First off, I’m currently on the wrong sled for your question BUT, other than a few others in my regular crew everyone else is on an 850 as the majority. So my response is based on what I see from the majority of guys I ride with.
A couple of the guys on 850’s are from the coast but generally ride here for the deep dry snow instead of the wet heavier stuff. They both run 3” 165, however they say the 2.5” is a better track for “back home”. Where we used to ride in MT the snow is more on the average side of things and a bit wetter, maybe not coastal wet but relative to here definitely wetter with way less blower Pow type days. The shorter lugs overall worked better there, especially for slowing downhill. The shorter lug doesn’t fold as easily so less runaway feeling.
Here if you’re not on a 3”, no matter what brand sled, your day is filled with more digging out stucks and poaching lines.
Personally I would think for your majority snow conditions a 2.5” in 154 is the way to go. It’s only on the deepest of days the guys on 154 2.5’s have much trouble.
