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Cook City Avalanche fatality

Snowmow

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For all those who haven't please watch the video. This situation could have happened to any of us.


Yeah. Sounds like a horrible case of wrong place wrong time. With a riding area as vast as Cooke sounds like a good idea to steer clear of all those steep areas when danger is high. Even if you plan on not riding the steep, there are just to many areas up there that aren't worth the Risk when Avi risk is high. There is plenty to ride without messing around near that stuff.
 
S

Spaarky

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Deploying an airbag is not a get out of jail free card...it helps your chances but doesn't fix the situation

I understand. I was asking to help learn from the situation. Its awful someone lost their life, I feel for his friends and family. Maybe they can someday find some peace in the accident that other sledders learned from what happened...
 

Blu Du

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what is even more sad is when you click on his wifes facebook page and see the 2 young children he left behind
 

Jeff C

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I feel like the theory of how an avy bag works is misunderstood by some. If you are standing in the runout zone, or even worse in a terrain trap an airbag isn't going to do much for you. It is only effective if you are moving with the slide, while it's acting as a liquid, to keep you at or near the surface.

Yep, you nailed it
 

Jeff C

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Discussion

I have a question:

When an entire area like Cook City gets that weak, faceted base layer near the ground, what happens to the general avalanche danger for the whole year?

Here is the thought. I have been taking trips to the mountains for almost 25 years now. I have seen these notices of weak faceted base layers many times. As the week or periods of weeks passes, the avalanche forecast seems to lessen until the next snowfall even though there is nothing to change the conditions at the base layer, unless there is a slide.

I wonder why that is?

If that initial base layer is unstable, would it not keep being unstable all year long unless there is a slide to eliminate that initial unstable base layer?

Why would the avalanche forecast not continue to keep that weak base layer in mind all season?

What changes during the season to that base layer?
 

Borderstaff

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I would venture a guess that the natural compaction of the snow from the snowfall adding up on top helps to squish the layer that is unstable.

That said. I was riding right by the area that slid in Cooke the day before. We were playing on the upper meadows but stayed away from the steeper part that did slide. Technically we could have set off that avalanche remotely but we didn't climb the face. Our group was wearing the correct gear (beacons, shovels, probes and ABS packs). But we stayed away from hills steeper than 20 degrees. The day that the slide happened we were only about a mile away playing in the meadows.

Very sad and thoughts and prayers to the family. I believe the funeral was today.

Bad things can happen fast out there. As I write I'm laid up. I caught my handlebars in the upper groin that Saturday after glancing off a hidden boulder. I limped myself back into town and went to the first responder station (Buns n Beds). The injury was pretty bad and I ended up going to Livingston by ambulance. I'll recover but it will take a while.
 

skibreeze

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I have a question:

When an entire area like Cook City gets that weak, faceted base layer near the ground, what happens to the general avalanche danger for the whole year?

Here is the thought. I have been taking trips to the mountains for almost 25 years now. I have seen these notices of weak faceted base layers many times. As the week or periods of weeks passes, the avalanche forecast seems to lessen until the next snowfall even though there is nothing to change the conditions at the base layer, unless there is a slide.

I wonder why that is?

If that initial base layer is unstable, would it not keep being unstable all year long unless there is a slide to eliminate that initial unstable base layer?

Why would the avalanche forecast not continue to keep that weak base layer in mind all season?

What changes during the season to that base layer?

Those bad layers do typically stay there all year long. The reason that the avy danger goes down is that the layers on top will get stronger and make the bad layer harder to trigger. This is sometimes why you see multiple tracks on a slope before it finally goes.
 

Solarguy

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Jun 23, 2011
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I have a question:

When an entire area like Cook City gets that weak, faceted base layer near the ground, what happens to the general avalanche danger for the whole year?

Here is the thought. I have been taking trips to the mountains for almost 25 years now. I have seen these notices of weak faceted base layers many times. As the week or periods of weeks passes, the avalanche forecast seems to lessen until the next snowfall even though there is nothing to change the conditions at the base layer, unless there is a slide.

