CURRENT 4-1-15 West/Central Montana Avy conditions: NO RATING

Scott · Dec 8, 2014

Here we go.....

The current report is always at the bottom of this thread.

(No, I'm not Dudley, I just cut and paste the emails.)

I'll leave the old reports up so you can study the history and trends in snow conditions.

Scott · Dec 8, 2014

...

Good morning, this Dudley Improta with a snow conditions update for December, 6, 2014. We will begin regular avalanche advisories on Friday, December 12.
Warm mountain temperatures have helped stabilize the snowpack in our area. Weather and SNOTEL stations this morning are showing temperatures just above freezing at elevations up to 6000 feet and temperatures in the high 20’s up to 8000 feet. The Stuart Mountain SNOTEL shows that the Rattlesnake snowpack has settled 3 inches in the last 48 hours. These are good signs for stability.<O
We were able to clean the rime off the wind speed and wind direction devices on Point Six yesterday. The station indicates southwest winds changed to east and southeast winds last night. The winds have been blowing 8 to 17 mph.<O</O
Steve could get the facets that formed in November to fail yesterday in snow pits; but the failures were not showing much energy. All this is good compared to what we were hearing 10 days ago.<O</O
There is always some avalanche problem to consider. For now I would still not trust the facets on the bottom of the snowpack. I would be particularly wary of areas with relatively shallow snow and areas with rocky outcrops or cliffs. Rock formations typically hold these facets for a long time. The other possible problems might be loose wet snow sluffs or small wind slabs.

<O</OWeather Forecast and Avalanche Outlook<O</O
A fast-moving system is predicted to pass through the region tonight. This disturbance could produce higher winds and up to 6 inches of snow at elevations above 7000 feet. This storm could increase the chances of wind slabs on leeward slopes at the higher elevations.
<O</O
Early Season Tune-up<O</O
The snow has arrived and the early season “keeners” have already been logging vertical. Take some time to go through your avalanche gear and make sure you’re ready for recreating in the mountains.
1. Check your transceiver(s) and put in fresh batteries; check for corrosion. Run through a few practice drills with your transceivers.<O</O2. Pull out your probes and shovels and put them together. Consider putting a little lubrication on the joints and parts that fit together. Check your shovel blades and shafts for cracks or weaknesses.<O</O
3. Go through your “possibles” ; your first aid and repair kits. Clean them out, reorganize the contents, make sure you have what you think you may need. Check your fire starting kit; perhaps put in fresh materials.<O</O
4. Meet with your backcountry partners and practice several rescue scenarios, including multiple burials, deep burials, probing, and shoveling.<O</O
5. Look into avalanche training if you haven’t already taken a course. If you’re going to ride or ski slopes over 30 degrees you can never be 100% sure the slope won’t fail. You need to hedge your bets.<O</O
6. Maybe take that 3-year-old power bar out of your pack and put a new one in.<O</O

West Central Montana Avalanche Center
406-329-3752 cell 406-370-3371
info@missoulaavalanche.org<O</O

Scott · Dec 15, 2014

Last Friday's report:

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View Full Advisory »<o></o>
There is MODERATE avalanche danger in the west central Montana backcountry above 7000 feet, on slopes steeper than 35degrees. Slab avalanches are possible on steep slopes (>35 deg.) that have a relatively shallow snowpack and have rocky outcrops or cliffs. Any rain on the snow will increase the chances of a slab avalanche and/or the chance of small surface slides. The avalanche danger is LOW in other terrain in the advisory area.<o></o>
Good Morning, this is Dudley Improta with the west central Montana avalanche advisory for December 12, 2014. This danger rating does not apply to operating ski areas and expires at midnight tonight (Dec. 12).<o></o>
Weather and Snowpack<o></o>
This morning mountain winds are blowing out of the south and east at 7 to 16 mph and gusting into the 30 mph range . Mountain temperatures are above freezing up to 8000 feet.<o></o>
Warm temperatures have strengthened the snowpack. Snotels across the advisory area indicate the snow has settled anywhere from 3 to 6 inches over the last 3 days; a sign of stability.<o></o>
But, we are still seeing facets at the bottom of the snowpack created in the November cold spell. At higher elevations (>7000 feet) on steep slopes (>35 degrees), particularly where there is rocky terrain, it’s possible this layer could produce a large slab avalanche.<o></o>
The top layer of wet snow could release on steep slopes as well. These wet sluffs would be small and not nearly as consequential as a slab from the ground level.<o></o>
Any rain on the snow will increase the chance of either one of these events.<o></o>
Weather Forecast and Avalanche Outlook<o></o>
There is a chance of rain in the mountains today, and again the temperatures up to 8000 feet may reach into the 40’s (F). Temperatures are predicted to drop tonight and snow levels may lower. The higher elevations may pick up 1 to 3 inches of snow. Winds may gust out of the south and west up to 30 mph. Although the snow predicted is modest, it may be deposited on a melt-freeze crust and accumulate on lee slopes. I would expect the avalanche danger to rise ever so slightly.<o></o>
The snow predicted reminds me of Calvin, from Calvin and Hobbes, who said “an inch of snow is like winning 10 cents in the lottery”. At this point, however, we’ll take what we can get.<o></o>
Public observations can be important to the avalanche advisory and to riders and skiers. If you would like send in snow observations use our public observations form or e-mail us at info@missoulaavalanche.org .<o></o>
It’s early season out there, so be aware of the hazards associated with a low snowpack; i.e rocks, trees, downfall, etc. Ski and ride safe; have a great weekend.<o></o>
Steve will issue the next advisory on Tuesday, December 16.<o></o>
moderate<o></o>
The post Avalanche Advisory for December 12, 2014 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.<o></o>

<o></o>
This information is the sole responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas. The avalanche danger rating expires at midnight tonight but you can use the information we provide to help you make more informed decisions regarding travel in avalanche terrain for the next few days.

