Came across an interesting read 'bout how the weather around AUSTRALIA impacts our winter snowfall !
http://mammothweather.com/
ENSO: The Dweebs are going to give you all some important tools to track EL Nino This Summer. It appears that a good part of the equation that needs to be in place for an El Nino event later this year is colder water north of Australia. Remember, the western pacific has to follow through. It did not last year and so I hope it will this year. In order for a strong El Nino to take place during the Winter of 2015/16 the western pacific has to couple with colder water north of Australia . This means that although we can have all the ingredient’s working along the central and eastern equatorial pacific, if there is no follow through from the western pacific, then the warm Sea Surface temperature anomalies that are now developing over the NINO Basin will have occurred in vain as the anomalies will weaken as it did with last winters El Nino.
The Key:
A link to a blog with graphics from Michelle L’Heureux is linked below. It simply says that the waters around and over Northern Australia needs to be cooler than normal for a major El Nino to sustain itself during the following winter. It is all about the difference in surface air pressure between the city Darwin over Northern Australia and the Nino Basin. Cold water has higher pressure at the surface and warm water has lower pressure at the surface. (The NOI is the Index) A Surface Pressure Gradient moves from higher pressure to lower pressure. Or in this example of a warm ENSO event from West to East. So…..the waters over Northern Australia have to cool down for the higher surface pressure to develop there. Once the waters get really cool, the movement of air along the surface at the Equator will be both pushed and drawn eastward to “perpetuate and the sustain” the anomalous warm sea surface temps over the NINO Basin that is being created initially by the Oceanic Kelvin Wave. (“Bjerknes or positive feedback”) At the moment, we have a very warm strong KV rising to the surface over the eastern EQ pacific like last April 2014. So my fellow Dweebs, it is your job to keep an eye on the SSTA’s over Northern Australia to see if there will be a “coupling of the western pacific” to sustain El Nino for next Winter. (The NOI has to be equal to or greater than +1.5 to be considered a strong El Nino) (The NOI is reflective of an index that measures the difference of air pressure between Darwin and Tahiti)
SEE: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
1. http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what’s-hold-el-niño
2. Here is the SSTA loop: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim.html
Comment:
So far the coupling has not developed…however there are some signs that the waters are beginning to cool off the NE coast of AU.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..
http://mammothweather.com/
ENSO: The Dweebs are going to give you all some important tools to track EL Nino This Summer. It appears that a good part of the equation that needs to be in place for an El Nino event later this year is colder water north of Australia. Remember, the western pacific has to follow through. It did not last year and so I hope it will this year. In order for a strong El Nino to take place during the Winter of 2015/16 the western pacific has to couple with colder water north of Australia . This means that although we can have all the ingredient’s working along the central and eastern equatorial pacific, if there is no follow through from the western pacific, then the warm Sea Surface temperature anomalies that are now developing over the NINO Basin will have occurred in vain as the anomalies will weaken as it did with last winters El Nino.
The Key:
A link to a blog with graphics from Michelle L’Heureux is linked below. It simply says that the waters around and over Northern Australia needs to be cooler than normal for a major El Nino to sustain itself during the following winter. It is all about the difference in surface air pressure between the city Darwin over Northern Australia and the Nino Basin. Cold water has higher pressure at the surface and warm water has lower pressure at the surface. (The NOI is the Index) A Surface Pressure Gradient moves from higher pressure to lower pressure. Or in this example of a warm ENSO event from West to East. So…..the waters over Northern Australia have to cool down for the higher surface pressure to develop there. Once the waters get really cool, the movement of air along the surface at the Equator will be both pushed and drawn eastward to “perpetuate and the sustain” the anomalous warm sea surface temps over the NINO Basin that is being created initially by the Oceanic Kelvin Wave. (“Bjerknes or positive feedback”) At the moment, we have a very warm strong KV rising to the surface over the eastern EQ pacific like last April 2014. So my fellow Dweebs, it is your job to keep an eye on the SSTA’s over Northern Australia to see if there will be a “coupling of the western pacific” to sustain El Nino for next Winter. (The NOI has to be equal to or greater than +1.5 to be considered a strong El Nino) (The NOI is reflective of an index that measures the difference of air pressure between Darwin and Tahiti)
SEE: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
1. http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what’s-hold-el-niño
2. Here is the SSTA loop: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim.html
Comment:
So far the coupling has not developed…however there are some signs that the waters are beginning to cool off the NE coast of AU.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..