I wonder why that is?

If that initial base layer is unstable, would it not keep being unstable all year long unless there is a slide to eliminate that initial unstable base layer?

Why would the avalanche forecast not continue to keep that weak base layer in mind all season?

What changes during the season to that base layer?
Good question and the answer is that the unstable layer does remain a concern for the rest of the winter but after the upper layers adhere to each other and become more stable it becomes increasingly more difficult (we hope) to trigger/ propagate all the way down to the unstable layer. Each new storm or wind loading event has a reactivation element to the ease of triggering this layer and we see this within the avi ratings and snowpack discussions by the professionals. Like snow bridges in Glacier travel, they can become fairly trustworthy (but we rope up because we don't know for sure). Unfortunately, even with continued stabilization of the upper layers of the winter snowpack the "sleeping monster exists" and if triggered will cause a very large avalanche. As the upper layer snowpack stabilizes and becomes fairly trustworthy (snow bridge example) we move into a "low probability - very high consequence" scenario. This is a much more dangerous/deadly scenario than the high probability - low consequence scenario we often encounter where we have a reactive layer that is very easy to trigger but is only 3-4" of recent light storm snow as an example. The low consequence part of the equation is if we do trigger this layer it will not have the power, volume or depth in most cases to bury us under a huge deposit of varying densities of snow and is much less likely to kill us. The low probability - high consequence scenario can fool us into a false sense of security as the "snow bridge" over the top of "the sleeping monster" may be stable in most areas but still have many hidden triggers that remain all season and if triggered will in many or most cases have deadly consequences. This type of avalanche is like the ones you read about in Europe that run "full path" and bury villages that normally would not have snow from a slide path come within 1/2 a mile. Food for thought and something all of us should be aware of in our decision making.
Anytime we lose a fellow rider in our community we should all honor this brother and use this tragedy to help others become more aware. The facts are it was rated "high danger" for the area they were riding, one poor decision is all it takes to lose a friend or loved one. We all need to discuss the current conditions BEFORE we ride and make educated decisions to keep our group safe. RIP brother
 

Jeff C

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Good question and the answer is that the unstable layer does remain a concern for the rest of the winter but after the upper layers adhere to each other and become more stable it becomes increasingly more difficult (we hope) to trigger/ propagate all the way down to the unstable layer. Each new storm or wind loading event has a reactivation element to the ease of triggering this layer and we see this within the avi ratings and snowpack discussions by the professionals. Like snow bridges in Glacier travel, they can become fairly trustworthy (but we rope up because we don't know for sure). Unfortunately, even with continued stabilization of the upper layers of the winter snowpack the "sleeping monster exists" and if triggered will cause a very large avalanche. As the upper layer snowpack stabilizes and becomes fairly trustworthy (snow bridge example) we move into a "low probability - very high consequence" scenario. This is a much more dangerous/deadly scenario than the high probability - low consequence scenario we often encounter where we have a reactive layer that is very easy to trigger but is only 3-4" of recent light storm snow as an example. The low consequence part of the equation is if we do trigger this layer it will not have the power, volume or depth in most cases to bury us under a huge deposit of varying densities of snow and is much less likely to kill us. The low probability - high consequence scenario can fool us into a false sense of security as the "snow bridge" over the top of "the sleeping monster" may be stable in most areas but still have many hidden triggers that remain all season and if triggered will in many or most cases have deadly consequences. This type of avalanche is like the ones you read about in Europe that run "full path" and bury villages that normally would not have snow from a slide path come within 1/2 a mile. Food for thought and something all of us should be aware of in our decision making.
Anytime we lose a fellow rider in our community we should all honor this brother and use this tragedy to help others become more aware. The facts are it was rated "high danger" for the area they were riding, one poor decision is all it takes to lose a friend or loved one. We all need to discuss the current conditions BEFORE we ride and make educated decisions to keep our group safe. RIP brother

SG

Thanks for the great explanation. That makes perfect sense now that you explained it......

Merry Christmas
 
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