Our advisory area includes the Bitterroot Mountains from Lost Trail Pass North to Hoodoo Pass, the Rattlesnake Mountains and the Southern Swan and Mission Mountains near Seeley Lake. Avalanche information for the Lookout Pass/St. Regis Basin is available from the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center.<o></o>

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Scott · Dec 16, 2014

Today:

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View Full Advisory »<o></o>
The avalanche danger is MODERATE in the west central Montana backcountry. Weak snow can still be found near the base of the snowpack in many locations above 7000 feet. Moderate temperatures this past week have strengthened this layer but it can’t be completely trusted. The moderate rating applies to terrain steeper than 35 degrees above 7000 feet. We’re finding the weakest snow structure in shallow snow in rocky terrain. The avalanche danger is LOW at other locations.<o></o>
Hello! This is Steve Karkanen with the backcountry avalanche advisory for December 16, 2014 from the West Central Montana Avalanche Center. This information does not apply to operating ski areas and the danger rating expires at midnight tonight.<o></o>
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Weather and Snowpack<o></o>

This morning mountain temperatures are in the teens with no precipitation the past 24 hours.<o></o>
Weather conditions of the past few days have helped strengthen overall snowpack stability. We’re still finding and getting reports of the early November facets failing in stability tests with propagation at this layer. This is most apparent in rocky areas where the snow is less than 4 feet deep. Wherever these facets exist, I would be suspicious of the steepest terrain and places where the snow is deep enough to cover anchors. It’s worth doing a little digging to see if the slope you want to ski or ride on has this condition.<o></o>
Providing that we don’t drop back into an arctic deep freeze and it keeps snowing, we can expect this (deep persistent weakness) to no longer be an issue for us after a few more days. Our attention now turns to what is happening at the surface. The moderate weather improves stability but clear dry conditions weaken the snow surface. Surface hoar was noted yesterday at several locations above 7000′ as well as small grain facets forming due to the temperature differences at the snow/air interface. This will most likely be the next problem to be aware of the next time it snows heavily.<o></o>
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Weather and Avalanche Forecast<o></o>

The Missoula Office of the National Weather Service is forecasting a weak ridge to move through the area this week with only minimal precipitation amounts. A more robust system is expected to arrive by early next week. Stay tuned.<o></o>
Expect continued strengthening of the snowpack with the higher and more shaded terrain holding weak snow longer than sun exposed terrain.<o></o>
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We’ve received several great reports so far this winter. If you get out and see something worth passing along, you can use our public observations form or e-mail us at info@missoulaavalanche.org . The information you share may save a life!<o></o>
I will issue the next advisory on Friday, December 19.<o></o>
moderate<o></o>
The post Avalanche Advisory for December 16, 2014 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.<o></o>

<o></o>
This information is the sole responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas. The avalanche danger rating expires at midnight tonight but you can use the information we provide to help you make more informed decisions regarding travel in avalanche terrain for the next few days.

Our advisory area includes the Bitterroot Mountains from Lost Trail Pass North to Hoodoo Pass, the Rattlesnake Mountains and the Southern Swan and Mission Mountains near Seeley Lake. Avalanche information for the Lookout Pass/St. Regis Basin is available from the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center.<o></o>

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Scott · Dec 19, 2014

Today....

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View Full Advisory »<o></o>
Mostly stable conditions exist with MODERATE avalanche danger in isolated areas above 7000 feet where the snow is shallow and on rocky terrain steeper than 35 degrees. The avalanche danger is LOW on other high elevation terrain. The lower elevation terrain is fairly locked up now thanks to the moderate temperatures and melt-freeze cycles of the past few days.<o></o>
Good morning backcountry sliders and riders! This is Steve Karkanen with today’s avalanche advisory from the West Central Montana Avalanche Center. This information is the responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas. The danger rating expires at midnight tonight.<o></o>
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Weather and Snowpack<o></o>

This morning SNOTEL stations are reporting temperatures in the twenties and low thirties. Wind speeds this morning are SSE 3 gusting to 11 at Point Six and SSE 16 gusting to 20 mph at Deer Mountain at east of Darby. Hoodoo picked up 4 inches new snow and North Fork Jocko 7 inches in the past 24 hours.<o></o>
Our moderate weather has given us more confidence that the overall condition of the weak basal layers has vastly improved over the past 2 weeks. Although its unlikely, shaded, shallow snow on steep rocky terrain above 7000 feet are the places where it is possible to trigger a slide to the ground on this persistent weakness.<o></o>
In the Lost Trail Pass backcountry, Ed Snook, Dave Fox, Geoff Fast and Dudley found this layer to be reactive only after a lot of force is applied to an isolated column and no propagation in extended column tests (see profile below).<o></o>
They did report finding the surface hoar that formed earlier in the week but there wasn’t enough new snow to make it reactive or to form a slab.<o></o>
David Williams, Justin Singer and I visited Hoodoo Pass Thursday and did not find the surface hoar. I expect the sun destroyed it in many places Wednesday. What we found at Hoodoo was a nearly isothermic snowpack with a surface condition hard enough to walk around on. The depth hoar that formed in early December is mostly gone in fact the bottom 16 inches is solid (1 finger to pencil hard) and wet. Similar conditions exist around Lolo Pass.<o></o>
Earlier reports from the Rattlesnake and southern Swan also show continued strengthening of the overall snowpack.<o></o>
It is easy to move around now but remember, it is early and there are a lot of other hazards like rocks, logs and stumps poking out just waiting to tear your sled up or rip the edges off your skis or board.<o></o>
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Weather and Avalanche Forecast<o></o>

The Missoula Office of the National Weather Service is forecasting heavy wet snow to begin Saturday with Bitterroot mountain passes expected to receive between 4 and 12 inches before the event transitions from snowfall to heavy rain by Sunday. The snow level is expected to rise to about 6000 feet before precipitation decreases and a more northwesterly flow with cooler air allows snow levels to drop back to pass elevations.<o></o>
The first time either melt water or rain is introduced to snow, it causes it to become unstable. A lot of weight is added quickly and the water percolates down to a weak layer or harder bed surface.<o></o>
Expect the avalanche danger to slowly increase with any new snow and wind but as soon as it starts raining, the avalanche danger will rapidly increase to CONSIDERABLE possibly HIGH. Keep informed of weather developments and get off and out from under anything steep enough to slide.<o></o>
Dudley issues the next advisory on Tuesday, December 23.<o></o>
Enjoy the snow and be safe this weekend.<o></o>
moderate<o></o>
The post Avalanche Advisory for December 19, 2014 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.<o></o>

<o></o>
This information is the sole responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas. The avalanche danger rating expires at midnight tonight but you can use the information we provide to help you make more informed decisions regarding travel in avalanche terrain for the next few days.

Our advisory area includes the Bitterroot Mountains from Lost Trail Pass North to Hoodoo Pass, the Rattlesnake Mountains and the Southern Swan and Mission Mountains near Seeley Lake. Avalanche information for the Lookout Pass/St. Regis Basin is available from the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center.<o></o>

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Scott · Dec 22, 2014

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An avalanche warning for HIGH avalanche danger continues for the mountains above 6000 feet in west central Montana.<o></o>
Good morning, this is Steve Karkanen with an update to the warning issued by the West Central Montana Avalanche yesterday. The warning expires at midnight tonight.<o></o>
The heavy snowfalls and high winds that blasted western Montana this weekend have mostly abated. Most SNOTEL locations picked up anywhere from a half inch of SWE at Hoodoo to 2.5 inches at Twin Lakes.<o></o>
We received several reports of triggered avalanche activity in the Bitterroot range near Lost Horse and Hoodoo Pass and we remotely triggered several wind and storm snow slabs in the Rattlesnake yesterday.<o></o>
The avalanche danger is HIGH on terrain steeper than 35 degrees.<o></o>
We plan to get again today and Dudley will issue the regular advisory tomorrow morning.<o></o>
high<o></o>
The post Avalanche Warning for December 22, 2014 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.<o></o>

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This information is the sole responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas. The avalanche danger rating expires at midnight tonight but you can use the information we provide to help you make more informed decisions regarding travel in avalanche terrain for the next few days.

