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January storms for Southern California ???

donbrown

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No big storms until the end of January?

Sunday, January 04, 2009 9:38:00 AM

ED BERRY'S NEW DISCUSSION SAYS IT ALL......"La-Nina well Entrenched -- PNA "Retrogression" Likely ~Days 10-20 OR BETWEEN THE 15TH AND 20TH OF JANUARY"

ANOTHER BLUE BIRD MORNING HERE IN MAMMOTH....AGAIN...TWEET TWEET!! COLD ...5 DEGREES AT THE VILLAGE AT 7:30AM..... AND -10 AT THE MAMMOTH AIRPORT.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S.

THEN....MOIST OVER RUNNING PATTERN BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY. NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION THOUGH...0 TO 1 INCH.

OUTLOOK:

PRETTY BLEAK......WHILE TRANSITION COMPLETES TO POSITIVE PHASE PNA....ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THE 7TH...THE NEW 12Z SUNDAY GFS HAS THE TROF SPLITTING A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH MORE DYNAMICS OVER THE SIERRA THEN LAST SEVERAL RUNS.....THIS COULD MEAN POSSIBLY 1 TO 3 INCHES?...THE DWEEBS HAVE TIME TO ADJUST FOR ANY INCREASE IN PRECIP AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL 4-5 DAYS AWAY. THEN MONSTER RIDGE BULGES INTO CALIFORNIA, POSITIVELY TILT NEXT WEEKEND....FOR CARLOS SANTANA CONDITION IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH THIS SYSTEM.....THERE IS BOTH UPPER 500MB SUPPORT AND SURFACE SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST A MODERATE OFF SHORE WIND EVENT. TEMPS WILL MOVE INTO THE 80S IN MANY AREAS BY SUNDAY AND THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH WARMER THEN NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. "FIRE INTEL KEEP EYE ON THE FIREBUGS"!!

THEN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEACH WEATHER FOR THE BUNNIES FOR THE WEEK OF THE 12TH OF JANUARY. VERY POOR AIR QUALITY WILL DEVELOP FOR INLAND VALLEYS OF CA., AS WELL AS MAMMOTH. THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY MAY EXPERIENCE MAJOR TULIE FOG EPISODE THAT WEEK...UNLESS......THE BIG UPPER ANTI-CYCLONE DOES NOT ACTUALLY BUILD OVER THE STATE AT 120WEST. LAST DECEMBER. A SIMILAR PATTERN DEVELOPED, AND WAS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA. IT NEVER QUITE MADE IT TO 120WEST AS RETROGRESSION OCCURRED BEFORE IT HAD THE CHANCE.

LONGER RANGE: UPDATED 1-4-09

ED BERRY'S DISCUSSION FROM SATURDAY THE 3RD OF JAN, LEADS THE DWEEBS TO BELIEVE THAT THE +PNA PATTERN SHOULD BE A SHORT LIVED ONE.....AS HE IS FORECASTING RETROGRESSION IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BETWEEN THE 13TH AND THE 23RD OF JANUARY. HOWEVER, THE DWEEBS STILL FEEL THAT WE WILL NOT GET INTO A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PHASE PNA BEFORE THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY.


DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS..............:)
 
B
Dec 16, 2007
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:( ya.. I'm thinking about going to San Diego next weekend, snow is pretty hard packed from melting and freezing i've been shooting alot of backcountry skiing and we are running out of untouched spots.. not much sledding unless your into jumping/trail riding...of which there is plenty of snow for. hmm.. might be able to find some good snow in the trees ..
 
B
Dec 16, 2007
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Mammoth Lakes, CA
www.pbase.com
hmm..not sure what happened (I never am) but they are now calling for a chance of snow on Thursday nite - Friday morning.. no word on how much yet. (got my fingers crossed)

Thursday nite: A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. North wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 10am. Partly cloudy, with a high near 37.
 
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donbrown

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hmm..not sure what happened (I never am) but they are now calling for a chance of snow on Thursday nite - Friday morning.. no word on how much yet. (got my fingers crossed)

Thursday nite: A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. North wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 10am. Partly cloudy, with a high near 37.


One to 3 inches is the expected snowfall.

Hopefully it will be a FREAK storm and dump 1-3 feet
 

donbrown

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If only my plot to get everybody in the town of ML & June to open their freezer doors, turn off the heat, and turn on the sprinklers would catch on.

I tried to do that in Illinois and all that happened was the Mississippi River flooded.

DWEEB still saying maybe a change in Pattern 20 January and then a new analysis because new pattern after 20 January allows no forecasting past 5 days.


On a discouraging note ... suppose to be lots of fog and record high temps in the next week !!! :mad:
 
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