Forcast for Dec.

[TruckeePoo]

whats a snow ratio? Is it the ratio of water compared to snow depth?

Correct. Ration of snow fall in inches to liquid precipitaiton in inches...eg rain.

Latest from National Weather Service...http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=CAZ072&warncounty=CAC057&firewxzone=CAZ271&local_place1=2+Miles+NNE+Truckee+CA&product1=Special+Weather+Statement

Looking Good!

 

[WatchThis!!!]

Typical utah snow runs about 6-9% density... translation, 1" of rain = 14-16" pow pow. The Rubies can get storms that will be 4-5% density. You think utah pow is dry and fluffy you should see the rubies on a very cold dumper storm... but hey lets keep that a secret plus there is too many rocks out there anyways!

Did i mention 8-12" today in Utah? hahaha suckers!!!

Remember that day?

Yaaay

 

[Longtrack Lady]

Isn't it pretty!!!

 

[WatchThis!!!]

WOW Amanda thats delicious!
BUT

I still beat you to the first ride WITHOUT carnage!
Hehe

 

[WatchThis!!!]

We get snow saturday and sunday!
& Im riding!

 

[Longtrack Lady]

Bring it on my favorite Wyominnnnnn. LOL

 

[donbrown]

Wednesday, December 10, 2008 6:57:19 PM

FORECAST UPDATE:

PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR MAMMOTH LAKES:

1 TO 3 INCHES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BY LATE AFTERNOON......
12 TO 18 INCHES BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AFTERNOON
1 TO 2 FEET BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING....UPDATE TOMORROW PM ON THIS PERIOD.

It is suppose to rain in Los Angeles from Saturday to Thursday.

If it rains that long ... I can't remember it ever exer raining for six days straight in Los Angeles.

 

[HiMark Racing]

Well, if all goes well..Who's up for a ride on Sunday?? Silvertip where would you recommend riding this early??

 

[Anthony Oberti]

ROADS ONLY....and you should be fine.

 

[silvertip]

Well, if all goes well..Who's up for a ride on Sunday?? Silvertip where would you recommend riding this early??

Depending on if you want to chain up or not
Chain up = Cisco or LTS
No Chains = China Wall for a road ride.

I could be wrong but I would think Chain Control would be Atla or Drum on Sunday. Maybe even Colfax.

Their's going to be lots of Land Mines out there

 

[HiMark Racing]

Hmmm, I might play it safe and ride Hwy 4 (Bear Valley) and just take a mental health day and take Monday off and stay up there..

 

[donbrown]

Mammoth Dweeb report

Thursday, December 11, 2008 8:32:57 AM

"VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND"


FORECAST UPDATE THURSDAY AM:

UPDATED PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR MAMMOTH LAKES AT 9,000 FEET:

1 TO 3 INCHES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AM......
10 TO 20 INCHES BETWEEN SUNDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING

SNOW TO WATER RATIONS 20 TO 30:1 LIKELY OVER HIGHER ELEVS

 

[ChesterMtnSports]

ROADS ONLY....and you should be fine.

Tell that to Smash. He has some nice scratches on his side panels from side hilling in 6 inches of snow.

 

[WILLIS]

If Sunday turns out to be ridable (Roads) im in, LTS or China wall are great. I plan on riding all next week, so PM me if you can join!

 

[HiMark Racing]

Sounds like a plan... I'm in!

 

[silvertip]

Let the SNOW Begin

Are we ready to start our engine?????
The new Sac. AFD had this little tid-bit

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF FEET OF SNOW AT PLACES LIKE GRASS VALLEY AND POLLOCK PINES WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE UP TO SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW ACCUMULATE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD

 

[donbrown]

80 MPH WINDS EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF THIS STORM.

Thursday, December 11, 2008 5:14:13 PM



"VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND BECOMING HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY" BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.


FORECAST UPDATE THURSDAY EVENING:

UPDATED SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR MAMMOTH LAKES AT 9,000 FEET:

4 TO 6 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
15 TO 30 INCHES BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SNOW TO WATER RATIONS 20 TO 30:1 LIKELY OVER HIGHER ELEVS


THE MAIN CHANGES IN BOTH 00Z AND 06Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF WERE IN THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE FAR WEST. THE MAIN MESSAGE IS THAT THEY ARE A BIT LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO THE FACT THAT 500MB WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND....THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING A BIT MORE OVER LAND........HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF WESTERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND SO WE WILL STILL GET A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS WAS SHOWN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD YESTERDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY APPEAR TO THE THE BEST DAYS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN A COLD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ONE TO TWO FEET SEEMS REASONABLE AT THE MOMENT FOR THE UPPER ELEVATIONS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

THE TWIST IN THE PATTERN SEEMS TO HAVE A GREATER EFFECT ON HOW THE JET WILL BE BEHAVING. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING A 150KNOTT JET WILL BE EFFECTING MAMMOTH...WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE FRONT RIGHT EXIT REGION. ANTECEDENT WARMTH FROM OUR CURRENT WEATHER AND THE DYNAMICS FROM A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HAS PROMPTED THE NWS TO HOIST HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ABOUT SUNRISE HERE LOCALLY. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE RARE SITUATIONS WHERE THE UPPER JET CAN BE PULLED DOWN TO THE SURFACE SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A "TROPO-FOLD" WITH THE JET INTO OUR AREA ABOUT SUNRISE SATURDAY.