Our advisory area includes the Bitterroot Mountains from Lost Trail Pass North to Hoodoo Pass, the Rattlesnake Mountains and the Southern Swan and Mission Mountains near Seeley Lake. Avalanche information for the Lookout Pass/St. Regis Basin is available from the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center.<o></o>

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Scott · Dec 23, 2014

TODAY!!!

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On slopes above 6000 feet that are steeper than 30 degrees, the avalanche danger is considerable in the west central Montana backcountry. We have rescinded the avalanche warning issued Sunday afternoon; but snow and high winds have loaded steep slopes and human-triggered avalanches are still likely.<o></o>
Good Morning, this is Dudley Improta with the west central Montana avalanche advisory for December 23, 2014. This danger rating does not apply to operating ski areas and expires at midnight tonight (Dec. 23).<o></o>
Weather and Snowpack<o></o>
Relatively nice weather is on tap for today. Mountain temperature are ranging from 14 – 25 degrees F. West and southwest winds are blowing 11-14 mph and gusting into the 20 mph range. This will be short lived, as another storm is expected tonight.<o></o>
Snow accompanied by high winds created dangerous avalanche conditions the past two days. Steve and I triggered remote avalanches Sunday and we received good observations from the public, reporting natural and triggered avalanches.<o></o>
Yesterday we took a tour in the Rattlesnakes and our observations indicated the snow had settled out somewhat; but there were plenty of signs a slide could be triggered. We observed many natural releases that propagated up to 100 yards; and our snow pit tests showed the slab strengthening but retaining energy.<o></o>
The Snowbowl Patrol was able to trigger a lot of activity with explosives. Cross-loaded southwest couloirs produced slab avalanches; with the most leeward areas seeing crowns up to 2 feet. Again, in the most leeward areas, they experienced extensive whoomphing, settlement and cracking.<o></o>
I would expect the snow to be even more sensitive in the central and southern (Lost Trail Pass backcountry) Bitterroots because of the increased snow load in these areas over the past couple of days.<o></o>
All this tells me, that although we may be past the crux of this cycle, instabilities in the snowpack can be triggered. I would tiptoe around for another day or two. That being said, more storms are on the way, and tiptoeing may be standard operating procedure for a while.<o></o>
Weather Forecast and Avalanche Outlook<o></o>
Brief high pressure will build into the area today. Another storm is expected to move through on Wednesday and Thursday. This storm may produce 6 to 8 inches of snow. Winds, mainly out of the west and southwest, will be less than what we have experienced; but still strong enough to move the new snow. I would expect the avalanche danger on steep terrain to remain elevated for the immediate future.<o></o>
Steve will issue the next advisory on Boxing Day, 2014 (Friday). Ski and ride safe, have a great holiday.<o></o>
Public observations can be important to the avalanche advisory and to riders and skiers. If you would like to send us snow observations use our public observations form or e-mail us at info@missoulaavalanche.org .<o></o>
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The post Avalanche Advisory for December 23, 2014 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.<o></o>

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This information is the sole responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas. The avalanche danger rating expires at midnight tonight but you can use the information we provide to help you make more informed decisions regarding travel in avalanche terrain for the next few days.

Our advisory area includes the Bitterroot Mountains from Lost Trail Pass North to Hoodoo Pass, the Rattlesnake Mountains and the Southern Swan and Mission Mountains near Seeley Lake. Avalanche information for the Lookout Pass/St. Regis Basin is available from the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center.<o></o>

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Scott · Jan 2, 2015

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Posted: Jan 02, 2015 07:01 am<?xml:namespace prefix = "o" ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on wind loaded terrain steeper than 35 degrees. High winds earlier this week formed sensitive wind slabs on multiple aspects above 6000 feet. Natural avalanches are possible, human triggered avalanches are likely. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding and conservative decision making are essential under these conditions.<o

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Hello! This is Steve Karkanen with the backcountry avalanche advisory for Friday, January 2, 2015. The danger rating expires at midnight and does not apply to operating ski areas.<o

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Weather and Snowpack<o></o>

Mountain temperatures this morning are in the teens and twenties with a northwest wind gusting to 27 mph at 8000 feet. Skies are cloudy and snow is expected later today.<o

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Earlier this week, high winds hammered mountain peaks and ridges with 50 mph winds. North and east aspects were hit hard as the wind scoured these slopes and loaded others. On our Rattlesnake tour we saw a large recent avalanche on a south aspect rocky slope that was heavily cross loaded during the wind. The recent blast of wind and cold temperatures, recent avalanches and fracture propagation during stability testing are the factors keeping the danger rating elevated.<o

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Any steep wind loaded area, including cross loaded terrain lower on a slope, is potentially dangerous right now.<o

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The cold and clear weather has also created another weak layer on or just under the surface that will demand our attention during the next storm. There are also pockets where the wind stripped the snow down to the ground. These thin areas are prone to faceting and already have a weak structure (see profile below).<o

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Conditions were less than ideal for travel and downright heinous for skiing yesterday. Overall stability has improved but the wind sculpted interesting patterns and left a few landmines on top and cross loaded slopes. We also remain concerned about the deeply weak layer we’ve been talking about for nearly a month now. It takes a lot of force but it snaps with energy when it fails. This is the layer that failed in the recent avalanche near Seeley Lake.<o

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As it so clearly demonstrated last weekend, it can’t be trusted.<o

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Weather Forecast and Avalanche Outlook<o></o>

The Missoula Weather Service Office is forecasting more active weather with slightly warmer temperatures and a few inches of snow. By Saturday night, a series of wet systems will push into the area with up to a foot of mountain snow possible. 20-30 mph winds are possible as the front passes.<o

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We have a weak snow surface and a deep persistent weak layer that gets touchy every time it snows. The avalanche danger will increase with heavy new snow and high wind.<o

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Dudley will issue the next advisory on Tuesday, January 6.<o

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The post Avalanche Advisory for January 2, 2015 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.<o

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This information is the sole responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas. The avalanche danger rating expires at midnight tonight but you can use the information we provide to help you make more informed decisions regarding travel in avalanche terrain for the next few days.

