Another Avalanche 3/3/18

I always find it interesting how people can all wish to live to ride another day yet can have such massively different risk tolerances. I would look at that horribly obvious massive terrain trap with that behemoth of snow above and it wouldn’t even for a second be considered a spot to tear around on.
Something I see a lot, and no disrespect intended, but from what I’m reading here could be partially happening in this situation, and it’s extememly easy to fall prey to, is complacency. People ride areas and they “know it like the back of their hand” so they feel more comfortable every ride there when nothing bad happens. “Hey I’ve never seen that ridge slide ever, it’s good to go”.
I believe that’s a big hurdle to overcome for anyone, training out the wazoo or tons of experience, won’t matter, as soon as you start feeling comfortable in a repeated situation your guard goes down a bit each time. Out there you have to think and reasses EACH TIME because each time out in the same spot it IS a different set of variables to factor into a decision. It’s not hey same as last week, or I’ve never seen this slide.
Nature can make you humble in an instant, and it always wins if you don’t think through each day as a new one.
Don’t get complacent.
Sad day to hear of the losses.

graveler said:

Avy danger might have been low to Mod in the morning but that changed Significantly when the full sun hit that southern exposure and the temps hit 40 degs. There is normally Avalanche debris covering the access to that chute and box canyon, but even if there wasn't it's a terrain trap that rarely takes prisoners... The avalanche forecast is just that, if you live by it you'll probably die by it....

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It was actually considerable with one region that was moderate on nwac that day. With someone getting killed the weekend before you would think better decisions would have been made.

^^^^ it was considerable above tree line that day, moderate below tree line for central east. Not arguing, we might be saying the same thing.


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Well I’ve got a few comments for this thread but I’ll let most of it sit over night before I post.
First, my heart goes out to the friends and families of the people who’ve been killed. So sad. The young man who survived is probably crippled for life. The road back from an injury like this is long and painful. Likely he will feel the metal in his leg every day for the rest of his life especially after 40. Getting hurt badly isn’t the worst part of it. Surviving something bad like this isn’t the worst part of it. Having to learn how to walk without a limp, doing PT for a year or two, enduring the pain of the reconstructive surgery and living with some level of pain for the rest of your life is the worst of it. No one thinks about this and there is so much ignorance that looks like courage to people who’ve never been seriously hurt.
The other thing no one has mentioned is there seems to be no one following the basic safety rule of one rider on the hill at a time. We’ve got a whole group involved in this Avy. There was one uninjured person to rescue 3 injured and buried riders. If the guy who sprang the trap was the only guy on the hill(ravine, terrain trap, etc) we’d have one injured rider and 3 other guys with an exciting story or rescuing their buddy.
And this one is so obvious. DONT PARK IN THE RUNOUT ZONE OF A HILL. EVER. That rule would have saved a life and several injuries last weekend.
Last. There is not one good reason to not wearing an Avy pack. Every single time I hear the stupid asinine comments like “it makes you take more chances” or “it’s like a license to ride stupid” I want to skull smash the idiot saying that stupidity and bury them under 4-5’ of snow. It’s safety gear. The best safety gear we have. 97% of the time someone can deploy a bag in an Avy they don’t get buried. It’s not a guarantee of anything but those odds are irrefutable. In 2018 if you aren’t riding with a bag that you’ve practiced with you are not doing everything you can to bring your butt home every time you ride. Or in other words you are a freaking idiot.

jvb said:

It was actually considerable with one region that was moderate on nwac that day. With someone getting killed the weekend before you would think better decisions would have been made.

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The guys comment referred to avalanche danger as being low Or his perception of it, when it comes to other people being killed, The cattle Mentality is in full effect here as Usual, Some of the comments I've read here and on Facebook is quite shocking, The idea that your invincible wearing a Beacon and a pack is just crazy as going up that Particular chute or anything like it but not surprising.

For all the new people and old, the idea that you can call 911 and somebody's going to save you, is a complete waste of air time on your Satellite phone, They don't have the Equipment or the skills to get you unless the skies are clear for a helicopter...choose your friends wisely and avoiding areas you ride...that can kill you

really gravy

I thought a couple times we hit the waterfall up above rays was sketchy. total terrain trap . but you two monkeys are perfect. or was your slush mess on your arctic cat with roger just a fluke.
hypocrite

Freefall I don’t understand your post. Who’s that directed at?

why would you

you re name is not art

Matte Murder said:

Freefall I don’t understand your post. Who’s that directed at?

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No kidding! That post lost me

Pointless


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my condolences to the family.

pointless. not to me

having ridden with art and andy and seeing arts comments on here.




not pointless to me.
maybe you others.


gravy pointing out the obvious.


no chit

Thanks for all the informative info guys. Way to keep this on point and maybe save a life.

Totally Tully said:

The avy forecast takes into account the temps and snowfall... It doesn't take into account that we got freezing rain that created a 4" slab of ice and since then several feet of snow fell on top with several feet under it as well.
Nothing is going to bond to that ice layer until maybe late spring when it melts a few feet and all turns to slush.
This is not a safe year at all. More deaths than last year already.

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Actually keeping track of persistent weak layers and forecasting when and under what conditions they may become reactive is just as much a part of the avy forecast as is the recent snow and temps. NWAC tries to keep track of any buried weak layers and how far down they are as well as identify which ones are still reactive based on field reports of slide activity. Very difficult as these layers can have huge spatial variability between even small zones let alone across the entire NW. I would bet NWAC recorded that rain crust and the date it formed and that it was considered in the avy forecast but as those layers get buried deeper and seem dormant its very hard to predict. This time of the year is probably the hardest for any forecasting because of the variety of surface conditions going on right now and big temperature spread between the north central and southern ranges. If it snows again this spring look for melt freeze layers from the last few days to be a problem.

freefall said:

I thought a couple times we hit the waterfall up above rays was sketchy. total terrain trap . but you two monkeys are perfect. or was your slush mess on your arctic cat with roger just a fluke.
hypocrite

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The water fall is considerably a different type of terrain but welcome to 10 years ago, you're apparently stuck in the past while the rest of us have learned from our mistakes

Just listened to KOMO interview now, it
Was only a moderate avy risk that morning.......lot
Of opinions on this one but I say again the mountains don’t ****ing
Care, there is just nothing left to say....

sidehil said:

Just listened to KOMO interview now, it

Was only a moderate avy risk that morning.......lot

Of opinions on this one but I say again the mountains don’t ****ing

Care, there is just nothing left to say....

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That is true mostly. Above tree line it was stated as considerable, below treeline it was moderate. I was in the immediate area and checked it as I was leaving Cle Elum.


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