Forcast for Dec.

[silvertip]

Great Lunch

Well, there goes the Sunday ride plans...Looks like Sunday night going into Monday.

Greg, It was real nice to see you and Craig today. And have lunch with you guys. I hope Craig got his sled back today???? I sure don't look like we are going to get much before next Mon. Talk to later about riding. (I hope)

 

[HiMark Racing]

John, it was very nice..Thanks again for lunch..very kewl place..No Craig wasn't able to get his sled..they needed to order some more parts..(I'm sure theres a good Polaris joke in there someplace ) Mine on the other hand is ready to climb..suspension came out real nice..Now if this storm would just hurry up!!

 

[donbrown]

Saturday, December 13, 2008 7:21:55 AM

7:15 SATURDAY UPDATE....STRONGEST WINDS STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS MORNING NOW....10:00AM INTO 11:00AM PST.

MAMMOTHWEATHER.COM DATA NOW FUNCTIONING...EXCEPT FOR WEBCAM




INTER-SEASONAL OUTLOOK:

LATEST ED BERRY OUTLOOK TELLS A STORY OF THE GWO SHIFTING TO PHASES 2-4....ANYTIME DURING THE LATTER HALF OF DECEMBER......MID MONTH? THIS WESTWARD SHIFT OF TROPICAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CREATE DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE RIDGE TO 150 WEST, AT ANYTIME DURING THE LATTER HALF OF DECEMBER, LEADING TO A LONG WAVE TROF OFF THE WEST COAST......I.E. STORMINESS FOR THE SIERRA. THIS IS A VERY COLD SNOWY PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA. HE ALSO BELIEVES THAT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO LAST WINTER MAY DEVELOP FOR JANUARY, THUS JANUARY IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN PRECIPITATION.

DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS...............

 

[snowrdr]

Well, it is snowing very heavy here in South Reno right now. Just hope the mountains are getting thumped. Nothing like a BBQ in a snowstorm!!!

 

[donbrown]

Mammoth forecast 100 inches by January 1st !!!


Sunday, December 14, 2008

WINTER STORM WARNINGS HOISTED FOR TONIGHT...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.....10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE TOWN OF MAMMOTH WITH UP TO 40 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE CREST. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE 395 CORRIDOR NORTH TONIGHT.

A DEEP COLD UPPER LOW OFF WASHINGTON COAST IS PROGGED TO TRACK SSE BEFORE OPENING INTO A TROF OVER NORTHERN CA TUESDAY MORNING.....AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC...THIS WILL TRACK THE ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS BEEN COMING DOWN THE WEST COAST FROM NNW.....MORE OVER WATER AND WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND MOVE IT INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL PICK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BE HEAVY BY LATE EVENING. AS MENTIONED A FEW DAYS AGO, THE GFS OFTEN UNDERPLAYS THE PRECIP IN THIS PATTERN....SO I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THREE FEET OR A BIT MORE ABOVE 10000 FEET BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEW OPERATIONAL GFS 12Z HAS THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING MORE EAST NOW. SO CONFIDENCE ANY ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SUNDAY IS NOT GOOD. UNSETTLED WOULD BE A BETTER TERM.

THE LONGER RANGE PROGS FROM THIS MORNINGS 12Z SUNDAY GFS RUN, CONTINUE THE TREND OF RETROGRESSION OF THE LONG RANGE RIDGE....TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THERE IS AN AMPLE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE LONG WAVE EASTERN PACIFIC STRUCTURE WEEK TWO. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME WETTER AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THIS MORNING, THAT WE COULD HAVE WELL OVER 100 INCHES OF SNOW FALL ON MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN BY DECEMBERS END.

 

[jlowe]

OK...getting lots of hot intel right now. DUMPING at shaver lake. ashbrook is on the plows and said its a white out.

i'm getting reports of heavy, blizzard like snow down to Yosemite Lakes Park which is about 1800 feet. Oakhurst and Bass Lake are getting pounded and its just started in the last 3 hours.

report from the Channel 30 weather guys is to hang on for the next 24 hours...they are expecting 30 inches here (up high) by tomorrow night! let's hope it keeps up!

jeff

 

[Anthony Oberti]

Snowing in Auburn right now.....sticking about 3-4miles up the road!!!