Our advisory area includes the Bitterroot Mountains from Lost Trail Pass North to Hoodoo Pass, the Rattlesnake Mountains and the Southern Swan and Mission Mountains near Seeley Lake. Avalanche information for the Lookout Pass/St. Regis Basin is available from the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center.<o

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Scott · Jan 5, 2015

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An avalanche warning is in effect for the west central Montana backcountry above 5000 feet. The avalanche danger is now HIGH on terrain steeper than 30 degrees. Natural avalanches are likely, human triggered avalanche are very likely. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.<o

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Good morning backcountry skiers and riders, this is Steve Karkanen with an avalanche warning for Monday, January 5, 2015. This avalanche warning will expire at 0600 on January 6. The warning will be extended or terminated at that time.<o

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This information is the responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas.<o

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Weather and Snowpack<o></o>

Heavy new snow and high wind has increased the avalanche danger.<o

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This morning, area SNOTEL stations have received around 1.5 to 2.0 inches of snow water or about a foot of new snow. Temperatures are in the high twenties the wind is from the west gusting to 44 mph on Point Six.<o

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This storm is warm with increasing snowfall intensity rates expected throughout the day. This storm snow is much heavier than previous snow and is forming dangerous slabs especially on lee terrain.<o

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These are very dangerous avalanche conditions, travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.<o

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Avalanche specialists will be in the field Monday and Dudley will issue the regular avalanche advisory Tuesday morning.<o

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The post Avalanche Warning for January 5, 2015 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.<o

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This information is the sole responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas. The avalanche danger rating expires at midnight tonight but you can use the information we provide to help you make more informed decisions regarding travel in avalanche terrain for the next few days.

Our advisory area includes the Bitterroot Mountains from Lost Trail Pass North to Hoodoo Pass, the Rattlesnake Mountains and the Southern Swan and Mission Mountains near Seeley Lake. Avalanche information for the Lookout Pass/St. Regis Basin is available from the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center.<o

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Wheel House Motorsports · Jan 5, 2015

lots of deep fluffy snow, now some crazy wet stuff in SW MT.

Be careful folks. its nasty out right now.

Scott · Jan 6, 2015

Normally we see about an inch of moisture in every foot of snow.

Jocko got 4.6" of moisture in 28" of snow.

Lolo got 3" of moisture in 10" of snow!!!!

Scott · Jan 6, 2015

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We are continuing the avalanche warning issued yesterday. On slopes steeper than 30 degrees the avalanche danger in the west central Montana backcountry is high. Heavy snow and strong winds from Sunday and Monday have loaded steep backcountry terrain. Travel in avalanche terrain or in avalanche run-out zones is not recommended. The area is under a winter storm warning until 11 am this morning.<o

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This danger rating expires at midnight tonight (January 6) and does not apply to operating ski areas.<o

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Good morning, this Dudley Improta with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s avalanche advisory for January 6, 2015.<o

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Weather & Snowpack Discussion<o

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This morning west and southwest mountain winds are blowing at 10-11 mph and gusting to 30 mph. Temperatures above 6000 feet are just below or above freezing, 27-35 degrees F.<o

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The robust winter storm that moved through the area Sunday and Monday should begin to abate by mid-morning. Yesterday we issued an avalanche warning due to heavy snows and strong winds. Rain up to 5000 feet increased the instability of the storm snow at lower elevations; while elevations above 6000 feet accumulated warmer, heavy snows on top of the existing colder snow; and things started moving.<o

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Slides on highways and roads were noted in the region. Snotels are showing 14 to 16 inches of snow with 2 to 3 inches of snow water in the last 48 hours. This is a heavy load to put on the snowpack and it will take some time to adjust.<o

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The Snowbowl Patrol triggered 1 to 1.5 foot slabs on southwest aspects with explosives yesterday. With 50-100 yards of visibility, Travis and I traveled in the Rattlesnakes near the Snowbowl Ski Area. We triggered smallish, remote storm slabs on north aspects; but we were sticking to very safe terrain. I suspect there are larger slabs ready to go on big, steep open bowls.<o

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I have added Steve’s pit from 1/1/15 in the photos below to remind you of the weak structure we observed on north and northeast slopes. The new, heavy snow is sitting on this weak structure in areas that north and northeast winds hammered at the end of December.<o

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The good news is the warmer temperatures will probably help settle things out in a day or two.<o

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Avalanche & Weather Outlook<o

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High pressure will build into the northern Rockies this evening and into Wednesday. Temperatures may warm for elevations above 4000 feet. Moderate snowfall is predicted along the Divide on Thursday. The warm temperatures should help the snow stabilize quickly.<o

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North Fork of Placid Creek Avalanche Incident<o

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On December 27, 2014 four snowmobilers were caught in an avalanche near Seeley lake. There were two complete burials, but no injuries. We have posted the incident report on our documents page.<o

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Avalanche Hazard and Weather Forecasting for Backcountry Recreationists<o

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We are presenting a free lecture designed to improve your avalanche hazard and weather forecasting skills. Luke Zukiewicz, Snow Hydrologist with the Natural Resource Conservation Service (Montana Snow Survey Program Manager) and Lee Ann Allegretto, Meteorologist and Avalanche Program Manager with the National Weather Service in Missoula are the featured speakers.<o

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They will be discussing how to interpret and use weather and snowpack data available on the web.<o

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Wednesday, January 21 – 6-8pm at the Trailhead 221 East Front Street Missoula, MT<o

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Ride and ski safe. I will issue the next regularly scheduled advisory Friday, December 9.<o

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The post Avalanche Warning for January 6, 2015 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.<o

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This information is the sole responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas. The avalanche danger rating expires at midnight tonight but you can use the information we provide to help you make more informed decisions regarding travel in avalanche terrain for the next few days.

