B
About time!!
Looking at around 56" over the next week in Mammoth!
- Thread starter brahm
- Start date
Now you're talking 
I heard 54" max!
HUIRRICANE FORCE WINDS IN MAMMOTH !!!
Thursday, December 11, 2008 5:14:13 PM
"VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND BECOMING HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY" BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FORECAST UPDATE THURSDAY EVENING:
UPDATED SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR MAMMOTH LAKES AT 9,000 FEET:
4 TO 6 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
15 TO 30 INCHES BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SNOW TO WATER RATIONS 20 TO 30:1 LIKELY OVER HIGHER ELEVS
THE MAIN CHANGES IN BOTH 00Z AND 06Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF WERE IN THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE FAR WEST. THE MAIN MESSAGE IS THAT THEY ARE A BIT LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO THE FACT THAT 500MB WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND....THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING A BIT MORE OVER LAND........HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF WESTERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND SO WE WILL STILL GET A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS WAS SHOWN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD YESTERDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY APPEAR TO THE THE BEST DAYS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN A COLD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ONE TO TWO FEET SEEMS REASONABLE AT THE MOMENT FOR THE UPPER ELEVATIONS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
THE TWIST IN THE PATTERN SEEMS TO HAVE A GREATER EFFECT ON HOW THE JET WILL BE BEHAVING. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING A 150KNOTT JET WILL BE EFFECTING MAMMOTH...WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE FRONT RIGHT EXIT REGION. ANTECEDENT WARMTH FROM OUR CURRENT WEATHER AND THE DYNAMICS FROM A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HAS PROMPTED THE NWS TO HOIST HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ABOUT SUNRISE HERE LOCALLY. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE RARE SITUATIONS WHERE THE UPPER JET CAN BE PULLED DOWN TO THE SURFACE SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A "TROPO-FOLD" WITH THE JET INTO OUR AREA ABOUT SUNRISE SATURDAY.
HERE IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE WSFORNO DISCUSSION WITH A TECHNICAL EXPLANATION.
"30AGL NAM12 WINDS WERE 50+KT ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA FROM I-80 SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONO COUNTY WITH 80+KT AT THE RIDGES. CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE WRF SHOWED WELL DEVELOPED STANDING WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MONO COUNTY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS IS ABOUT THE TIME 150KT JET AND TROPOPAUSE FOLD NOSE INTO THE REGION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONT."
THE SCREAMING MESSAGE....IS TO SECURE ALL ITEMS OUTSIDE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS COULD GUST TO HURRICANE FORCE LOCALLY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MONO COUNTY.
"THE DWEEBS CRITERIA" FOR 24 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HERE IN THE MAMMOTH AREA AT 8000 FEET.
A. LIGHT 1 TO 6 INCHES
B. MODERATE 6+ TO 18 INCHES
C. HEAVY 18+ INCHES TO 36 INCHES
D. VERY HEAVY 36+ INCHES TO 48 INCHES
E. *EXCESSIVE 4 FEET+ IN 24 HOURS
* THIS IS KNOWN TO HAPPEN ONLY A FEW TIMES WITHIN A 10 YEAR PERIOD
Thursday, December 11, 2008 5:14:13 PM
"VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND BECOMING HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY" BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FORECAST UPDATE THURSDAY EVENING:
UPDATED SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR MAMMOTH LAKES AT 9,000 FEET:
4 TO 6 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
15 TO 30 INCHES BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SNOW TO WATER RATIONS 20 TO 30:1 LIKELY OVER HIGHER ELEVS
THE MAIN CHANGES IN BOTH 00Z AND 06Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF WERE IN THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE FAR WEST. THE MAIN MESSAGE IS THAT THEY ARE A BIT LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO THE FACT THAT 500MB WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND....THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING A BIT MORE OVER LAND........HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF WESTERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND SO WE WILL STILL GET A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS WAS SHOWN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD YESTERDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY APPEAR TO THE THE BEST DAYS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN A COLD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ONE TO TWO FEET SEEMS REASONABLE AT THE MOMENT FOR THE UPPER ELEVATIONS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
THE TWIST IN THE PATTERN SEEMS TO HAVE A GREATER EFFECT ON HOW THE JET WILL BE BEHAVING. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING A 150KNOTT JET WILL BE EFFECTING MAMMOTH...WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE FRONT RIGHT EXIT REGION. ANTECEDENT WARMTH FROM OUR CURRENT WEATHER AND THE DYNAMICS FROM A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HAS PROMPTED THE NWS TO HOIST HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ABOUT SUNRISE HERE LOCALLY. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE RARE SITUATIONS WHERE THE UPPER JET CAN BE PULLED DOWN TO THE SURFACE SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A "TROPO-FOLD" WITH THE JET INTO OUR AREA ABOUT SUNRISE SATURDAY.
