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I hate bad news, but we just have to get ready. MPS
Idaho's revenue picture grows darker
Lawmakers stew about the budget as they wait on new jobless figures and official tax receipts for January.
BY DAN POPKEY - dpopkey@idahostatesman.com
Edition Date: 02/04/09
Lawmakers were hit Tuesday with more sorry economic news: January state revenues came in about 13 percent lower than expected in the latest forecast, which was itself pessimistic.
Gov. Butch Otter has not released the figure, which is still preliminary and unofficial. But word of a drop of about $35 million from January's projected $267 million in revenue spread through the Legislature like pink-eye.
"It's not a question of what do we have to cut to make the budget balance," said Senate President Pro Tem Bob Geddes, R-Soda Springs. "It's more what can we afford to fund."
December revenues were down $10.5 million. If January fell $35 million, fiscal 2009 revenue will have plummeted about $400 million from the $3 billion projected when lawmakers convened in January 2008. And that's with five months left in the fiscal year, which ends June 30.
Wayne Hammon, Otter's budget director, cautioned against making too much of the $35 million figure. "Any number that's out there today is not reliable, because it changes as the Tax Commission closes its books," Hammon said. "We'd like to have a number that has a high level of confidence."
Hammon conceded that anxiety about January tax collections - the second-biggest month of the year, after April - is unprecedented. Lawmakers see it as a guide for how deeply they must cut to meet the constitutional mandate for balanced budgets.
"Everyone's consumed by this," he said.
Hammon said Otter will discuss revenues with legislative leaders and budget committee co-chairmen next week. Otter had shoulder surgery Monday and is recovering at home.
Sliding revenues are prompting lawmakers to say it's unrealistic to meet Otter's goal of preserving two-thirds of the money remaining in the state's rainy-day accounts. "Obviously, we're going to hit that harder," said House GOP Caucus Chairman Ken Roberts of McCall.
Assistant House Democratic Leader James Ruchti of Pocatello said Democrats want to tap half the $390 million in the savings accounts. Democrats also want to see two other key figures: January's unemployment rate, due out Friday, and Idaho's share of a federal stimulus package. "It's that trifecta that's keeping everybody holding their breath," Ruchti said.
House GOP leaders, including Assistant Majority Leader Scott Bedke, R-Oakley, are testing the idea of across-the-board cuts in pay for the 53,000 state workers and public school teachers as an alternative to widespread layoffs.
"That's the question floating out there: Given the alternatives, which are not good, which way would you want us to fall?" Bedke said. "The principle is we would err on the side of decreasing salaries and wages rather than (laying off) people."
Bedke pitched that idea to Idaho State University alumni at a meeting Friday in Boise, using as an example a choice between cutting workers' pay 10 percent or laying off 10 percent of the 53,000 workers. Bedke said the feedback he's getting favors pay cuts.
House Majority Leader Mike Moyle of Star met with teachers in the Meridian School District last week and asked what they would choose: Cut 200 jobs or trim pay?
"The consensus was they were willing to take a little bit of a pay cut to keep their jobs and class size down," Moyle said.
Senate leaders say it's too soon for such a calculation.
"I have heard them make that proposal," said Senate GOP Leader Bart Davis of Idaho Falls. "I've not been as warm towards it as they have. It's premature to determine what the remedy is."
Davis said the Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee needs to do its work. The committee begins setting budgets Feb. 23. "They will pick and shovel their way through and find every dime they possibly can, and I'm prepared to give them the time to do their job," Davis said.
Senate Assistant Democratic Leader Elliot Werk of Boise agreed. "JFAC is the place where those decisions should be made," he said. Werk said he is pleased House Republicans are talking about saving state jobs.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Dean Cameron of Rupert echoed Hammon, Otter's budget chief, in urging patience. "Perhaps we've got some people out in front of the train," Cameron said. "We have to define how big the hole is before we start talking about how to fill it up."
Cameron said every option is on the table, including killing programs and delaying Otter's expansion of the grocery tax credit, a $15 million initiative. "Our goal is to do the least amount of harm," he said.