Our advisory area includes the Bitterroot Mountains from Lost Trail Pass North to Hoodoo Pass, the Rattlesnake Mountains and the Southern Swan and Mission Mountains near Seeley Lake. Avalanche information for the Lookout Pass/St. Regis Basin is available from the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center.<o

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Scott · Jan 9, 2015

</TD></TR> <TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 1; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd; BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-TOP: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top>

<TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="WIDTH: 6.25in; mso-cellspacing: 0in; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 0in" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=600 border=0> <TBODY> <TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: #f0f0f0; BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0; BACKGROUND: white; BORDER-BOTTOM: #f0f0f0; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-TOP: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in" vAlign=top> <TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="WIDTH: 100%; mso-cellspacing: 0in; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; mso-padding-alt: 15.0pt 15.0pt 15.0pt 15.0pt" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: #f0f0f0; BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #f0f0f0; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15pt; PADDING-TOP: 15pt; PADDING-LEFT: 15pt; BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0; PADDING-RIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top> Avalanche Advisory for January 9, 2015<o></o>

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The avalanche danger in the west central Montana backcounty is moderate. Human triggered avalanches are possible on slopes steeper than 30 degrees above 5000 feet. The storm snow from Sunday and Monday has settled, but snow stability tests around the region are showing lingering weaknesses.<o

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Good morning! This is Dudley Improta with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s advisory for January 9, 2015. This danger rating does not apply to operating ski areas, expires at midnight tonight (Jan.9) and is the responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service.<o

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Weather and Snowpack Discussion<o

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This morning southeast and east mountain winds are blowing at 5 mph and gusting to 15 mph. Temperatures above 6000 feet are ranging from 11 to 18 degrees F. There was a trace of snow overnight; today should be generally sunny.<o

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Just because I’m calling moderate avalanche danger this morning there is no reason to think you can’t trigger an avalanche on a 30 degree plus slope. Snotels in the area have shown significant settlement and, earlier in the week, we had warmer temperatures at elevations above 5000 feet. These are good signs of stability; but snow stability tests continue to show weakness in the snow.<o

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Tim and Steve covered some ground yesterday near Lolo Pass. They rode into the Brushy Fork and then, north of Highway 12, to the top of Crystal Theatre. Their snow tests (profile below) showed the early season facets from December still failing. Five Valleys Backcountry Ski Patrol had similar results in this area on Wednesday. Besides the old facets failing, the Patrol also got the recent storm snow to fail (see Public obs).<o

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The recent storm snow failed in tests at Hoodoo Pass on Wednesday and in the Rattlesnakes yesterday (profiles below). Observers at Hoodoo Pass had the storm snow fail easily in CT’s and propagate with high strength in ECT’s. In the Rattlesnakes, between 7900 and 7800 ft., Travis and I had ECT propagation of 12 and 21 on slopes with northerly aspects.<o

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Observers near the Lost Trail area were seeing the least reactive snowpack with generally stable results in their tests (profile below). Snotels near LT show nearly 8 to 9 inches of settlement since Monday.<o

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So, we are only seeing some recent activity from a few days ago, related to the storm that ended Monday. Snotels are showing significant snow settlement. There is no whumphing or cracking. Temperatures warmed up, then cooled, and there has been no load since Monday. But, stability tests from different areas are all showing consistent weaknesses in the snowpack. If you choose to recreate on a steep slope, dig a quick pit and check it out; and as always, never expose more than one skier, sledder or snowboarder to avalanche hazard at any one time.<o

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Looks like a little sun today with a weak high pressure in place. 4 to 8 inches of snow is forecast above 5000 feet on Saturday and Sunday. Note the surface temperature gradients in the snow profiles; this new snow will be deposited on faceted snow. I would expect the avalanche danger to stay the same for now.<o

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Steve will issue the next regularly scheduled advisory Tuesday, January 13.<o

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We appreciate public observations.<o

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Ride and ski safe; have a great weekend.<o

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The post Avalanche Advisory for January 9, 2015 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.<o

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This information is the sole responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas. The avalanche danger rating expires at midnight tonight but you can use the information we provide to help you make more informed decisions regarding travel in avalanche terrain for the next few days.

Our advisory area includes the Bitterroot Mountains from Lost Trail Pass North to Hoodoo Pass, the Rattlesnake Mountains and the Southern Swan and Mission Mountains near Seeley Lake. Avalanche information for the Lookout Pass/St. Regis Basin is available from the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center.<o

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Scott · Jan 13, 2015

</TD></TR> <TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 1; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd; BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-TOP: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top>

<TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="WIDTH: 6.25in; mso-cellspacing: 0in; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 0in" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=600 border=0> <TBODY> <TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: #f0f0f0; BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0; BACKGROUND: white; BORDER-BOTTOM: #f0f0f0; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-TOP: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in" vAlign=top> <TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="WIDTH: 100%; mso-cellspacing: 0in; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; mso-padding-alt: 15.0pt 15.0pt 15.0pt 15.0pt" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: #f0f0f0; BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #f0f0f0; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15pt; PADDING-TOP: 15pt; PADDING-LEFT: 15pt; BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0; PADDING-RIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top> Avalanche Advisory for January 13, 2015<o></o>

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Above 6000 feet, the avalanche danger is MODERATE on wind loaded terrain steeper than 35 degrees. Natural avalanches are unlikely, human triggered avalanches are possible. It is still possible to trigger an avalanche on steep leeward terrain or in shallow snow in rocky terrain.<o

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On terrain less steep than 35 degrees and below 6000 feet, the avalanche danger is LOW. Natural and human triggered avalanches are unlikely. Conditions are generally safe but be aware that unstable snow exists in isolated areas such as pockets of snow less than 4 feet deep that are in rocky areas that have been wind loaded from the top or sides.<o

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Good morning backcountry skiers and riders! This is Steve Karkanen with the January 13, 2015 backcountry avalanche advisory issued by the West Central Montana Avalanche Center. This information is the responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas.<o

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Mountain temperatures are in the twenties this morning with 20 mph winds from the west. Skies are cloudy and we have not received any precipitation the past 24 hours.<o

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Moderate temperatures the past few days have increased the overall stability of our mountain snowpack. The deeper weaknesses we’ve been talking about have gained a lot of strength but still demand attention. It’s enough to keep the adjective rating at the moderate level. What we’ve seen the past 2-3 days is giving us more confidence that we’ve transitioned out of the more dangerous conditions of the past several weeks and are now watching how the surface layers will react with new snow.<o

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The post Avalanche Advisory for January 13, 2015 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.<o

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This information is the sole responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas. The avalanche danger rating expires at midnight tonight but you can use the information we provide to help you make more informed decisions regarding travel in avalanche terrain for the next few days.

