SNOWFEST 2017 ! 1 January to 9 January

[donbrown]

5 inches to a foot each DAY for Truckee area 80% chance low range 3.5ft 50% high range 7ft @ 6000 feet

Rain afternoon Tuesday and rain Sunday afternoon January 8th

Low range by the 9th around 3 1/2 feet for Truckee to Huntington Lake

High range 7 feet by end of the 9th for Truckee to Huntington Lake

Similar forecast starting the 3rd to 4th to Huntington Lake 3 to7 feet

Starting around the 4th Wednesday Kings Canyon south to Kern County about half the snowfall 1.5 to 3.5 feet @ 7000 feet

Most daily snowfall Tuesday the 3rd thru Thursday the 5th. 12 in plus possible daily

 

[donbrown]

Six inches snow at 3000 feet in Kernville California this morning !

2 feet at 6000 feet Los Angeles San Bernandino Riverside Kern Tulare County !

http://www.lakeisabella.net/webcams/

 

[donbrown]

Pick your SPOT ... gonna snow a lot in the California Sierras next 10 days .... 1 to 10 January !

3 feet Minimum at 6000 feet up to possible 7 feet at 6000 feet

Quincy CA at 3500 feet expect minimum 3 feet snow this next 10 days Max expected 7 feet

Caltrans is gonna have a heck of a time clearing major highways ... not even talking about secondary roads.

SOCAL just recd up to 3 feet and the mountains are jammed up by inexperienced drivers ... Unfortunately many injured and several fatalities

 

[Seabass152]

Pick your SPOT ... gonna snow a lot in the California Sierras next 10 days .... 1 to 10 January !

3 feet Minimum at 6000 feet up to possible 7 feet at 6000 feet

Quincy CA at 3500 feet expect minimum 3 feet snow this next 10 days Max expected 7 feet

Caltrans is gonna have a heck of a time clearing major highways ... not even talking about secondary roads.

SOCAL just recd up to 3 feet and the mountains are jammed up by inexperienced drivers ... Unfortunately many injured and several fatalities

Where are you getting this info? Resorts in San Bernardino are reporting 3-8" this morning.

 

[donbrown]

Where are you getting this info? Resorts in San Bernardino are reporting 3-8" this morning.

Buckhorn Ski Lodge HWY 2

Alta Sierra up 155 near zip 93285

Kern airport recd 6 inches

 

[Seabass152]

Buckhorn Ski Lodge HWY 2

Alta Sierra up 155 near zip 93285

Kern airport recd 6 inches

It was in reference to "3ft in SoCal" comment. Didn't notice anywhere that was reporting that amount.

 

[donbrown]

Where are you getting this info? Resorts in San Bernardino are reporting 3-8" this morning.[/QUOTE]

6" of snow at 2650 feet elevation 1 January 2017

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For Southern California that's a lot of snow under 3000 feet ... and BELEIVE ME many down here cant drive in the rain much less snow.

http://abc7.com/traffic/5-fwy-re-opens-after-shutting-down-through-grapevine/1681129/

http://abc7.com/news/snow-storm-brings-fun---and-stuck-cars---to-mountain-areas/1672113/

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/01/01/happy-new-year-snow-snarls-traffic-north-los-angeles/

 

[donbrown]

It was in reference to "3ft in SoCal" comment. Didn't notice anywhere that was reporting that amount.

Mountains NW LAKE ISABELLA east of Porterville south of Ponderosa on a trail called Greenhorn

 

[donbrown]

100% chance 3 feet plus by end of Thursday 5 Jan Mammoth thru Truckee

Quincy at least a foot

 

[Seabass152]

100% chance 3 feet plus by end of Thursday 5 Jan Mammoth thru Truckee

Quincy at least a foot

Hopefully more, but we'll see how warm temps play into it.
http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe

 

[donbrown]

Hopefully more, but we'll see how warm temps play into it.
http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe

https://www.wunderground.com/us/ca/truckee/zmw:96160.1.99999

 

[kylant]

my riding grounds:
https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:95646.1.99999

BUT, I’ll believe it when I see it:face-icon-small-dis

 

[donbrown]

my riding grounds:
https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:95646.1.99999

BUT, I’ll believe it when I see it:face-icon-small-dis

Next 3-5 days statistically (100% likelihood) looks like you gonna get some ... 3 plus feet :face-icon-small-hap

 

[donbrown]

I think the big issue will be where the snow level begins.
Factors like wind / what side of mountain , temp of ground comes into play.

