Major Dumping possible in Truckee 1-3 MAR

[donbrown]

Depending on where this storm comes from the Pacic Ocean (right now Marin County) it will hit the Sierras and do a dumpin.

As of this morning it is projecterd to hit Truckee BOREAL area. 3-4 feet possible by Friday morning 2 MAR. Lake Tahoe 1 foot at the lake.

Snow levels start at 5000 feet suggesting it will be a powder light snow.


Mammoth is expected 6-12 inches.

Very Windy System Headed For The High Country….High Wind Warnings Hoisted This Morning Beginning 7:00am Wednesday….6 to 12 inches of New Snow Expected for Upper Elevations Wednesday……Future Pattern Showing Several Trofs Effecting West Coast Over The Next Two Weeks….
Tuesday February 28, 2012
Posted at 7:35 am by Howard
.A Nice Baroclinic Leaf has developed this morning off the coast of the pacific NW. This is a sign of a rapidly deepening upper Trof. The nose of 120Knott upper jet is approaching Northern California and will come in Just north of the Bay Area then across to Tahoe. Again Tahoe will get the lions share of snow with this one with up to a foot around the Lake and some of the guidance suggesting 3 to 4 feet in the Mountains NW of the Lake though Thursday.
The southern portions of Mono County will be under the Front Right Exit region of the upper jet during the best forcing…. The QPF stated by CRFC is showing 1.2 inches for Yosemite with amounts of .46 at Huntington Lake through Thursday. 6 inches to a foot. The freezing level is about 5K. So the Snow will be pretty dry and will fluff out. Mammoth is between these two area but a bit closer to Yosemite. So considering the freezing level, Mammoth Mt could get between 6 and 12 inches of snowfall between tomorrow Am and Thursday Ngt. The area between 395 and the Village between 2 and 6 inches…same time frame.Winds will be important to note as gusts in the 50 to as high as 80 mph in the windiest areas are possible Wednesday for travel along the highway 395 corridor. Winds over the crest are expected to reach 115 to 120mph Wednesday into Wednesday night. High wind warnings go into effect for Mono County at 7:00am Wednesday and at 10:00am for the Owens Valley. The Owens Valley will experience strong down-slope winds in excess of 60 mph later in the day…..out of the WNW. Winds will peak about dinner time 1 MAR…..then slowly decrease…..

 

[Track Man]

Now your talking. That what we need

 

[donbrown]

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/EP1/IR/&NUMBLOOP=5

SAtellite shows this a very narrow focused storm

 

[SnowDevil]

lets just hope it pans out and cross your fingers for another one behind it!

 

[donbrown]

Satellite shows storm still on approach to Bay area.

 

[Aussie Niko]

sweet, just in time, riding tomorrow

 

[donbrown]

Is it dumping?

 

[nicholasapp]

On and off snow so far in Truckee, accumulated and inch or so. windy and super cold

 

[Track Man]

Just came in to LTS and it is dumping at 7000 feet. THANK YOU

 

[juiced4ever]

Just came down Donner summit on I 80. Two plus feet in wind load zones already. Less on leeward sides. Near white out conditions due to blowing snow. Visibility ranged 15-50 feet during gusts. Drive safe if ur out and about today in the truckee north lake area

 

[donbrown]

Caltrans Cameras on I-80 look pretty nice.

 

[donbrown]

Looks like Bear Valley received 1-2 plus feet in the parking lot.

http://www.ourbv.com/index.cgi/Webcams

http://www.ourbv.com/index.cgi/Webcams

 

[donbrown]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
342 PM PST WED FEB 29 2012

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA HAVE BECOME VERY SHOWERY BEHIND THE
MAIN COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STREAMING ACROSS
THE COASTAL RANGE INTO THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ORIENTED SW-NE HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL SAC
VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BANDS ALONG
WITH A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES. BLUE CANYON HAS HAD CONTINUOUS SNOW
SINCE TUESDAY EVENING...HEAVY AT TIMES. AN OBSERVATION STATION
NEAR BLUE CANYON INDICATED THAT LATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE JUST
OVER 17 INCHES WITH ABOUT 1.6 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WHICH
TRANSLATES TO A SNOW RATIO AROUND 10 TO 1. OUR KINGVALE SPOTTER AT
6200 FEET REPORTED 17 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH THE
MOISTURE PLUME DIRECTED UP INTO THAT REGION ALL DAY IT IS QUITE
LIKELY THAT THEY HAVE PUSHED OVER THE 2 FOOT MARK BY NOW.

NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE WESTERN SIERRA
OR FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM
2000-3000 FT.
UPDATED RAIN TOTALS ACROSS THE VALLEY INCLUDE 0.67 INCHES AT
SACRAMENTO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...0.44" DOWNTOWN SACRAMENTO...0.57"
LINCOLN...0.50" AT REDDING AIRPORT...0.14" STOCKTON
AIRPORT...0.23" AT MODESTO AIRPORT. IN GENERAL...MOST RAIN
OBSERVATIONS ARE RANGING BETWEEN 0.25 TO AROUND 0.5 INCHES WITH
TOTALS APPROACHING 0.75 INCHES FOR SITES IMPACTED BY THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. SINCE THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW...SEVERAL VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE TOTALS BETWEEN
0.5-0.75" ONCE THIS STORM IS OVER.

