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Avy Forecasters: how we see it ...

A
Mar 21, 2009
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I’m as excited as anyone to see new snow; however, a series of close calls have us worried. An early winter with above average snow depths mean it’s prime avalanche season, without much run-up. Here are some thoughts to help you plan your weekend. And pass it on to those who are pushing a little too hard:

• It’s storming in the mountains. Heavy snow, strong winds, and warming temperatures are rapidly increasing the likelihood of avalanches.
• It’s only November. That means young, soft snow that hasn’t had time to gain strength. It may look like mid-winter up high, but the snow is almost certainly not as good as it appears.
• We’re watching a crust layer that formed on Halloween. We don’t know much about it yet, but it has the makings of a persistent problem, especially in the South Rockies and the Purcell Mtns west of Golden and Invermere. This layer increases our concerns.
• Tuesday’s close call near Revelstoke saw an entire group caught and buried. Luckily two of the sledders were “only” partially buried. They were able to dig out their fully buried buddies, and get the one who wasn’t breathing going again. Read the account here. This is only the latest in a series of near misses.
• Popular areas that usually get totally compacted by heavy traffic have not seen much use yet. Avalanche conditions may be primed in these spots.

Here’s what I’m thinking as I make my plans:

• It’s possible to have fun on moderate terrain: don’t even think about big-lines, movie lines, or modern lines. Pick uniform terrain less than 30 degrees.
• Smooth slopes with deeper snow help you avoid trips to the ski shop, sled shop, or emergency department. Unfortunately, these same slopes (grassy, rock slabs, scree, etc) can slide with as little as 50 cm of snow which means avalanches are more likely. This is why it is important to stay on low angle slopes.
• Avoid hazards above you and terrain traps below.
• Manage your group: talk about your thinking, one-at-a-time on slopes, know your escape route, and only re-group in safe spots.
• Practice with your beacon and have a simulated rescue drill. If your buddies haven’t practiced – how are they going to dig you out?

Recognize this may be a short-term problem that helps in the long run. Choosing appropriate terrain for now might be the cost for great riding after it clears up, cools off, and the snow has time to strengthen. If you’re willing to think more than a week into the future, this stormy weather might be really good news!

ilya storm
forecaster@avalanche.ca
www.avalanche.ca
 
M

mtn mike on boost

Well-known member
Nov 26, 2007
1,498
291
83
Woodinville,WA
any chance you will be following up on this thread as you see things change?
( for the better or worse )

maybe this is something you normally do, but i don't recall seeing anything like this before.....thanks mm
 
S
Oct 7, 2009
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Thank you for writing this, I'm sure I'm not the only one who just didn't understand why the Avalanche hazard signs were marked "Extreme". From what I have been seeing in the forecasts and weather reports, my riding areas have been consistently between-5 and -15C, with steady snow. At what temperature should I begin to rest easier knowing the snowpack is stabilizing?
 
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