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2 Weeks of snow then go fishing

donbrown

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Last "big" storm 1-3 March ... couple feet.

Light snow / showers expected till mid March.

Then .... break out the jet ski / kayak / fishing gear /

ARGH !!!!


Tuesday, February 24, 2009 9:23:26 AM


TUESDAY AM UPDATE:

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON....THEN THE UPPER JET WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL CA WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. SO MORE WIND ON THE WAY!! ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER A 5 DAY PERIOD (THROUGH SATURDAY)......PATTERN CHANGE COMING BY MID MARCH....DRY AGAIN?

TUESDAY MORNINGS GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER JET LIFTING NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROF RELOADING AT 140W. THAT SYSTEM WILL BE THE ONE THAT EVENTUALLY DUMPS A LOT OF SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

GUSTY WINDS RAKED THE EASTERN SIERRA LAST NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNINGS HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN THE TOWN OF MAMMOTH. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SHORT WAVE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE CREST WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON.


THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS STILL HIGHLIGHTED BY THE FACT THAT WE STILL HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE AT 170W....A TROF IN THE MEAN AT 140W AND A RIDGE DOWN STREAM AT 110W. THIS PATTERN STILL FAVORS A SUBTROPICAL TAP AT TIMES WHEN PERIODS OF AMPLIFICATION OCCUR. AT THE PRESENT.... SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL GIVE MAMMOTH A SUNNY DAY TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY BREEZY IN THE AM.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY AM IS ASSOCIATED WITH 110 KNOT UPPER JET. THIS WILL BRING BACK SNOW SHOWERS TO MAMMOTH WEDNESDAY AM. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO MAMMOTH THURSDAY AM WITH STRONGER WINDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.

THE NEW 12Z TUESDAY GFS HAS A STRONGER UPPER JET (140KNOTS) DIVING DUE SOUTH JUST OUTSIDE OF 140W WHICH RELOADS THE LONG WAVE AND SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM ABOUT SUNDAY/MONDAY. APPARENTLY...THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH NEXT WEEK.


DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS.............................:)
 
Last edited:

donbrown

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Snow Flurries thru Thurday. Couple inches accumulation.

Large storm over wekend starting late Saturday and into Monday. Storm favors northern California (north Fresno). Details not clear.

Long Term 2 weeks out ... large scale warming with little moisture


Wednesday, February 25, 2009 8:52:15 AM

"UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS......FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION...HEMISPHERIC PATTERN AND TELECONNECTIONS STILL FAVOR A LONGER TERM ACTIVE PATTERN"


MAMMOTH LAKES WILL EXPERIENCE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. AS THE UPPER JET STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. RFC QPF SHOWS ABOUT .2 INCHES TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...SO CONSIDERING THE OROGRAPHICAL EFFECTS...EXPECT ABOUT 2 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY OVER MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN.

THE UPPER JET REALLY GETS SQUEEZED OVER CENTRAL CA THURSDAY AND SHIFTS A BIT SOUTH OF ITS CURRENT AXIS....THIS ALLOWS A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AS COMPARED TO TODAY.....STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND WIND ADVISORY'S A GOOD POSSIBILITY TOMORROW.

THE UPPER JET SHIFTS BACK NORTH FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE OFF SHORE TROF AT 140W IN THE MEAN RELOADING (SEE BELOW). FRIDAY WILL BE MORE OF A FAIR DAY UP ON THE HILL WITH A DAY OF SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS, EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

NEXT SERIES OF EVENTS BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AS THE ITZ GETS TAPPED....AT THE SAME TIME, A BIG SLUG OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHES INTO CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NORTHERN CALIF.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN MAMMOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BIT BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY. THE DWEEBS WILL FINE TUNE ALL THIS IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF A GOOD SIZED STORM THAT WILL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF SNOWFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.


LONGER RANGE:

THE DIFFERENCES AT THE MOMENT FOR NEXT WEEK REVOLVE AROUND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. (WHAT ELSE IS NEW?) THE GFS IS QUICKER TO KICK THE LATEST BIT OF ENERGY PROGGED TO FORM IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH, THROUGH CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROF OFF SHORE AND THE PRECIP GOING FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROF LONGER. THE ECMWF RETROGRADES THIS TROF AND SAGS IT SOUTH TO ABOUT 30 NORTH TAPPING POTENTIALLY EVEN MORE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HEIGHTS DO RISE IN THE LATTER SCENARIO OVER CENTRAL CA AND SO SNOW LEVELS WOULD RISE AS WELL. CURRENTLY.....TELECONNECTIONS DO FAVOR THE ECMWF.
 
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