
Lord I hope the snow comes SOON.
We are off to a Misérable start.
GENERAL AVALANCHE INFORMATION
TOGWOTEE PASS
PrintISSUED
Friday, December 1, 2023 - 9:49AMEXPIRES
Sunday, December 3, 2023 - 8:00AMAUTHOR
Travis Baldwin
THE BOTTOM LINE
Our weak snowpack is about to be stressed with a significant snow load at mid and upper elevations. Evaluate the snowpack carefully and use conservative decision-making this weekend with the incoming storm. Pay attention to the snowpack and watch for shooting cracks, whumphing and active wind-loading above 8000 feet. These are all signs of an unstable snowpack. Be mindful of what is above you and remember that slopes can be triggered from below. The consequences of getting caught with a thin snowpack can be traumatic.Daily zone forecasts with danger ratings will begin this weekend when there is adequate snow cover.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Forecasts – Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
bridgertetonavalanchecenter.org
We have several considerations moving into the weekend including the weak existing snowpack, an incoming storm and the avalanche problems that will develop.
The Set-up:
The last week of clear and cold weather has driven facet development in early season snow on shady aspects at mid and upper elevations. As a result, we have a weak underlying snowpack. This observation shows a typical scene of what could be below the surface. Be wary of thin spots, particularly above 8000’ on NW-N-NE-E aspects in steep, rocky terrain, where you are more likely to trigger an avalanche.
In addition, last week’s strong wind event created thick, stiff wind slabs. Winds were out of the east and slab formation was unusual in size and distribution. These slabs are generally firm and can be triggered from anywhere on the slope. The consequences of getting caught by one of these stubborn, older wind slabs could be severe given the many obstacles peppering avalanche paths. This observation and this one are great examples of this problem encountered last week.
What’s Next:
Forecasts are calling for a significant amount of moisture with the storm this weekend, starting today (Friday). Several inches have already accumulated at mid-elevations in the Tetons since midnight. Up to 30" of new snow consisting of over 2.5” of water, could fall in the upper elevations. A lot of weight is about to be added to the existing snowpack. West and southwest winds will start to ramp up this evening (Friday) and continue to climb on Saturday, possibly gusting above 40mph, particularly above 8,000’ in the Tetons. Slabs will build on leeward (N-NE-E) terrain in the alpine and any mid-elevation terrain getting cross loaded.
Shifting our focus to future snowpack issues, monitor how the new snow is bonding to the old snow. Look for evidence of wind loading around ridgetops on all aspects as well as mid-elevation terrain exposed to the wind. Pillows, thicker drifts, whumphing and cracking are signs of this problem and poor stability. Below 8000’ in most zones, and on sunny slopes, the snowpack is very thin to nonexistent. This means that whatever snow falls this weekend is the only snow covering rocks, stumps, and trees. Continue to travel cautiously if you choose to go into the mountains.
This weekend and through early next week, maintain extra margin for error knowing that the increased snow load and wind will increase the avalanche hazard. Select conservative terrain, use good travel techniques and cautious route-finding to reduce exposure to the avalanche hazard. It’s going to take a lot more snow to bury obstacles and early season problems. Be patient as this happens.
We have a trip to the area planned between Xmas and NY... Looks like the snow level is a bit behind last year at this time, and the 10 day forecast shows nothing whereas last year it started snowing about now all the way through New Years... Might have to reconsider this trip, or bump it into late Jan or early Feb. That would let us visit the military vehicle museum too, which would be a bonus.
So far, I'm pretty disappointed with the "Super El Nino" that we are supposedly in...
So far, I'm pretty disappointed with the "Super El Nino" that we are supposedly in...
With the current conditions up there I wouldn't travel far to ride there. The trails are groomed nice and you could break a sled in. Lots of stuff hidden in the snow. The snow will show up it always does just a little slow this year.
Moved our trip to later in Jan. Hopefully it shows up soon!!! 
Man, snowfall this year is not off to a good start anywhere... Last year we were there between Christmas and New Years and Tog went from 40" to 47". This year it's presently at 26", with only a little snow forecast for the next 10 days... I've been doing my snow dance twice a day, are the rest of you slacking???
We'll be out there Jan 22-26... Hoping there's at least as much by then as there was at this time last year...
We'll be out there Jan 22-26... Hoping there's at least as much by then as there was at this time last year...
I have been slacking. My co workers have been up there riding, with the expected outcome.
Bent and broken control arms.
What snow there is is hard, and you have to beat your sled up to get to any powder.
We have had plenty of cold weather. Its below 0 every morning, very little melting
Bent and broken control arms.
What snow there is is hard, and you have to beat your sled up to get to any powder.
We have had plenty of cold weather. Its below 0 every morning, very little melting
Was up to Jackson yesterday, and all the snow in the surrounding mountains was pretty THIN still.
Here's what appears to be coming over the next week or so.
The first snowflakes have begun to arrive
Current forecast for the next week's snowfall.
It actually IMPROVED over night!
It actually IMPROVED over night!
What site are you using Chris?
This is a commercial program we subscribe to.
Can you toggle it to the right to show the snowies & Steamboat area?
Heck ya.
just a sec
Christopher’s forecast is like viagra for bald guys.
Gets your hopes up, but leaves you hanging.
Gets your hopes up, but leaves you hanging.
