G
Hey Hawk Heads,
I'm subscribed to a very accurate Snow predicting service called "Powder Alert" put on by Ski Washington. Yes I know it pertains to Skiing and snowboarding but I've found it is great predicting upcoming storms and the basic weather patterns for the Pacific Northwest. I encourage everybody to sign up and get the upcoming storm alters, you'll be impressed.........
Enjoy...Gman
Here's the link for Oct 31st:
http://www.skiwashington.com/conditions_cams/powder_watch
Here is the first link of the season explaining what we can expect for the year:
Powder Alert-
October 22nd 2008
Powder Alert – predicting perfect powder, dictating definitive dumage, forecasting fantastic fun – on the web since 1996
Winter Ski & Snow Forecast: 2008-2009
“La Nada” Winter Weather Pattern: Anything and Everything
Greetings Skiers and Snowboarders:
It’s time to start talking snow and powder turns.
Winter weather has started piling up snow in the Cascades earlier this week. Yes, the snow has begun to fall and pile up. Between 3000 and 7000ft, there is from a zero to six or more inches of snow on the slopes. We are not there yet, but it’s a start! Normally we need two or three modest or big storms to get the slopes open, so I am on the lookout for that sequence of storms to get us rolling. Usually 3 or 4 feet of snow is enough to get some of the slopes open and the lifts running, depending how it falls. Typically, at this point, there are just five or six weeks before the beginning of the season. Time to get in shape; make sure your gear is good to go. Have a look at some early fall sales – check out what is new.
Weather maps show an active and progressive pattern in the Gulf of Alaska, with each storm getting stronger and trying to head our way. Unfortunately for the next 7-10 days high pressure will block most precipitation into the Cascades. There is no indication this is a permanent pattern. The Cascade snow machine will be fully fueled and begin cranking by November and December.
As you may recall, last year we had a La Nina pattern. La Nina is the best long range predictor for winter Cascades snowfall. La Nina definitely delivered the goods, as promised.
Remember, however, powder weather patterns don’t usually “stick” for more than a few days to, at best, a couple of weeks. Even in the rather consistent La Nina snowfall pattern last winter, there were big breaks. You must be ready to move and drop everything, when the getting is good and the dumpage is sweet.
This year we have a neutral pattern – neither La Nina nor El Nino. Call it “La Nada”. It does not does not mean bland or nothing happening. It means there is more variability. This year’s neutral pattern is not as predictable as La Nina, as a long range forecast tool. But the short range forecasts are really driving the schedule of snowfall and that is what the powder alert is all about. I’ll have you dialed into the deep -- one to five days notice, BEFORE the pow hits. This neutral pattern really means there are equal chances anything could happen. As a result, this is the year you really want to be in touch with the powder alert. The weather may bounce all over the map at times. Overall, I see a good season coming, with a near normal start, at least partial opening at some resorts by Thanksgiving.
On forecasting powder snow…..
Many ask me how I am able to achieve such high accuracy ( > 95%) with the powder alerts. Two factors come into play. One is having the skill, knowledge and experience to understand and recognize the optimum weather pattern for great powder skiing. I’ve been forecasting for 30 years, so I am getting the hang of it. I know what a great powder pattern looks like on the computer weather maps and satellite imagery. Also, I often journey to the mountains to conduct powder snow quality control / quality assurance for the powder alert.
The future is uncertain….
“The second factor is more complex, difficult and hazardous. I want to have the confidence, ahead of time, to send out a powder alert, believing the powder pattern I am investigating on the computer models will actually occur as the computer says it will. This is the internal struggle I wage within my soul. I spend sleepless nights evaluating weather data, all so you can float those effortless turns. I don’t want to send an alert out which does not verify, wasting your efforts, therefore I avoid sending one out unless my confidence is very high. As a result, there can be great powder days without a powder alert – it only means I was not confident enough in the information I had at the time. The models may be inconsistent or vague, unclear if the pattern would evolve, as shown on the computer. Also something else may have happened – like I was away, picking a friend up at the airport. Or, just maybe, I am already up sampling the snow – I have to have a life too. But alas, once or twice I bust a forecast, demonstrating my humanity – for this I humbly apologize in advance.
Don’t forget to have friends sign up for the Powder Alert emails. It’s free, and that is a good price.
Looking into my crystal ball I see many powder days in your future – but you must be flexible and committed to ski the pow – ready to move quickly.
“Try not. Ski powder or do not, there is no try” Yoda Pubah of Powder
Let’s go skiing. I will update in November as more trends emerge.
Get psyched for the season ahead……
DON’T Forget This Friday, Saturday and Sunday at Quest Field Event Center.