HERE IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE WSFORNO DISCUSSION WITH A TECHNICAL EXPLANATION.
"30AGL NAM12 WINDS WERE 50+KT ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA FROM I-80 SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONO COUNTY WITH 80+KT AT THE RIDGES. CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE WRF SHOWED WELL DEVELOPED STANDING WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MONO COUNTY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS IS ABOUT THE TIME 150KT JET AND TROPOPAUSE FOLD NOSE INTO THE REGION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONT."
THE SCREAMING MESSAGE....IS TO SECURE ALL ITEMS OUTSIDE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS COULD GUST TO HURRICANE FORCE LOCALLY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MONO COUNTY.
"THE DWEEBS CRITERIA" FOR 24 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HERE IN THE MAMMOTH AREA AT 8000 FEET.
A. LIGHT 1 TO 6 INCHES
B. MODERATE 6+ TO 18 INCHES
C. HEAVY 18+ INCHES TO 36 INCHES
D. VERY HEAVY 36+ INCHES TO 48 INCHES
E. *EXCESSIVE 4 FEET+ IN 24 HOURS
* THIS IS KNOWN TO HAPPEN ONLY A FEW TIMES WITHIN A 10 YEAR PERIOD
Friday, December 12, 2008 9:12:40 AM
ARCTIC GORILLA HEADED INTO THE EASTERN SIERRA....DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT....
INTO SATURDAY MORNING....LOCAL PLUMBERS TO BE BUSY NEXT WEEK WITH BROKEN PIPE CALLS....THEN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN HINTED BY 12Z GFS FRIDAY OUT IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC MAY BRING A SOUTHWEST HOSER TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS. SO HEAVIER SNOWFALLS WITH HIGHER SNOW TO WATER RATIONS MAY OCCUR JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS HERE IN THE EASTERN SIERRA.
STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK HERE IN SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY BETWEEN 4:00AM AND 8:00AM SATURDAY. FOLKS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA CORRIDOR OF MONO COUNTY SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT THEIR PROPERTY SECURING LOOSE ITEMS OF ANY KIND TODAY.....PROTECT WINDOWS ON WEST FACING SIDES.....AREAS LIKE LAKE CROWLEY...ASPEN SPRINGS RANCH....LEE VINING.....MONO CITY.....NORTH TO BRIDGEPORT AND WALKER WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUBJECT TO THESE WINDS. GUST 90 TO 100MPH ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THESE AREAS.
12Z MODEL RUNS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A STRONG WIND FIELD OF 65 KNOTS AT 10,000 DEVELOPING, AND TRANSLATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH A STANDING WAVE ABOVE THE CRITICAL LAYER WILL COMPRESS WINDS TO DOWNSLOPE, TO SOME 80 KNOTS TONIGHT AND INTO MID MORNING THROUGH OUT MONO COUNTY. ANOTHER INTERESTING POINT IS THAT THE JET AT 300MB IS SLICING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN CA WITH MONO COUNTY IN THE FRONT RIGHT EXIT REGION. A TROPOFOLD TRAVELING WITH THE UPPER JET AND FRONT WAS POINTED OUT BY NWSRNO, AND WILL HELP COMPRESS THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO THE EVENING WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING BUT BEGIN TO PICK UP LATER IN THE DAY.
AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN THE MAMMOTH AREA, LATER SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST WILL BE MONDAY...INTO TUESDAY WHERE ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 FEET PLUS IS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY AM OVER THE UPPER ELEVATIONS.
MAMMOTH WILL BE IN FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS OF BELOW ZERO TEMPS AND DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TEENS BY TURNING THE HEAT UP.
ANOTHER STORM IS EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.....MAMMOTH SHOULD BE BOOKED FOR THE HOLIDAYS.....RECESSION OR NOT AS THIS AREA AND ITS GREAT SKIING/BOARDING IS JUST TOO COMPELLING!
ARCTIC GORILLA HEADED INTO THE EASTERN SIERRA....DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT....
INTO SATURDAY MORNING....LOCAL PLUMBERS TO BE BUSY NEXT WEEK WITH BROKEN PIPE CALLS....THEN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN HINTED BY 12Z GFS FRIDAY OUT IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC MAY BRING A SOUTHWEST HOSER TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS. SO HEAVIER SNOWFALLS WITH HIGHER SNOW TO WATER RATIONS MAY OCCUR JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS HERE IN THE EASTERN SIERRA.
STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK HERE IN SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY BETWEEN 4:00AM AND 8:00AM SATURDAY. FOLKS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA CORRIDOR OF MONO COUNTY SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT THEIR PROPERTY SECURING LOOSE ITEMS OF ANY KIND TODAY.....PROTECT WINDOWS ON WEST FACING SIDES.....AREAS LIKE LAKE CROWLEY...ASPEN SPRINGS RANCH....LEE VINING.....MONO CITY.....NORTH TO BRIDGEPORT AND WALKER WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUBJECT TO THESE WINDS. GUST 90 TO 100MPH ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THESE AREAS.
12Z MODEL RUNS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A STRONG WIND FIELD OF 65 KNOTS AT 10,000 DEVELOPING, AND TRANSLATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH A STANDING WAVE ABOVE THE CRITICAL LAYER WILL COMPRESS WINDS TO DOWNSLOPE, TO SOME 80 KNOTS TONIGHT AND INTO MID MORNING THROUGH OUT MONO COUNTY. ANOTHER INTERESTING POINT IS THAT THE JET AT 300MB IS SLICING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN CA WITH MONO COUNTY IN THE FRONT RIGHT EXIT REGION. A TROPOFOLD TRAVELING WITH THE UPPER JET AND FRONT WAS POINTED OUT BY NWSRNO, AND WILL HELP COMPRESS THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO THE EVENING WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING BUT BEGIN TO PICK UP LATER IN THE DAY.
AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN THE MAMMOTH AREA, LATER SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST WILL BE MONDAY...INTO TUESDAY WHERE ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 FEET PLUS IS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY AM OVER THE UPPER ELEVATIONS.
MAMMOTH WILL BE IN FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS OF BELOW ZERO TEMPS AND DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TEENS BY TURNING THE HEAT UP.
ANOTHER STORM IS EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.....MAMMOTH SHOULD BE BOOKED FOR THE HOLIDAYS.....RECESSION OR NOT AS THIS AREA AND ITS GREAT SKIING/BOARDING IS JUST TOO COMPELLING!
Mammoth forecast 100 inches by January 1st !!!
Sunday, December 14, 2008
WINTER STORM WARNINGS HOISTED FOR TONIGHT...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.....10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE TOWN OF MAMMOTH WITH UP TO 40 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE CREST. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE 395 CORRIDOR NORTH TONIGHT.
A DEEP COLD UPPER LOW OFF WASHINGTON COAST IS PROGGED TO TRACK SSE BEFORE OPENING INTO A TROF OVER NORTHERN CA TUESDAY MORNING.....AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC...THIS WILL TRACK THE ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS BEEN COMING DOWN THE WEST COAST FROM NNW.....MORE OVER WATER AND WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND MOVE IT INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL PICK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BE HEAVY BY LATE EVENING. AS MENTIONED A FEW DAYS AGO, THE GFS OFTEN UNDERPLAYS THE PRECIP IN THIS PATTERN....SO I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THREE FEET OR A BIT MORE ABOVE 10000 FEET BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEW OPERATIONAL GFS 12Z HAS THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING MORE EAST NOW. SO CONFIDENCE ANY ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SUNDAY IS NOT GOOD. UNSETTLED WOULD BE A BETTER TERM.
