Wet storm now getting colder. AS OF 8:00AM THIS MORNING 2.00 OF WATER AND 15 INCHES OF WET SNOW HAD FALLEN AT THE MAIN LODGE. RATIOS OF 8:1 PRETTY COMMON. AT THE VILLAGE .90 AND 8 INCHES OF WET SNOW AT 8:1
Four plus feet at 9000 by Thursday With break on Tuesday morning.
At least a foot or two at 7500 feet by Thursday 5 March.
Levels for snow to 6500 feet and lower.
Another major storm (measured in feet) this weekend.
Then very cold week of 8 March with (snow) another major storm by 15 March.
Monday, March 02, 2009 9:17:58 AM
"SNOW NOT RAIN FELL IN MAMMOTH LAST NIGHT.....EXPECT MORE WET SNOW TODAY BEFORE COOLER AIR WORKS IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.....WEATHER TO BE STORMY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN JUST UNSETTLED THROUGH WEEKS END....4 TO 5 FEET OF SNOWFALL (STORM TOTAL) STILL LOOKS REASONABLE OVER MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN BY THURSDAY AM"
AS OF 8:00AM THIS MORNING 2.00 OF WATER AND 15 INCHES OF WET SNOW HAD FALLEN AT THE MAIN LODGE. RATIOS OF 8:1 PRETTY COMMON. AT THE VILLAGE .90 AND 8 INCHES OF WET SNOW AT 8:1.
LATEST RAMSIS H2O LOOP SHOWING RICH SUBTROPICAL TAP CONTINUING. AMSU PWS IN THE 1.00 TO 1.25 RANGE ONSHORE NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL VALLEY. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND IS NEAR HIGHWAY 50 AND WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH MONO COUNTY BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE BACK PORTION OF THIS BAND SO EXPECT THE TEMPO OF SNOWFALL TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FOOT IS VERY POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE UPPER ELEVATIONS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO ABOUT 6500 FEET OVER SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY BY LATE TODAY. COLD UNSTABLE AIR WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING INTO TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER WAVE OR SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH AGAIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND INTO THE SIERRA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL HERE IN THE MAMMOTH AREA. THE NEW OPERATIONAL 12Z WRF/GFS WAS SHOWING A STRONG VORT CENTER IN THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO MONO COUNTY. THE ODDS FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW LEVEL DROP TO THE MONO COUNTY VALLEY FLOOR.
EXTENDED:
THE EUROPEAN (ECMWF) HAS SHOWN CONSISTENCY IN BACKING UP OR "RETROGRADING" THE LOWER PORTION OF THIS STORM OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.....THEN KICKING IT INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THIS IS CORRECT....EXPECT SHOWERY...UNSETTLED WX TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONGER RANGE:
LAST NIGHTS 00Z GFS DAY PLUS 8 MEANS AND, THE NEW OPERATIONAL MONDAY 12Z GFS ARE NOW IN THROUGH 384 HOURS. THEY ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN COMING THE END OF THE WEEK. IT IS ACCOMPLISHED BY AN ADJUSTMENT IN THE POSITION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE TO 140WEST BY NEXT MONDAY. THIS BRINGS A RETURN OF THE COLD SHOWERY PATTERN OF LAST DECEMBER WITH INSIDE SLIDERS AND ARCTIC AIR OVER THE FAR WEST BY MONDAY. COLD DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE RESULT. THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST AN TEMPORARY ADJUSTMENT...AS:
1. THERE WILL STILL BE AN EXCESSIVE WAVE LENGTH ACROSS THE CONUS AND OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
2. THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS 3 WAVE AND SUBJECT TO RETROGRESSION LATER NEXT WEEK.
WE ARE NOT DONE YET!!!
Four plus feet at 9000 by Thursday With break on Tuesday morning.
At least a foot or two at 7500 feet by Thursday 5 March.
Levels for snow to 6500 feet and lower.
Another major storm (measured in feet) this weekend.
Then very cold week of 8 March with (snow) another major storm by 15 March.
Monday, March 02, 2009 9:17:58 AM
"SNOW NOT RAIN FELL IN MAMMOTH LAST NIGHT.....EXPECT MORE WET SNOW TODAY BEFORE COOLER AIR WORKS IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.....WEATHER TO BE STORMY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN JUST UNSETTLED THROUGH WEEKS END....4 TO 5 FEET OF SNOWFALL (STORM TOTAL) STILL LOOKS REASONABLE OVER MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN BY THURSDAY AM"
AS OF 8:00AM THIS MORNING 2.00 OF WATER AND 15 INCHES OF WET SNOW HAD FALLEN AT THE MAIN LODGE. RATIOS OF 8:1 PRETTY COMMON. AT THE VILLAGE .90 AND 8 INCHES OF WET SNOW AT 8:1.
LATEST RAMSIS H2O LOOP SHOWING RICH SUBTROPICAL TAP CONTINUING. AMSU PWS IN THE 1.00 TO 1.25 RANGE ONSHORE NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL VALLEY. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND IS NEAR HIGHWAY 50 AND WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH MONO COUNTY BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE BACK PORTION OF THIS BAND SO EXPECT THE TEMPO OF SNOWFALL TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FOOT IS VERY POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE UPPER ELEVATIONS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO ABOUT 6500 FEET OVER SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY BY LATE TODAY. COLD UNSTABLE AIR WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING INTO TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER WAVE OR SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH AGAIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND INTO THE SIERRA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL HERE IN THE MAMMOTH AREA. THE NEW OPERATIONAL 12Z WRF/GFS WAS SHOWING A STRONG VORT CENTER IN THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO MONO COUNTY. THE ODDS FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW LEVEL DROP TO THE MONO COUNTY VALLEY FLOOR.
EXTENDED:
THE EUROPEAN (ECMWF) HAS SHOWN CONSISTENCY IN BACKING UP OR "RETROGRADING" THE LOWER PORTION OF THIS STORM OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.....THEN KICKING IT INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THIS IS CORRECT....EXPECT SHOWERY...UNSETTLED WX TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONGER RANGE:
LAST NIGHTS 00Z GFS DAY PLUS 8 MEANS AND, THE NEW OPERATIONAL MONDAY 12Z GFS ARE NOW IN THROUGH 384 HOURS. THEY ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN COMING THE END OF THE WEEK. IT IS ACCOMPLISHED BY AN ADJUSTMENT IN THE POSITION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE TO 140WEST BY NEXT MONDAY. THIS BRINGS A RETURN OF THE COLD SHOWERY PATTERN OF LAST DECEMBER WITH INSIDE SLIDERS AND ARCTIC AIR OVER THE FAR WEST BY MONDAY. COLD DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE RESULT. THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST AN TEMPORARY ADJUSTMENT...AS:
1. THERE WILL STILL BE AN EXCESSIVE WAVE LENGTH ACROSS THE CONUS AND OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
2. THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS 3 WAVE AND SUBJECT TO RETROGRESSION LATER NEXT WEEK.
WE ARE NOT DONE YET!!!
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