Our advisory area includes the Bitterroot Mountains from Lost Trail Pass North to Hoodoo Pass, the Rattlesnake Mountains and the Southern Swan and Mission Mountains near Seeley Lake. Avalanche information for the Lookout Pass/St. Regis Basin is available from the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center.<o

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Scott · Jan 20, 2015

</TD></TR> <TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 1; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd; BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-TOP: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top>

<TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="WIDTH: 6.25in; mso-cellspacing: 0in; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 0in" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=600 border=0> <TBODY> <TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: #f0f0f0; BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0; BACKGROUND: white; BORDER-BOTTOM: #f0f0f0; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-TOP: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in" vAlign=top> <TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="WIDTH: 100%; mso-cellspacing: 0in; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; mso-padding-alt: 15.0pt 15.0pt 15.0pt 15.0pt" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: #f0f0f0; BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #f0f0f0; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15pt; PADDING-TOP: 15pt; PADDING-LEFT: 15pt; BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0; PADDING-RIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top> Avalanche Advisory for January 16, 2015<o></o>

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In the west central Montana backcountry above 6000 feet, the avalanche danger is MODERATE on wind loaded terrain steeper than 35 degrees. Natural avalanches are unlikely, human triggered avalanches are possible. Expect the avalanche danger to rapidly increase as new snow and high winds move into the area.<o

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At all other mountain locations the avalanche danger is LOW. Natural and human triggered avalanches are unlikely. It is still possible to find unstable snow in isolated areas so remember that low avalanche danger does NOT mean no avalanche danger.<o

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Hello! This is Steve Karkanen with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s backcountry avalanche advisory for January 16, 2015. This information is the responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas. The danger rating expires at midnight tonight.<o

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Mountain temperatures are in the upper 20’s with south winds at Point Six in the 20’s gusting to 27. At Deer Point near Darby winds are from the south at 20 mph with gusts to 33 . No precipitation has been recorded in the past few days.<o

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Our observers report mostly stable conditions with the primary concern focusing on how the current surface condition will affect stability. In some locations we’re finding evidence of weak layers failing with moderate strength. In isolated areas, we’re still getting slabs to propagate in extended column testing (see this week’s video).<o

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While the overall snowpack appears to have settled and strengthened, there are still areas where it may be possible to trigger a deeper slab with serious consequences. The only way to determine if the slope you want to recreate on has this instability is to dig into it.<o

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During the clear weather this week, the surface of our snowpack weakened and will be the next main problem to be aware of. New snow and high winds will rapidly increase the avalanche danger.<o

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I’ll issue the next regular advisory next Tuesday, January 20th.<o

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The post Avalanche Advisory for January 16, 2015 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.<o

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This information is the sole responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas. The avalanche danger rating expires at midnight tonight but you can use the information we provide to help you make more informed decisions regarding travel in avalanche terrain for the next few days.

Our advisory area includes the Bitterroot Mountains from Lost Trail Pass North to Hoodoo Pass, the Rattlesnake Mountains and the Southern Swan and Mission Mountains near Seeley Lake. Avalanche information for the Lookout Pass/St. Regis Basin is available from the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center.<o

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Scott · Jan 20, 2015

</TD></TR> <TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 1; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd; BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-TOP: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top>

<TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="WIDTH: 6.25in; mso-cellspacing: 0in; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 0in" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=600 border=0> <TBODY> <TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: #f0f0f0; BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0; BACKGROUND: white; BORDER-BOTTOM: #f0f0f0; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-TOP: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in" vAlign=top> <TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="WIDTH: 100%; mso-cellspacing: 0in; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; mso-padding-alt: 15.0pt 15.0pt 15.0pt 15.0pt" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: #f0f0f0; BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #f0f0f0; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15pt; PADDING-TOP: 15pt; PADDING-LEFT: 15pt; BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0; PADDING-RIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top> Avalanche Advisory for January 20, 2015<o></o>

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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on any terrain above 6000 feet steeper than 30 degrees in the Bitterroot range from Lost Trail to Hoodoo Pass.<o

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In the more northern Rattlesnake and southern Swan and Mission Mountains near Seeley Lake, high winds and new snow has also increased the avalanche danger to CONSIDERABLE on any wind loaded slope steeper than 30 degrees at elevations above 6000 feet.<o

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Considerable means dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Natural avalanches are possible, human triggered avalanches likely. Use good terrain and travel management skills and be conservative in your decision making.<o

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Below 6000 feet, and on other slopes not affected by the wind and heavy new snow, the avalanche danger is MODERATE. Natural avalanches are unlikely but human triggered avalanches are possible.<o

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Hello backcountry skiers and riders, this is Steve Karkanen with the Tuesday January 20th avalanche advisory from the West Central Montana Avalanche Center. The above danger rating expires at midnight tonight and does not apply to operating ski areas.<o

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Winds in excess of 60mph pounded western Montana the past 48 hours. The wind on Point Six was recorded at 70mph from the west on Sunday. The Bitterroot mountains picked up several inches of precipitation in this storm with rain falling at pass levels Sunday. This rain did turn back to snow and all mountain locations received snow through the day Monday. This morning, winds are more tolerable and mountain temperatures are in the 20’s. SNOTEL sites report an additional 2-5 inches new snow overnight.<o

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We had observers in several locations throughout the area yesterday and received a couple of valuable public observations. Observers in the southern Bitterroot near Lost Trail report a weak snow structure involving the buried surface hoar that formed last week. This weak layer is very sensitive on steep terrain and wind loaded areas will be especially touchy for a few days.<o

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The more northern locations in the Rattlesnake and southern Swan ranges are not as touchy as the Bitterroot appears to be right now but in both cases, it’s a tricky situation. Everything we see on our tours tell us that we are in a mostly stable condition until we start digging and doing stability tests. We still find snappy clean failures nearly 3 feet deep in some areas (Rattlesnake and near Lolo Pass). You can’t tell if these weak layers are present on a slope by just looking at it or traveling across it. You have to dig.<o

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On Wednesday evening we are sponsoring a free backcountry weather workshop at the Trail Head, 221 East Front from 6-8pm. Learn how to use SNOTEL information and hear about new National Weather Service forecasting products.<o

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Dudley will issue the next advisory on Friday January 23.<o

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The post Avalanche Advisory for January 20, 2015 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.<o

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This information is the sole responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas. The avalanche danger rating expires at midnight tonight but you can use the information we provide to help you make more informed decisions regarding travel in avalanche terrain for the next few days.

Our advisory area includes the Bitterroot Mountains from Lost Trail Pass North to Hoodoo Pass, the Rattlesnake Mountains and the Southern Swan and Mission Mountains near Seeley Lake. Avalanche information for the Lookout Pass/St. Regis Basin is available from the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center.<o

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Scott · Jan 23, 2015

</TD></TR> <TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 1; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd; BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-TOP: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top>

<TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="WIDTH: 6.25in; mso-cellspacing: 0in; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 0in" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=600 border=0> <TBODY> <TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: #f0f0f0; BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0; BACKGROUND: white; BORDER-BOTTOM: #f0f0f0; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-TOP: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in" vAlign=top> <TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="WIDTH: 100%; mso-cellspacing: 0in; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; mso-padding-alt: 15.0pt 15.0pt 15.0pt 15.0pt" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: #f0f0f0; BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #f0f0f0; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15pt; PADDING-TOP: 15pt; PADDING-LEFT: 15pt; BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0; PADDING-RIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top> Avalanche Advisory for January 23, 2015<o></o>

