Massive storm last week of February???2016

[donbrown]

The National Weather Service "predicts" this present high pressure system will leave and issue in a massive rain / snow storm the last week of February 2016 into a few days in March 2016 !

I Hope so cause it was over 90F here in Los Angeles ! Looking at the cameras of the places I sled are melting fast !


Predictions are 50% likelihood to happen? Really ??? A 50% chance 10 days out ?

 

[bholmlate]

Lets hope so. Its 65 in Reno today. With these types of temps what little snow we have is melting fast. We are only 23% percent above normal for this time of year. if it doesn't snow in February like it has not in the past few years, we will be right back into that deep hole we have been for the past 7 years

 

[donbrown]

Lets hope so. Its 65 in Reno today with these types of temps what little snow we have is melting fast we are only 23% percent above normal for this time of year. if it doesn't in February like it has not in the past few years we will be right back into that deep hole we have been for the past 7 years

Agreed !:face-icon-small-sho

 

[zilla]

usually if I find and fix things on my sled it snows , so I'm putting in the effort : )

 

[kylant]

not gonna happen....

 

[donbrown]

not gonna happen....

Huh ??? What ?? Why is there any wavered loyalty a weather forecast 2 WEEKS out is gonna be accurate ??? uke::flypig::nerd::banplease::deadhorse::wacko::hurt::yell::ballchain::Cry::lie::crutch::target::fish::boink::boink::rip:ound::wink::crazy::laser::madgrin::brick:

 

[bholmlate]

that is some true optimism right there :face-icon-small-coo

 

[donbrown]

that is some true optimism right there :face-icon-small-coo

We have a pig with wings on the fireplace mantle ... It is made of cast iron.

 

[bholmlate]

Here's to it taking flight at the end of the month then :face-icon-small-coo

 

[donbrown]

Storm 17-19 FEB ..

Storm starting noonish NORCAL on WED and by sundown SOCAL

Might rain a 1/4 inch SOCAL 75% chance

Kern / Tulare county- up to 1/2 inch 90% chance

Mammoth ONE inch rain 98% chance ... looks like mostly rain at 8000 feet :face-icon-small-sho

BEAR VALLEY CA mostly all snow at 7000 feet at least 1 1/2 feet snow 95% chance

Truckee one inch rain ... 2-6 inches snow 98% chance

Estimates have been decreasing for SOCAL and increasing for NORCAL

Etna CA 2 plus inches rain 100% chance over 4 days 17-20th

Idaho panhandle and WA west coast getting 3 plus inches water.

 

[donbrown]

rain a .33 inch SOCAL 75% chance

Kern / Tulare county- up to 1 inch rain 90% chance

Mammoth 1.5 inch rain 98% chance ... looks like maybe foot snow at 8000 feet 2 plus at lodge

BEAR VALLEY CA mostly all snow at 7000 feet at least 1 1/2 feet snow 95% chance

Truckee one inch rain ... 8-18" inches snow 98% chance

Increasing for SOCAL to Truckee BUT decreasing for Shasta

Etna CA 1.5 (was over 2 in) inches rain 100% chance over 4 days 17-20th

Storm chance for Shasta area now 30% for last week of month.

European model still more accurate USA model says we are getting twice amount as stated above.

Australia takes all forecasts and does an estimate ... which for past weeks declare a HUGE storm cycle end of February ... and now first week MArch !

As of today 2014-2015 rain year had more rain than 2015-2016 season SO FAR for SOCAL.

 

[donbrown]

Storm will not "split" and go north south around the Sierras so ... ESTIMATES are INCREASING for the SIERRAS.

At least a foot at 7000 feet over the entire Sierras from Kern County into Oregon State.

accum 4-10 inches 6000-7000 feet.

From NOAA

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING ALL SNOW TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 8 AM WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD
BRIEFLY REACH 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 12 TO 20 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH 4 TO
10 INCHES BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET...INCLUDING LAKE TAHOE.
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 89.

2 TO 6 INCHES EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 IN MONO COUNTY.

* SNOW LEVELS: STARTING BETWEEN 6500 TO 7500 FEET THEN RAPIDLY
FALLING TO ALL VALLEY FLOORS OVERNIGHT. APPROXIMATE RAIN TO SNOW
CHANGEOVER TIMES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
* DONNER PASS AND ECHO SUMMIT: 4 TO 6 PM TODAY.
* LAKE TAHOE LEVEL: 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
* HIGHWAY 395/203 INTERCHANGE IN MONO COUNTY: 1 TO 3 AM
THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH ROADS QUICKLY
BECOMING SNOW COVERED. SLOW TRAVEL AND CHAIN CONTROLS ARE
LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND HEAVY SNOW MAY CREATE
PERIODS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

All the estimates SOUTH of SHASTA have increased ! Etna , around Shasta, went from 2 inches to an inch of water.

Yuba City to Los Angeles gonna get more than estimated the day before and even hours before this posting.

Hope estimates keep climbing and ACCURATE !!!!

 

[zilla]

not gonna happen....

Hey it worked !
Nah, I knew it would.

 

[donbrown]

Hey it worked !
Nah, I knew it would.

Yep no storms predicted for California next 10 days putting us into March.

 

[kylant]

Hey it worked !
Nah, I knew it would.

lol.

it was far from a “massive” storm
it was a quick decent/good size storm. 24-30” at my main riding area.

a “massive” storm for the tahoe area, IMO, is 5+ feet in 2-3 days. haven’t seen a storm like that since Dec 2012

 

[donbrown]

lol.

it was far from a “massive” storm
it was a quick decent/good size storm. 24-30” at my main riding area.

a “massive” storm for the tahoe area, IMO, is 5+ feet in 2-3 days. haven’t seen a storm like that since Dec 2012

They ... did not discuss the storm in depth (a the expected super storm end of February) we just had cause it popped up and intensified in just a few days.

 

[donbrown]

I posted this last night 24 Feb but has changed.

Mammoth 25% chance snow flurries WED 2 March

Truckee 50% chance snow flurries WED 2 March

Rest of the state ... OKAY EUREKA getting some good rain.


Today 25 FEB forecast is 10% chance Mammoth

Truckee is 30% chance FOR SNOW FLURRIES