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It's 86 degrees outside and the

donbrown

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Just came from the beach.

It was 77-88 degrees there.

Wanted to pull the trailer for the sled (wax / maintenance ) but kidds/wife made me grab the shovel and made a sand castle.
 
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donbrown

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Light snow 22 January

Next BIG STORM maybe .... first week of February


Thursday, January 15, 2009 9:05:05 AM

QUICK THURSDAY AM UPDATE:

FAIR WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH MONDAY....LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NO CHANGE IN THE SENSEABLE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ANTI-CYCLONE PULLS NORTH TO NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECASTED TO GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR SOME UNDER CUTTING...AND FOR A DEVELOPING SOUTHERN BRANCH TO OCCUR. HOWEVER.....THE GFS ENSEMBLES HOLDS OFF ON AN UNDERCUTTING STORM UNTIL THE NEXT WEEKEND......BUT....THE EURO IS STRONGER WITH UNDER CUTTING TO ALLOW A SYSTEM TO BRING SOME PRECIP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE THURSDAY 06Z OPERATION GFS HAS AN UNDER CUTTING SYSTEM INTO THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, THE NEW 12Z THURSDAY RUN IS WEAKER WITH THE FEATURE WITH 558DM ISO HEIGHT VS 552DM CENTER ON THE 06Z RUN. LOOKING AT THE NORTH PACIFIC, THERE WAS A 185 KNOT WIND BARB AT 300MB AT 12Z THURSDAY...SOUTH OF THE GULF OF AK. "PRETTY STRONG UPPER JET".

BASED UPON MY EXPERIENCE, THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT:

1. HAVE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK TO ONE OF COOLER AND ONE OF UNSETTLED WX.....APPARENTLY INITIATED BY UNDER CUTTING AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH. THESE WILL NOT BE BIG SYSTEMS.
2. HAVE A WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACH THE SIERRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SNOWFALL
3. THE DWEEBS WILL HOLD OFF ON THE BAND WAGON ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AND SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE
OUT. OFTEN TIMES MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE (FAST) IN GOING FROM A DRY PATTERN TO A WETTER ONE. OF NOTE; THERE WAS ANOTHER SLIGHTLY COLDER SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH APPROACHING 140 WEST LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THAT "MIGHT" BE THE ONE THAT GETS US BETTER.
4. IT WILL BE QUITE A WHILE UNTIL WE SEE A FULL LATITUDE TROF WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE PHASE PNA. PROBABLY 10+ DAYS OR SO.
5. UNTIL THE TRANSITION SHAKES OUT, THERE WILL BE TIMING ISSUES TO DEAL WITH.


AS ONE WEATHER POET ONCE SAID.....

WHEN IT WILL SNOW WILL DEPEND A LOT UPON THE TIMING OF THE DANCE.

WE'LL TAKE A GOOD LOOK AT THE TIMING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS!!


THE DWEEBER.....................;-)



My kids need to stop turning on the Air conditioning.
 
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