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In the southern Bitterroot Mountains, on slopes steeper than 35 degrees and above 7000 feet, the avalanche danger is rated as considerable. Last weekend’s storm was deposited on a weak surface hoar layer in this area and is still touchy in stability testing. In all other parts of the advisory area, on slopes steeper than 35 degrees and above 6000 feet, the avalanche danger is rated as moderate .<o

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Good morning, this is Dudley Improta with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s advisory for January 23, 2015. The danger ratings do not apply to operating ski areas, are the sole responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service and expire at midnight tonight (1/23/15).<o

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Weather and Snowpack Discussion<o

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Mountain winds, primarily out of the west, are blowing 16 to 19 mph this morning. Temperatures above 5000 feet are 21 to 28 degrees F across the advisory area. We picked up about an inch of snow last night; expect warming temperatures today with mostly cloudy skies. Some snow with increasing wind is forecast to begin this evening.<o

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There’s been no significant snow since the MLK weekend. We can thank the faceting process for keeping the skiing and riding pretty good. Surface temperature gradients and an inch or so of graupel have kept us in “recycled powder” for the last couple of days.<o

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The snow from last weekend was deposited on a surface hoar layer and it is still reacting to stability tests; notably in the Lost Trail and southern Bitterroot area (LT pit below). The Montana / Idaho border did pick up the most snow during that storm. Elsewhere in the advisory area the snow appears to be stabilizing. I dug a lot of pits in the Rattlesnakes yesterday with Steve and we were generally happy with what we saw. We did get an interesting result twice in a pit on an E by NE slope (see video below).<o

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The size of the surface slab, our primary avalanche problem, is going to vary depending on where you are riding; i.e. 20″ in the southern Bitterroot, 8-10 inches near Lolo Pass, 8 – 10″ in the Rattlesnakes, 12 – 14″ in the southern Swans. I’m always going to tell you it’s a good idea to dig a quick pit if recreating on slopes 35 degrees and steeper; it’s a particularly good idea this year when observations and pit tests have been anything but definitive.<o

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Weather and Avalanche Outlook<o

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Light snow, producing a couple of inches and accompanied by west winds gusting up to 30mph, is expected tonight through Saturday. The big story is you might be recreating in spring snow. By Sunday temperatures are expected to rise above freezing; possibly up to 8000 feet. Without significant rain or snow, I would expect these warm temperatures to stabilize the snowpack; and the avalanche danger should decrease.<o

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Ride and ski safe, have a great weekend. I’ll issue the next regularly scheduled advisory on Tuesday, January 27.<o

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The post Avalanche Advisory for January 23, 2015 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.<o

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This information is the sole responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas. The avalanche danger rating expires at midnight tonight but you can use the information we provide to help you make more informed decisions regarding travel in avalanche terrain for the next few days.

Our advisory area includes the Bitterroot Mountains from Lost Trail Pass North to Hoodoo Pass, the Rattlesnake Mountains and the Southern Swan and Mission Mountains near Seeley Lake. Avalanche information for the Lookout Pass/St. Regis Basin is available from the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center.<o

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Scott · Jan 27, 2015

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<TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="WIDTH: 6.25in; mso-cellspacing: 0in; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 0in" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=600 border=0> <TBODY> <TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: #f0f0f0; BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0; BACKGROUND: white; BORDER-BOTTOM: #f0f0f0; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-TOP: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in" vAlign=top> <TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="WIDTH: 100%; mso-cellspacing: 0in; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; mso-padding-alt: 15.0pt 15.0pt 15.0pt 15.0pt" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"> <TD style="BORDER-TOP: #f0f0f0; BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0; BORDER-BOTTOM: #f0f0f0; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15pt; PADDING-TOP: 15pt; PADDING-LEFT: 15pt; BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0; PADDING-RIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top> Avalanche Advisory for January 27, 2015<o></o>

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The avalanche danger in the west central Montana backcountry is rated at moderate. Above 6000 feet, human triggered avalanches are possible on slopes 35 degrees and steeper. Although warm temperatures have helped settle the snowpack; stability tests show the possibility of slab avalanches and wet, loose avalanche activity will increase in the afternoon with rising temperatures. Your use of caution should rise along with those temperatures in the afternoon.<o

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Good morning, this is Dudley Improta with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s advisory for January 27, 2015. This danger rating does not pertain to operating ski areas, is the sole responsibility of the U. S. Forest Service and expires at midnight tonight (1/27/15).<o

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Weather and Snowpack Discussion<o

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Mountain winds are out of the west at 18 to 24 mph this morning. Temperatures above 6ooo feet are generally in the upper 30’s to low 40’s F. Expect another warm, mostly sunny day with the high elevation temperatures reaching near 50 F again.<o

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I really wanted to call low danger, I really did. My pit scores from yesterday and observations through the weekend would just not let it happen. Earlier this year Steve said we have a tricky snowpack; I put it another way Friday – things have been less than definitive. I don’t know who said this; maybe I did – “odd weather equals odd avalanche conditions”.<o

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We had high elevation rain this weekend from Lost Trail Pass to Lolo Pass and from Hoodoo Pass to the southern Swans. It wasn’t a ton of rain and it didn’t seem to penetrate the snow very deep. Rain and melt-freeze crusts have formed on all aspects. Besides the obvious loose, wet snow movement in the heat of the day; we’re still seeing evidence of possible slab releases. Yesterday in the Rattlesnakes we had stability tests propagate on sunny ESE and shaded N slopes (see pictures and more numbers below).<o

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Skiers in the southern Swans were not getting the propagation in their tests this weekend but were seeing weak layers about 14 inches from the surface. Observations from Elk Meadows noted collapsing before and after the rain but no avalanche activity or energetic snowpit scores (see public obs).<o

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The weather is awesome for travelling and lots of folks are getting out. Snotel sites are showing 6 to 8 inches of settlement across the advisory area since Friday. But, we’re getting some interesting stability test scores and a couple of red flags like whumphing and collapsing noises.<o

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If you’re choosing to recreate on slopes 35 degrees and steeper; take time to dig into the snowpack 2 or 3 feet to check for an instability. And, of course, only expose one person at a time to any avalanche hazard.<o

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Weather and Avalanche Outlook<o

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High pressure will continue through today. Temperatures in the high terrain will continue to be above normal. A slight disturbance could produce some precipitation this evening into Wednesday, but no significant snow is forecast for west central Montana. I would expect the avalanche danger to remain the same for the next few days.<o

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A free 2-night avalanche awareness program begins this evening at 6pm in the North Underground Lecture Hall on the UM campus.<o

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I will issue the next regularly scheduled advisory on Friday, January 30.<o

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Ride and ski safe.<o

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The post Avalanche Advisory for January 27, 2015 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.<o

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This information is the sole responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas. The avalanche danger rating expires at midnight tonight but you can use the information we provide to help you make more informed decisions regarding travel in avalanche terrain for the next few days.