Idaho's revenue picture grows darker
Lawmakers stew about the budget as they wait on new jobless figures and official tax receipts for January.
BY DAN POPKEY - dpopkey@idahostatesman.com
Edition Date: 02/04/09
Lawmakers were hit Tuesday with more sorry economic news: January state revenues came in about 13 percent lower than expected in the latest forecast, which was itself pessimistic.
Gov. Butch Otter has not released the figure, which is still preliminary and unofficial. But word of a drop of about $35 million from January's projected $267 million in revenue spread through the Legislature like pink-eye.
"It's not a question of what do we have to cut to make the budget balance," said Senate President Pro Tem Bob Geddes, R-Soda Springs. "It's more what can we afford to fund."
December revenues were down $10.5 million. If January fell $35 million, fiscal 2009 revenue will have plummeted about $400 million from the $3 billion projected when lawmakers convened in January 2008. And that's with five months left in the fiscal year, which ends June 30.
Wayne Hammon, Otter's budget director, cautioned against making too much of the $35 million figure. "Any number that's out there today is not reliable, because it changes as the Tax Commission closes its books," Hammon said. "We'd like to have a number that has a high level of confidence."
Hammon conceded that anxiety about January tax collections - the second-biggest month of the year, after April - is unprecedented. Lawmakers see it as a guide for how deeply they must cut to meet the constitutional mandate for balanced budgets.
"Everyone's consumed by this," he said.
Hammon said Otter will discuss revenues with legislative leaders and budget committee co-chairmen next week. Otter had shoulder surgery Monday and is recovering at home.
Sliding revenues are prompting lawmakers to say it's unrealistic to meet Otter's goal of preserving two-thirds of the money remaining in the state's rainy-day accounts. "Obviously, we're going to hit that harder," said House GOP Caucus Chairman Ken Roberts of McCall.
Assistant House Democratic Leader James Ruchti of Pocatello said Democrats want to tap half the $390 million in the savings accounts. Democrats also want to see two other key figures: January's unemployment rate, due out Friday, and Idaho's share of a federal stimulus package. "It's that trifecta that's keeping everybody holding their breath," Ruchti said.
House GOP leaders, including Assistant Majority Leader Scott Bedke, R-Oakley, are testing the idea of across-the-board cuts in pay for the 53,000 state workers and public school teachers as an alternative to widespread layoffs.
"That's the question floating out there: Given the alternatives, which are not good, which way would you want us to fall?" Bedke said. "The principle is we would err on the side of decreasing salaries and wages rather than (laying off) people."
Bedke pitched that idea to Idaho State University alumni at a meeting Friday in Boise, using as an example a choice between cutting workers' pay 10 percent or laying off 10 percent of the 53,000 workers. Bedke said the feedback he's getting favors pay cuts.
House Majority Leader Mike Moyle of Star met with teachers in the Meridian School District last week and asked what they would choose: Cut 200 jobs or trim pay?
"The consensus was they were willing to take a little bit of a pay cut to keep their jobs and class size down," Moyle said.
Senate leaders say it's too soon for such a calculation.
"I have heard them make that proposal," said Senate GOP Leader Bart Davis of Idaho Falls. "I've not been as warm towards it as they have. It's premature to determine what the remedy is."
Davis said the Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee needs to do its work. The committee begins setting budgets Feb. 23. "They will pick and shovel their way through and find every dime they possibly can, and I'm prepared to give them the time to do their job," Davis said.
Senate Assistant Democratic Leader Elliot Werk of Boise agreed. "JFAC is the place where those decisions should be made," he said. Werk said he is pleased House Republicans are talking about saving state jobs.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Dean Cameron of Rupert echoed Hammon, Otter's budget chief, in urging patience. "Perhaps we've got some people out in front of the train," Cameron said. "We have to define how big the hole is before we start talking about how to fill it up."
Cameron said every option is on the table, including killing programs and delaying Otter's expansion of the grocery tax credit, a $15 million initiative. "Our goal is to do the least amount of harm," he said.