HERE IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE WSFORNO DISCUSSION WITH A TECHNICAL EXPLANATION.

"30AGL NAM12 WINDS WERE 50+KT ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA FROM I-80 SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONO COUNTY WITH 80+KT AT THE RIDGES. CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE WRF SHOWED WELL DEVELOPED STANDING WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MONO COUNTY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS IS ABOUT THE TIME 150KT JET AND TROPOPAUSE FOLD NOSE INTO THE REGION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONT."

THE SCREAMING MESSAGE....IS TO SECURE ALL ITEMS OUTSIDE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS COULD GUST TO HURRICANE FORCE LOCALLY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MONO COUNTY.


"THE DWEEBS CRITERIA" FOR 24 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HERE IN THE MAMMOTH AREA AT 8000 FEET.
A. LIGHT 1 TO 6 INCHES
B. MODERATE 6+ TO 18 INCHES
C. HEAVY 18+ INCHES TO 36 INCHES
D. VERY HEAVY 36+ INCHES TO 48 INCHES
E. *EXCESSIVE 4 FEET+ IN 24 HOURS

* THIS IS KNOWN TO HAPPEN ONLY A FEW TIMES WITHIN A 10 YEAR PERIOD

 

[West Coast Sleds]

80 MPH WINDS EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF THIS STORM.

Thursday, December 11, 2008 5:14:13 PM



"VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND BECOMING HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY" BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.


FORECAST UPDATE THURSDAY EVENING:

UPDATED SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR MAMMOTH LAKES AT 9,000 FEET:

4 TO 6 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
15 TO 30 INCHES BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SNOW TO WATER RATIONS 20 TO 30:1 LIKELY OVER HIGHER ELEVS


THE MAIN CHANGES IN BOTH 00Z AND 06Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF WERE IN THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE FAR WEST. THE MAIN MESSAGE IS THAT THEY ARE A BIT LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO THE FACT THAT 500MB WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND....THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING A BIT MORE OVER LAND........HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF WESTERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND SO WE WILL STILL GET A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS WAS SHOWN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD YESTERDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY APPEAR TO THE THE BEST DAYS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN A COLD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ONE TO TWO FEET SEEMS REASONABLE AT THE MOMENT FOR THE UPPER ELEVATIONS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

THE TWIST IN THE PATTERN SEEMS TO HAVE A GREATER EFFECT ON HOW THE JET WILL BE BEHAVING. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING A 150KNOTT JET WILL BE EFFECTING MAMMOTH...WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE FRONT RIGHT EXIT REGION. ANTECEDENT WARMTH FROM OUR CURRENT WEATHER AND THE DYNAMICS FROM A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HAS PROMPTED THE NWS TO HOIST HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ABOUT SUNRISE HERE LOCALLY. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE RARE SITUATIONS WHERE THE UPPER JET CAN BE PULLED DOWN TO THE SURFACE SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A "TROPO-FOLD" WITH THE JET INTO OUR AREA ABOUT SUNRISE SATURDAY.

HERE IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE WSFORNO DISCUSSION WITH A TECHNICAL EXPLANATION.

"30AGL NAM12 WINDS WERE 50+KT ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA FROM I-80 SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONO COUNTY WITH 80+KT AT THE RIDGES. CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE WRF SHOWED WELL DEVELOPED STANDING WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MONO COUNTY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS IS ABOUT THE TIME 150KT JET AND TROPOPAUSE FOLD NOSE INTO THE REGION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONT."

THE SCREAMING MESSAGE....IS TO SECURE ALL ITEMS OUTSIDE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS COULD GUST TO HURRICANE FORCE LOCALLY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MONO COUNTY.


"THE DWEEBS CRITERIA" FOR 24 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HERE IN THE MAMMOTH AREA AT 8000 FEET.
A. LIGHT 1 TO 6 INCHES
B. MODERATE 6+ TO 18 INCHES
C. HEAVY 18+ INCHES TO 36 INCHES
D. VERY HEAVY 36+ INCHES TO 48 INCHES
E. *EXCESSIVE 4 FEET+ IN 24 HOURS

* THIS IS KNOWN TO HAPPEN ONLY A FEW TIMES WITHIN A 10 YEAR PERIOD

Thanks captin buzzzkill.(lol)

 

[Bart]

Where is Smasher? I know its not a good idea to talk about the weather before it happens, but Smasher, has to be getting excited. Last time I got this excited. I got married!

 

[HiMark Racing]

Well, there goes the Sunday ride plans...Looks like Sunday night going into Monday.