 

[jlowe]

we got right in the pipe here in central cali...the radar is bright-banding like i haven't seen in a long time.

we're now getting reports of over 2 feet at bass lake (3500). that is unconfirmed and a little suspect if you ask me but the weather guys here are updating the snow accumulation numbers every half hour. they are saying 3 to 5 feet above 6K by tomorrow night now.

this thing is thumpin' after all. what's it doing on top of 80?

jeff

 

[donbrown]

we got right in the pipe here in central cali...the radar is bright-banding like i haven't seen in a long time.

we're now getting reports of over 2 feet at bass lake (3500). that is unconfirmed and a little suspect if you ask me but the weather guys here are updating the snow accumulation numbers every half hour. they are saying 3 to 5 feet above 6K by tomorrow night now.

this thing is thumpin' after all. what's it doing on top of 80?

jeff

Nice !!!

Mammoth website reporting 20 inches last 24 hours since 0800 dec 15

Bear Valley ... well see for yourself.


http://www.ourbv.com/index.cgi/Webcams

 

[HiMark Racing]

Just tried my luck at Bear Valley...3 ft of fresh powder..I couldn't get on top of it..there was no base..and it really sucked..but the drinks at the local watering hole made the trip..I would wait if you are thinking of it..

 

[CatHill]

Bear Valley -

Greg -

How far up the road did you go?
Was it groomed?

Steve

 

[HiMark Racing]

Went to the gate at Lake Alpine..Nope it wasn't groomed...I suspect it will be somewhat on Thursday as Lake Alpine Lodge will be opening then.

 

[CatHill]

Greg -

Thanks for the report. When you mention a water holes, I thought you might have stop at the Alpine lodge. There were snowmobiles in the Bear Valley Snowmobile Rental webcam today think they might start grooming by this weekend.

 

[donbrown]

Greg -

Thanks for the report. When you mention a water holes, I thought you might have stop at the Alpine lodge. There were snowmobiles in the Bear Valley Snowmobile Rental webcam today think they might start grooming by this weekend.

Where does Bear Valley Snowmobile Rental get the money for grooming?

If it is from the state OHV money ... no money released for any work prior to 19 December. That mewans all the SNO-PARKS won't be plowed nor groomed with state money until after 19 December.

 

[Sierrarider]

15 to 18 inches in Shaver Lake at 3:00 pm today. Another 12 on the way by tomorrow. I'm guessing Tamarack and Hunington at least 3 feey by end of Tues. I'll be riding Wenesday and Thursday. Been waiting for it. I am ready to ride !!!

 

[silvertip]

Riding tomorrow

HiMark Racing
Some of us off of WCS are going to be riding Cisco in the morning if you want to come.

 

[HiMark Racing]

Thanks John,

Just got back from 2 days at Bear and I'm beat..maybe towards the end of the week..I'd like to see if this stuff will set up a little better..

 

[donbrown]

Mammoth Report


Thursday, December 18, 2008 7:12:17 AM

7:00AM UPDATE:

QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z, 06Z MODELS AS WELL AS THE NEW WRF 12Z THURSDAY RUN SHOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM A BIT DRIER THEN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. UPDATED QPF ESTIMATES AT 20:1 SNO TO H20 WOULD SUGGEST 3 TO 5 INCHES IN TOWN AND 5 TO 10 INCHES ON THE MOUNTAIN PLOTS. PLENTY OF REINFORCING COLD AIR WITH THIS ONE.....SO KEEP THE FIRES ROARING!!


THIS WEEKEND:
NEXT SYSTEM FOR END OF WEEK SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP SPEED WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY NOW. THIS APPEARS TO BE A WETTER SYSTEM WITH AMOUNTS GREATER THEN A FOOT. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE UP ON THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM TO 5500 FEET AND THE TREND WILL BE UP FOR FOLLOWING SYSTEMS....BY THE CHRISTMAS STORM....SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AVERAGE 6000-6500 FEET....POSSIBLY RISING A BIT MORE INTO THAT WEEKEND.

LOTS MORE SNOW ON THE WAY!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[spitfire]

Thanx for the lunch John. Great seeing you as well. Still no sled as of yet. Hoping to pick it up Saturday and finish breaking the motor in. God I am sick not to be out there right now...............sooooooo sick


Craig