SNOWED IN MAMMOTH / TAHOE

LoudHandle

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Old news, my wife was there, It has been a month ago now (snowed Sept 21st).

Got our first skiff of white at sea level in Valdez, Alaska last night (Oct. 22). The sun has it gone already but we are close to it staying.
 

donbrown

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Don,

Any predictions on snow fall yet?

You've provided great info in the past.

Thanks
Thank you for the compliment.

Seeing a storm hitting the entire Sierra Range Fri-Mon 3-6 Nov ... Good storming for 2 days ... At best 2 feet snow ... not sure of altitude . .. yet.
 

donbrown

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Snow levels across Sierrras above 7500 feet

70% chance 6 in to foot snow

60% chance 2 feet of snow

Truckee at 6000ft to get rain snow rain show for several days.

Placerville 80% chance of inch rain and 70% chance 2 inches.

Snow should be heavy with temps in the high 20's

End of storm gonna be single digit cold then afternoon mid 30's for a couple days
 
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donbrown

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Likelihood still increasing BUT first big storm for the season .... Not sure if computer models are accurate.

Right now 3 plus feet over 8000feet Whitney thru Truckee based on USA computer

1 foot based on European calculation.

Right now lots of storms for November .... Turkey day riding.
 
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Long range predictions

Don,

Are there any predictions of the amount for the current season? Will it be an average season or more? Here in Sacramento we had 3.5 in by now from last year. Now only .19 in. Hopefully it will be cold, last years early rain kept the creeks running.

Thanks
 

donbrown

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Don,

Are there any predictions of the amount for the current season? Will it be an average season or more? Here in Sacramento we had 3.5 in by now from last year. Now only .19 in. Hopefully it will be cold, last years early rain kept the creeks running.

Thanks
Last season was the best in around 100 years.

More than 10 days out hard to predict exact storm.

Generally speaking from NWS.gov NOAA .gov etc. will be average season which means 50 inches rain above 8000 feet Now to April first.

And yes its gonna get cold with teens at night at 6000 feet and high 30's in the day for at least a week ... into weekend of the 9th NOV.

Of course TRUCKKE gonna get lots of moisture next 10 days rainny days snowy nights ... as of right now more than any other part of the Sierras ! So Truckee when it starts not suppose to stop for a WEEK !!!!!!
 
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donbrown

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Don,

Are there any predictions of the amount for the current season? Will it be an average season or more? Here in Sacramento we had 3.5 in by now from last year. Now only .19 in. Hopefully it will be cold, last years early rain kept the creeks running.

Thanks
Prediction accuracy my opinion not quantified

less than 3 days 80%

more than 10 days last year worked and 2-4 years ago didn't work

generally 30 days ... been generally accurate ... for example whether more or less moisture.

Right now 30 days out to Dec1 2017 gonna be above average rain/snow as predicted by most forecasters I read ... about 4 organizations.

One general thumbrule I noticed is winter storms cycle in a 7-10 day period.

An evil indicator is a high pressure system in the Pacific Ocean from Los Angeles Oregon to Washington BC

High pressure rotates clockwise and pushes moisture away.

Low pressure turns counterclockwise and creates / draws moisture ... plus it pulls the "jet stream" south pulling cold air from the Bearing Sea/ Arctic.

On a weather map letter L cause good storms and the only good letter H in my opinion is one south of SOCAL driving moisture from Hawaii (pineapple express) and throwing H2O into the Jet stream.
 
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donbrown

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For California TAHOE BASIN WILL GET THE MOST THIS WEEKEND


It seems some gonna get good snow this weekend like WA Rockies to McCall area and some gonna get none or less ... from a storm coming from Canada

McCall expected to get most snow this weekend.


Our storm heading to California was expected to get 2-3 feet this weekend and revised downward this morning 6 inches to 18 inches Argh.

Maybe some trail riding this Sunday in California.

Gonna be a little warmer than expected. At 6000 feet 40F to low 20's at night.

Truckee gonna get small storms for a week.


NOAA 2 NOV 4AM PST

A strong cold front will push south across the region early Saturday morning and continue into Saturday night bringing a chance for possible heavy snow. Snow levels will begin around 7,500 feet on Saturday morning and drop to about 6,000 feet by early Sunday morning. This will bring winter like conditions to hikers in the backcountry and may impact travel through Yosemite, Kings Canyon and Sequoia National Parks along with other mountain area roads. It will be advisable to carry chains/cables in vehicles and check before you go for any road closures. Hikers and campers should be prepared for cold and snowy conditions. Some of the areas in the highest elevations could see 10 to 21 inches of snow with this storm.

For Mammoth north below

winter storm is set to impact the Sierra and western Nevada Friday through Saturday evening. Expect peak wind gusts of 40-50 mph with 100 mph gusts for the Sierra ridges, colder temperatures with valley highs in the upper 40’s, and 1-2 inches of precipitation in the mountains with lighter amounts of 0.25-0.50 inches for Mono and Lassen counties and areas east of the Sierra Crest. The area that will see the largest impact from this system will be for the Tahoe Basin. As for snow accumulation across the region, it all depends on how far down the snow levels fall. The current forecast has levels dropping into the 6500-7000 foot range, which makes it tricky, especially for the Tahoe Basin. As a result, two snowfall scenarios were generated and are shown here on the graphic. The image to the left indicates the “most likely total snowfall” versus the image to the right which indicates a “colder scenario” with more of an accumulation around the basin. Anything above the 7000-7500 foot range could see 1-2 feet of snow. It is important to note that since Incline Village has varying elevations, the point on both images is the forecasted snow amount near 7000 feet and any locations at lower elevations can see less amounts of snow. Make sure to finish all winter preparations before the weekend and plan accordingly if you are traveling over the Sierra passes during the storm. Keep up to date with the forecast as this storm opens up the door to a more active weather pattern for next week paying attention to the Tahoe area.
 
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DeathRowRacer

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Any current snow conditions? Heading out to visit family the 4th thorough the 7th, been in the area a few times but never rode. I'm bringing the sleds to hit Wyoming on the way, and on the way back. Any info on current and future snow conditions would be much appreciated!
 

R3bu

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Any current snow conditions? Heading out to visit family the 4th thorough the 7th, been in the area a few times but never rode. I'm bringing the sleds to hit Wyoming on the way, and on the way back. Any info on current and future snow conditions would be much appreciated!
Not much snow anywhere in California yet, Only semi ride-able areas above 8000ft, nothing below that. A storm is coming through this weekend, hope for the best.
 

donbrown

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Any current snow conditions? Heading out to visit family the 4th thorough the 7th, been in the area a few times but never rode. I'm bringing the sleds to hit Wyoming on the way, and on the way back. Any info on current and future snow conditions would be much appreciated!
What part of California?

Not much snow
 
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