THE LONGER RANGE PROGS FROM THIS MORNINGS 12Z SUNDAY GFS RUN, CONTINUE THE TREND OF RETROGRESSION OF THE LONG RANGE RIDGE....TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THERE IS AN AMPLE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE LONG WAVE EASTERN PACIFIC STRUCTURE WEEK TWO. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME WETTER AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THIS MORNING, THAT WE COULD HAVE WELL OVER 100 INCHES OF SNOW FALL ON MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN BY DECEMBERS END.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
WINTER STORM WARNINGS HOISTED FOR TONIGHT...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.....10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE TOWN OF MAMMOTH WITH UP TO 40 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE CREST. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE 395 CORRIDOR NORTH TONIGHT.
A DEEP COLD UPPER LOW OFF WASHINGTON COAST IS PROGGED TO TRACK SSE BEFORE OPENING INTO A TROF OVER NORTHERN CA TUESDAY MORNING.....AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC...THIS WILL TRACK THE ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS BEEN COMING DOWN THE WEST COAST FROM NNW.....MORE OVER WATER AND WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND MOVE IT INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL PICK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BE HEAVY BY LATE EVENING. AS MENTIONED A FEW DAYS AGO, THE GFS OFTEN UNDERPLAYS THE PRECIP IN THIS PATTERN....SO I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THREE FEET OR A BIT MORE ABOVE 10000 FEET BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEW OPERATIONAL GFS 12Z HAS THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING MORE EAST NOW. SO CONFIDENCE ANY ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SUNDAY IS NOT GOOD. UNSETTLED WOULD BE A BETTER TERM.
THE LONGER RANGE PROGS FROM THIS MORNINGS 12Z SUNDAY GFS RUN, CONTINUE THE TREND OF RETROGRESSION OF THE LONG RANGE RIDGE....TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THERE IS AN AMPLE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE LONG WAVE EASTERN PACIFIC STRUCTURE WEEK TWO. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME WETTER AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THIS MORNING, THAT WE COULD HAVE WELL OVER 100 INCHES OF SNOW FALL ON MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN BY DECEMBERS END.
Mammoth Report
Tuesday, December 16, 2008 8:27:36 AM
STORM TOTALS OVER 3 FEET SO FAR...A FEW MORE INCHES POSSIBLE TODAY....THEN UPPER LOW TO EJECT THROUGH SO-CAL WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT KICKER....FOR A PERFECT FIELD GOAL THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SOME UP-SLOPE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY FROM BACK WASHING UPPER LOW.
NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM TO BRING A SHOT OF LIGHT POWDER TO OUR AREA LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS REALLY A GLORIFIED INSIDE SLIDER WITH A BIT MORE WIND....(NO OROGRAPHICS) (2 TO 5 INCHES)
THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BE A GROUND BLIZZARD ALONG THE 395 CORRIDOR NORTH TO RENO....THEN COLDER IS THE WORD WITH LOWS IN THE 10 BELOW RANGE FOR THE TOWN SATURDAY MORNING AND NOT ALL THAT MUCH DIFFERENT FOR SUNDAY AM. "THERE WILL BE SOME ROSY CHEEKS FROM THE NIGHT OF LIGHTS SATURDAY NIGHT!"
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES TO 160WEST BY MONDAY FOR THE NEXT SERIES OF SYSTEMS PACKING MORE MOISTURE AND NOT SO MUCH COLD NEXT WEEK. AND YES.....IT WILL BE A WHITE CHRISTMAS WITH A ROARING STORM IN PROCESS! WITH WELL OVER 40 INCHES NOW FALLEN ON THE HILL....100 PLUS INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER STILL LOOKING VERY GOOD!!!!