For instance here in SOCAL newyears between mountains snowed 6in down to 2500 feet but was at 4000 feet on the west side and snow flurries to 7000 feet on the east side of the sierras. Plus a storm 3 weeks ago dumped 1/2 foot of rain at 9500 feet in 8 hours

For TRUCKEE area best storming now thru (WED 2-3 feet snow) then a break THURS back to a snow - rain slush fest FRI-SUN then snow next week 9-10 JAN


Right now it is down to 2500 feet
wedthursfri between storms going to 6000
Friday then back to 2500
sat up to 6000-7000 feet
SUN-MON back to 2500 feet



Now thru WED Storm Truckee (2-3feet)area DOWN TO 2500 feet 1-2 feet at 2500 feet then
WED thurs fri (low chance of moisture between storms ) rain at 2500 feet to up to

7000 feet 1/2 inch rain
NEW STORM FRI-MON 6-10 JAN
6 jan Friday 6in to a foot at 6000 feet 3 inches snow at 2500 feet
7 Jan SAT rain at below 6000 feet snow 3-5 inch at 6000 feet
SUNDAY 8 JANUARY 1.25 rain below 7000 feet
Monday Tuesday 9-10 JAN SNOW 3-6 daily 6to a foot in 2 days at 2500 feet

BTW it will be in the highs of 30's and 40's in SOCAL at 3000 feet ALL week and highs are at most 61 at the beach declaring snow levels will be low up north,

Remember warm moisture from Hawaii and Cold from Alaska
Where this meets determines amount and elevation.

Previous years this "mixture" dumped into the ocean ... seems so far it is coming ashore !

Mammoth weather reporting:

Note:* This has the potential to be one of the historically significant precip events for Central CA in 10 years.

Considering all the fires the past 5 years, leaving burn scars in the forest.* Rock slides, mud flows, and road damage on the west side of the sierra are gonna happen

Most if not all reservoirs will be topped*out by the end of this storm cycle.* Some Dams may be forced to spill….


PS* I looked at both todays 12Z Monday GFS and ECMWF total 10 day QPF. added them together and averaged them out. They paint about 30 inches of water over a 10 day period (1 jan to 11 jan) at MAX over the Sierra.

 

[donbrown]

 

[zilla]

At first ( about 2 days ago ) local news Reno said we'd be down to 6 degrees maybe even zero for the over night lows mid week to end of week, yea don't need it that cold, now reports say more normal lows like 30's and mid 20's even up at South Lake. Looks like Thurs. or Fri. will have a little window of clearer vision before another storm front comes a knocking Sat./Sun. and it's supposed to be good !

 

[donbrown]

At first ( about 2 days ago ) local news Reno said we'd be down to 6 degrees maybe even zero for the over night lows mid week to end of week, yea don't need it that cold, now reports say more normal lows like 30's and mid 20's even up at South Lake. Looks like Thurs. or Fri. will have a little window of clearer vision before another storm front comes a knocking Sat./Sun. and it's supposed to be good !

I'm glad 20-30F is heavy snow and the 0 - 10 snow is powder that blows away

 

[kylant]

well, it has been snowing for at least the last 24 hours. hard to tell how much snow we have received because it is light blower powder and that is all it has been doing, blowing around :face-icon-small-dis
it has been super windy.

the forecasted AR event is going to be awful for lower elevation riding. :face-icon-small-fro There is some fantastic riding around me that starts at 6500 ft

 

[donbrown]

Looks like this storm pattern will last to 15 JANUARY

Forecasters say it will cycle up and down the Sierras from Kern County Sequoia Natl Forest to North of Susanville

Somewhere between there will be a large 100-200 mile path where the water equivalent amount is estimated at 25-30 inches of water !

So best case scenario 20 plus feet of snow above 8000 feet

Biggest series of storm seems to be this weekend between Mammoth and Susanville ... expect 1-2 inches of snow per hour for 48 hours

Immediate storm 3-5 jan may dump 2-4 feet from Sequoias to north of Truckee ! Center of storm seems to pass thru YOSEMITE

 

[Tahoepow]

I heard on the mt today... This type of event you don't leave the shovels outside, you bring them inside to dig yourself out of the house. This was in reference to the Mammoth area. Bring it! I've got lots of shovels.