Our advisory area includes the Bitterroot Mountains from Lost Trail Pass North to Hoodoo Pass, the Rattlesnake Mountains and the Southern Swan and Mission Mountains near Seeley Lake. Avalanche information for the Lookout Pass/St. Regis Basin is available from the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center.<o

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Scott · Jan 30, 2015

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The avalanche danger is rated at Moderate in southern Bitterroots; elsewhere in the west central Montana backcountry the avalanche danger is rated at low. A low danger rating does not indicate no avalanche danger. Isolated pockets of instability may exist. You should always use some caution when recreating on slopes 35 degrees and steeper.<o

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Good morning, this is Dudley Improta with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s advisory for January 30, 2015. This danger rating does not apply to operating ski areas, is the sole responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service and expires at midnight tonight (1/30).<o

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Snowpack and Weather Discussion<o

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Expect another sunny day in the mountains with temperatures warming to above freezing. This morning temperatures above 6000 feet are in the 20’s F and northwest winds are blowing 12 to 16 mph. It’s colder in the southern Missions with temperatures in the mid-teens.<o

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Snow pits and stability testing continue to show weaknesses on cold, shaded northerly aspects in the southern Bitterroots (see pit profile below). Way back when it did snow, around the MLK weekend, the southern Bitterroots received about 20 inches of snow. That snow fell on a surface hoar layer and has been reacting in tests since then.<o

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You can still find the surface hoar layer in other parts of the advisory area; and get it to fail in stability tests (i.e. check the pit photo and profile below from the Rattlesnakes yesterday). As in the southern Bitterroots, the failures and the buried surface hoar layer are associated with cold, shady slopes and north aspects.<o

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Even with low danger there is always some avalanche problem to consider. I would consider this persistent slab that is 40 inches deep in the southern Bitterroots and 10 to 12 inches deep in the Rattlesnakes. Increased caution is warranted on steep (>35 degrees) slopes with north aspects.<o

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Low danger is like a green traffic light. When I do get a green light, I take a second to see if anyone is running a red light into the intersection before I take off. In other words, keep in mind unstable snow may exist on steep slopes in isolated areas.<o

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Avalanche and Weather Outlook<o

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More of the same until Saturday. A transition to a more active weather pattern is anticipated at the beginning of the week. I expect avalanche conditions to remain the same until we get a significant change in the current weather. Surface hoar and faceted snow have formed across the advisory area; we’ll see how how this affects things when we get the new snow we’re all hoping for.<o

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Classes and Fundraiser<o

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Join missoulaavalanche (the 501 3 C that supports the West Central Montana Avalanche Center) at the Kettlehouse Northside for “pintnite” on Wednesday, February 4, 5-8pm. Have a brew, support the Center.<o

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Level 1 classes in February, sponsored by missoulaavalanche with the help of UM Campus Recreation, have openings. Check our education page for details.<o

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Steve will issue the next regularly scheduled advisory on Tuesday, February 3. Ride and ski safe, pray for snow and have a great weekend.<o

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The post Avalanche Advisory for January 30, 2015 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.<o

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This information is the sole responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas. The avalanche danger rating expires at midnight tonight but you can use the information we provide to help you make more informed decisions regarding travel in avalanche terrain for the next few days.

Our advisory area includes the Bitterroot Mountains from Lost Trail Pass North to Hoodoo Pass, the Rattlesnake Mountains and the Southern Swan and Mission Mountains near Seeley Lake. Avalanche information for the Lookout Pass/St. Regis Basin is available from the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center.<o

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Scott · Feb 3, 2015

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At all locations above 6000 feet in the west central Montana backcountry, the avalanche danger is MODERATE on terrain steeper than 35 degrees. Heightened avalanche conditions exist on recently wind loaded steep terrain and in areas where weak sugary snow is found under the hard crust that formed last week.<O

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The avalanche danger is LOW elsewhere in the advisory area. LOW avalanche danger never means NO avalanche danger particularly this year with several persistent weak layers in this winter’s snowpack.<O

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Good morning, this is Steve Karkanen with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s backcountry avalanche advisory for February 3, 2015. This danger rating does not apply to operating ski areas, is the sole responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service and expires at midnight tonight (2/3).<O

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Snowpack and Weather<O></O>

This morning mountain temperatures are in the low thirties with SW winds gusting into the twenties. SNOTEL stations report 2 to 4 inches of new snow overnight. This new snow is getting blown around so the primary avalanche problem today is wind slab development on the steeper terrain.<O

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The warm weather and rain (too warm for January) left a hard surface that the new wind slabs can’t quickly adhere to and these will be sensitive for a few days. The good news is they are not very big but if it keeps snowing and blowing, they will be.<O

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Most of the (deeper) weaknesses we’ve been monitoring have healed with time but there is enough of a temperature gradient in the upper 30cm (12 inches) to allow the faceting process to weaken the snow under the thick crust that formed last week. This is the most sensitive feature in the snowpack right now and will become reactive under a heavy load.<O

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Weather and Avalanche Forecast<O></O>

Missoula Weather expects a weather disturbance to move through the area which may bring 3 to 6 inches of snow to the higher elevations. An arctic front will cross the Continental Divide this evening swinging winds to the northeast and dropping temperatures.<O

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A significant change is in store for Thursday when an abnormally mild and wet weather pattern setting up for the weekend. Snow levels may rise to 7000 feet with winds in the 50mph range and heavy snowfall at the higher elevations.<O

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Expect the avalanche danger to increase as the next storm moves into the area.<O

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Upcoming events<O></O>

Drop by the Northside Kettlehouse Wednesday evening from 5 to 8 pm for the annual Missoulaavalanche Community Unite Pint Night. This fundraising event helps us provide avalanche safety information and education in western Montana.<O

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There are open spaces for the upcoming Level 1 Avalanche classes in the Bitterroot. For registration information check the following links:<O

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February 19-22<O

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February 26-3/1<O

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The post Avalanche Advisory for February 3, 2015 appeared first on Missoula Avalanche.<O

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This information is the sole responsibility of the Forest Service and does not apply to operating ski areas. The avalanche danger rating expires at midnight tonight but you can use the information we provide to help you make more informed decisions regarding travel in avalanche terrain for the next few days.

Our advisory area includes the Bitterroot Mountains from Lost Trail Pass North to Hoodoo Pass, the Rattlesnake Mountains and the Southern Swan and Mission Mountains near Seeley Lake. Avalanche information for the Lookout Pass/St. Regis Basin is available from the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center.<O

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CURRENT 4-1-15 West/Central Montana Avy conditions: NO RATING

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