First 2022 Seasonal LONG RANGE Winter Forecasts from NOAA...

[christopher]

La Niña Ended In May, So When Is The Break From This Heat In The US?​

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

La Niña weather patterns generally associated with dry condition in the Southwest ended in May. So when is the relief?

El Niño and La Niña​

SciJinks discusses the Difference Between El Niño and La Niña.

In Spanish, El Niño means “the little boy” and La Niña means “the little girl.” They are sort of like a brother and sister. Like many siblings, the two weather patterns are opposites in almost every way. La Niña causes water in the eastern Pacific to be colder than usual. In the same region, El Niño can cause the water to be warmer than usual. Areas that are hit with drought during La Niña years are pummeled with rain in El Niño years.

El Niño and La Niña: Frequently Asked Questions​

Climate.Gov discusses Frequently Asked Questions.

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a natural climate pattern across the tropical Pacific Ocean that swings back and forth every 3-7 years on average. Together, they are called ENSO (pronounced “en-so”), which is short for El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
The ENSO pattern in the tropical Pacific can be in one of three states: El Niño, Neutral, or La Niña. El Niño (the warm phase) and La Niña (the cool phase) lead to significant differences from the average ocean temperatures, winds, surface pressure, and rainfall across parts of the tropical Pacific. Neutral indicates that conditions are near their long-term average.
El Niño Conditions

During El Niño, the surface winds across the entire tropical Pacific are weaker than usual. Ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than average, and rainfall is below average over Indonesia and above average over the central or eastern Pacific.

La Niña Conditions

During La Niña, it’s the opposite. The surface winds across the entire tropical Pacific are stronger than usual, and most of the tropical Pacific Ocean is cooler than average. Rainfall increases over Indonesia (where waters remain warm) and decreases over the central tropical Pacific (which is cool). Over Indonesia, there is more rising air motion and lower surface pressure. There is more sinking air motion over the cooler waters of the central and eastern Pacific.

How long do El Niño and La Niña typically last?
El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last 9-12 months. They both tend to develop during the spring (March-June), reach peak intensity during the late autumn or winter (November-February), and then weaken during the spring or early summer (March-June).
Both El Niño and La Niña can last more than a year, but it is rare for El Niño events to last longer than a year or so, while it is common for La Niña to last for two years or more. The longest El Nino in the modern record lasted 18 months, while the longest la Niña lasted 33 months. Scientists aren’t sure why the duration of the two types of events can be so different.
Does global warming affect El Niño and La Niña?
There are many ways in which global warming could affect the frequency and intensity of El Niño / La Niña (see this ENSO blog post, for example), but scientists currently have low confidence in their ability to predict exactly how a warmer world affect the ENSO. Scientists have high confidence, however, that ENSO itself has been occurring for thousands of years, and will continue into the future. Global warming is likely to affect the impacts related to El Niño and La Niña, including extreme weather events.

Bye for Now, La Niña!​

On May 13, Climate.Gov said Bye for Now, La Niña!

La Niña conditions have ended and NOAA forecasters estimate about a 67% chance that neutral conditions will continue through the summer. The ENSO forecast for the fall is less confident, with odds of a second-year La Niña currently hovering around 50–55%.

That's the problem. La Niña has ended but there is no El Niño in sight. Worse yet, the odds of another La Niña are about 50%.

Blistering, Record-Breaking Heat​

Lytton, B.C. hit 113.9 degrees F, 45.5 degrees C. Amazing. Then it smashed that record.




47.9 Degrees C is 118.2 degrees F. Wow!

When Does It End?

Climate Predictions 6-10 Days​

8-14 Day Climate Probability​

Official 30-Day Forecast​

The above maps are from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.

Unfortunately, the models see no end to the heat wave. And the odds of rain are generally below average where rain is needed the most.

World Record Update

 

[christopher]

Oct-Nov-Dec 2021

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[christopher]

Nov-Dec-Jan 2021-22

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[christopher]

Dec-Jan-Feb 2021-22

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[christopher]

Jan-Feb-Mar 2022

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[christopher]

 

[boondocker97]

So... we're looking at a slow start and below average to average AT BEST?

 

[christopher]

So... we're looking at a slow start and below average to average AT BEST?

Doesn't look like anyone will be getting above average snowfall in general.
BUT
this is many months out and their LONG range forecasts are often poor.

Lets hope this one is WRONG

 

[Racer220]

I may need to find a few new peeps to ride with if that forecast is accurate. The crew i normally ride with won't even get their sleds out of storage if its not putting down bar deep storms. I don't see the problem with having to log hop and cross some open water to get some riding done lol.

 

[hansenmac]

last year it was supposed to be great and it sucked till February so i dont believe much of it.

 

[christopher]

I am an eternal optimist.
There is always GOOD SNOW somewhere if you are willing to make the ROAD TRIP to find it

 

[Clarke673]

An old farmer/ Indian wisdom says if it goes away fast and early it should come back the same. But... nothing would surprise me these days.

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk

 

[christopher]

An old farmer/ Indian wisdom says if it goes away fast and early it should come back the same. But... nothing would surprise me these days.

truth
anymore its pretty much anyone's best guess.
Last winter was just CRAZY.
Lots of HORRIBLE SNOW, but there was some REALLY GREAT SNOW as well.

 

[Mort2112]

If that forecast is true Southern Utah / 4 Corners is screwed. Last year was brutal, and they can't afford that again. I was at Powell earlier and it's really scary how low it was. I usually ride down there once or twice but haven't in a few years due to lack of snow.

 

[christopher]

If that forecast is true Southern Utah / 4 Corners is screwed. Last year was brutal, and they can't afford that again. I was at Powell earlier and it's really scary how low it was. I usually ride down there once or twice but haven't in a few years due to lack of snow.

Lake Powel, and thus Las Vegas, is in a WORLD OF HURT right now.

 

[Mort2112]

Lake Powel, and thus Las Vegas, is in a WORLD OF HURT right now.

Powell was very saddening. It's really bad.