Ski Fever and Snowboard Show Oct 24-26 – Biggest Show Ever
Free two for one lift tickets, save on gear, big sale and much more
Larry Schick
Meteorologist
Your Grand Pubah of Powder
www.skiwashington.com
I'm subscribed to a very accurate Snow predicting service called "Powder Alert" put on by Ski Washington. Yes I know it pertains to Skiing and snowboarding but I've found it is great predicting upcoming storms and the basic weather patterns for the Pacific Northwest. I encourage everybody to sign up and get the upcoming storm alters, you'll be impressed.........
Enjoy...Gman
Here's the link for Oct 31st:
http://www.skiwashington.com/conditions_cams/powder_watch
Here is the first link of the season explaining what we can expect for the year:
Powder Alert-
October 22nd 2008
Powder Alert – predicting perfect powder, dictating definitive dumage, forecasting fantastic fun – on the web since 1996
Winter Ski & Snow Forecast: 2008-2009
“La Nada” Winter Weather Pattern: Anything and Everything
Greetings Skiers and Snowboarders:
It’s time to start talking snow and powder turns.
Winter weather has started piling up snow in the Cascades earlier this week. Yes, the snow has begun to fall and pile up. Between 3000 and 7000ft, there is from a zero to six or more inches of snow on the slopes. We are not there yet, but it’s a start! Normally we need two or three modest or big storms to get the slopes open, so I am on the lookout for that sequence of storms to get us rolling. Usually 3 or 4 feet of snow is enough to get some of the slopes open and the lifts running, depending how it falls. Typically, at this point, there are just five or six weeks before the beginning of the season. Time to get in shape; make sure your gear is good to go. Have a look at some early fall sales – check out what is new.
Weather maps show an active and progressive pattern in the Gulf of Alaska, with each storm getting stronger and trying to head our way. Unfortunately for the next 7-10 days high pressure will block most precipitation into the Cascades. There is no indication this is a permanent pattern. The Cascade snow machine will be fully fueled and begin cranking by November and December.
As you may recall, last year we had a La Nina pattern. La Nina is the best long range predictor for winter Cascades snowfall. La Nina definitely delivered the goods, as promised.
Remember, however, powder weather patterns don’t usually “stick” for more than a few days to, at best, a couple of weeks. Even in the rather consistent La Nina snowfall pattern last winter, there were big breaks. You must be ready to move and drop everything, when the getting is good and the dumpage is sweet.
This year we have a neutral pattern – neither La Nina nor El Nino. Call it “La Nada”. It does not does not mean bland or nothing happening. It means there is more variability. This year’s neutral pattern is not as predictable as La Nina, as a long range forecast tool. But the short range forecasts are really driving the schedule of snowfall and that is what the powder alert is all about. I’ll have you dialed into the deep -- one to five days notice, BEFORE the pow hits. This neutral pattern really means there are equal chances anything could happen. As a result, this is the year you really want to be in touch with the powder alert. The weather may bounce all over the map at times. Overall, I see a good season coming, with a near normal start, at least partial opening at some resorts by Thanksgiving.
On forecasting powder snow…..
Many ask me how I am able to achieve such high accuracy ( > 95%) with the powder alerts. Two factors come into play. One is having the skill, knowledge and experience to understand and recognize the optimum weather pattern for great powder skiing. I’ve been forecasting for 30 years, so I am getting the hang of it. I know what a great powder pattern looks like on the computer weather maps and satellite imagery. Also, I often journey to the mountains to conduct powder snow quality control / quality assurance for the powder alert.
The future is uncertain….
“The second factor is more complex, difficult and hazardous. I want to have the confidence, ahead of time, to send out a powder alert, believing the powder pattern I am investigating on the computer models will actually occur as the computer says it will. This is the internal struggle I wage within my soul. I spend sleepless nights evaluating weather data, all so you can float those effortless turns. I don’t want to send an alert out which does not verify, wasting your efforts, therefore I avoid sending one out unless my confidence is very high. As a result, there can be great powder days without a powder alert – it only means I was not confident enough in the information I had at the time. The models may be inconsistent or vague, unclear if the pattern would evolve, as shown on the computer. Also something else may have happened – like I was away, picking a friend up at the airport. Or, just maybe, I am already up sampling the snow – I have to have a life too. But alas, once or twice I bust a forecast, demonstrating my humanity – for this I humbly apologize in advance.
Don’t forget to have friends sign up for the Powder Alert emails. It’s free, and that is a good price.
Looking into my crystal ball I see many powder days in your future – but you must be flexible and committed to ski the pow – ready to move quickly.
“Try not. Ski powder or do not, there is no try” Yoda Pubah of Powder
Let’s go skiing. I will update in November as more trends emerge.
Get psyched for the season ahead……
DON’T Forget This Friday, Saturday and Sunday at Quest Field Event Center.
Ski Fever and Snowboard Show Oct 24-26 – Biggest Show Ever
Free two for one lift tickets, save on gear, big sale and much more
Larry Schick
Meteorologist
Your Grand Pubah of Powder
www.skiwashington.com