AFTER INTERMITTENT SHOWERS TODAY...THE NEXT BURST OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD OCCUR VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MODELS STILL SHOW A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO
NORCAL BETWEEN 4 AM TO NOON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD RE-INVIGORATE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN SIERRA. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
TO TAPER OFF QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CELL OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. JBB

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

A DRIER AND WARMER WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR INTERIOR NORCAL AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST SAT/SUN. CENTRAL VALLEY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH 70 DEGREES BY SUN...WITH PLENTY OF
SNOWMELT IN THE MOUNTAINS AS HIGH ELEVATION TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH FLATTENING THE RIDGE MONDAY
AND SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY MIDWEEK. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT AN OPEN WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW
AND BRUSHING OUR AREA TUE/EARLY WED...ALTHOUGH THEY VARY IN THE
AMPLIFICATION ON THE TROUGH. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH A DEEPER AND COLDER SYSTEM. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHICH HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TUE/WED. -DVC

 

[donbrown]

Bulk of storm is over
up to a foot more possible at crest from Mammoth to Truckee by 3 pm today.

Gonna get warm 30 40 50F Fri - Sat - Sun

Possible ANOTHER MAJOR STORM (like this one today) in 7-10 days 9 MARCH

Also storm 6-7 MAR but forecast shows it to be small measured in inches.

www.mammothweather.com
Mammoth Mt Reports 15 Inches Storm Total So Far…A Few More Inches Possible This Morning……A Fair Weekend With Mid Temps In The Offering……
Thursday March 1, 2012
Posted at 8:43 am by Howard
.A NNW orientated upper jet will keep the winds going most of the day today. Gusts in Town will continue in the 20 to 40MPH class. The upper trof is slowly translating eastward. One last Vt Max heading SE will keep the snow showers going for a while longer. CRFC has another .3 inches for the Yosemite area between 4:00am through this afternoon and so another 3+inches is certainly possible over the upper elevations today. So far 1.49 inches of water has accumulated in the snow melt bucket at the main lodge since the 27th with 15 inches of snow. .56 here at Http://www.MammothWeather.com at the 8200foot level. About 6 to 8 inches of snow has fallen.

Outlook:

Winds will begin diminishing later tonight but will remain gusty over the crest through Friday. Winds in town will calm down by tomorrow.

8000ft High temps are expected in the low 30s today then mid to upper 30s Friday….40s Saturday and 50s Sunday and Monday as the upper ridge slowly builds into California and over the far west by Sunday/Monday.

The next system will be a splitting system and with most of the action possibly to our north (see comment below). Expect cooler weather Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of snow.

Longer Range:

Models maybe underestimating the MJO effect upon the pattern for next week……MJO is in its prime position to work its magic……Further retrogression is possible with larger storms coming in further to the south.

Even the system for Tuesday/Wednesday 6-7 MAR may surprise us based upon the current forecast of a slight chance of snow……The MJO:

Has strengthened and moved into early Phase Space 3. Further retrogression is expected in the long wave pattern across the north pacific next week. Even though the AO index is positive….this maybe very significant for Snowfall and Water for California.



Stay Tuned…………….>>>>>



Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..

 

[donbrown]

Don't know about last few days buy RADAR show ELKO ... THE RUBIES gettin some ... UH HUH

 

[nicholasapp]

Great Storm, got about 40" total since sunday here in Truckee. Its gonna be a sweet blue bird perfect day tomorrow

 

[donbrown]

Mammoth area received 1-3 feet by snotel stations.

Tulare Sherman Pass 1-2 feet

Tioga PASS 30-40 inches

Sonora Pass 30-40 inches

Leavitt at 7100 feet 12-18 inches

Castle Creek @ 7562 48 inches

Squaw valley 48 inches

Ebbetts PAss 30 inches

Bear Valley 40 inches

The Rubies 24 inches

HArkness Flat near Susanville 24 inches

La Porte @ 5000 feet received 4 feet

Cisco 4 plus feet

Brewser Creek Mt Shasta ... 5 feet

Whisler BC 2-3 feet with a 6 ft base

 

[donbrown]

Bear Valley between Tahoe and Mammoth looks really nice

http://www.ourbv.com/index.cgi/Webcams

 

[shredder]

MJO? What's that?

 

[donbrown]

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the largest element of the intraseasonal (30–90 days) variability in the tropical atmosphere. It is a large-scale coupling between atmospheric circulation and tropical deep convection.

Madden-Julian Oscillation
(abbrev. MJO)- Tropical rainfall exhibits strong variability on time scales shorter than the seasonal El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These fluctuations in tropical rainfall often go through an entire cycle in 30-60 days, and are referred to as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or intraseasonal oscillations. The intraseasonal oscillations are a naturally occurring component of our coupled ocean-atmosphere system. They significantly affect the atmospheric circulation throughout the global Tropics and subtropics, and also strongly affect the wintertime jet stream and atmospheric circulation features over the North Pacific and western North America. As a result, they have an important impact on storminess and temperatures over the United States. During the summer these oscillations have a modulating effect on hurricane activity in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins.

http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html