Tuesday, December 16, 2008 8:27:36 AM
STORM TOTALS OVER 3 FEET SO FAR...A FEW MORE INCHES POSSIBLE TODAY....THEN UPPER LOW TO EJECT THROUGH SO-CAL WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT KICKER....FOR A PERFECT FIELD GOAL THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SOME UP-SLOPE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY FROM BACK WASHING UPPER LOW.
NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM TO BRING A SHOT OF LIGHT POWDER TO OUR AREA LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS REALLY A GLORIFIED INSIDE SLIDER WITH A BIT MORE WIND....(NO OROGRAPHICS) (2 TO 5 INCHES)
THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BE A GROUND BLIZZARD ALONG THE 395 CORRIDOR NORTH TO RENO....THEN COLDER IS THE WORD WITH LOWS IN THE 10 BELOW RANGE FOR THE TOWN SATURDAY MORNING AND NOT ALL THAT MUCH DIFFERENT FOR SUNDAY AM. "THERE WILL BE SOME ROSY CHEEKS FROM THE NIGHT OF LIGHTS SATURDAY NIGHT!"
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES TO 160WEST BY MONDAY FOR THE NEXT SERIES OF SYSTEMS PACKING MORE MOISTURE AND NOT SO MUCH COLD NEXT WEEK. AND YES.....IT WILL BE A WHITE CHRISTMAS WITH A ROARING STORM IN PROCESS! WITH WELL OVER 40 INCHES NOW FALLEN ON THE HILL....100 PLUS INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER STILL LOOKING VERY GOOD!!!!
J
Brahm, How's the riding now? I don't see anything on the groomer page yet.
If the grooming is paid for by the state OHV money will not be released until the 19-22 of December. Meaning ... areas where it is groomed with OHV money like SNO PARKS is not gonna happen until the 19-22 December.
Mammoth forecast
Wednesday, December 17, 2008 8:29:13 AM
"COLD STORMY WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH ARCTIC INFLUENCE TO GIVE WAY TO WETTER PATTERN UNDER MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS BY CHRISTMAS...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTER STORMS WITH SNOW LEVELS
BACK TO 6K/7K FEET BY CHRISTMAS, AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S SEEMS TO BE THE PLAN"
8:00AM UPDATE:
NEW 12Z GFS WEDNESDAY SHOWS A GOOD CHUNK OF 700MB RH OF 70% FROM ANOTHER STORM TO THE WEST LINKING UP WITH COLD TROF FRIDAY MORNING IN THE CENTRAL SIERRA.....WE MAY END UP DOING BETTER THEN EXPECTED SNOWFALL WISE FOR BEING SO FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN DYNAMICS!
FORECAST SNOWFALL; 5 TO 10 INCHES IN TOWN AND 12 TO 18 OVER THE UPPER ELEVATIONS AT 20:1 RATIOS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
FROM 4:30AM WEDNESDAY:
COLD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.....RECORD LOW WAS 0 SET BACK IN 1993
"WELL DIGGERS LUNCH BUCKET COLD TO CONTINUE AS NEXT ARCTIC BLAST HEADS TO MAMMOTH FRIDAY.....OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY WEDNESDAY DUE TO BACK WASH OF SOUTHERN CA WX SYSTEM."
COLD WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS ARCTIC FETCH FROM 70 NORTH MAKES ITS WAY TO GREAT BASIN VIA BC,CAN. UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN AT 140 TO 150 THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM HEADED THIS WAY FOR FRIDAY AND WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS....COLD WIND CHILLS AND MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL. A POLAR VORTEX IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AS ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE LEFT-EXIT REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD OFFER COMPENSATION FOR A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...ENCOURAGING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO .75 INCHES ALONG THE FAVORED EASTERN SLOPES OF MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MONO COUNTY, MAMMOTH IS ON THE SOUTHERN BORDER THIS TIME OF MODERATE AMOUNTS. ADDITIONALLY, "THERE IS A CHUNK OF 700MB MOISTURE ON THE OOZ AND 06Z GFS AND WRF RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE AND TRIES TO LINK UP WITH WX FRONT ON FRIDAY." SO DECIDED TO BUMP UP EARLIER QPF A BIT.....RATIOS WILL STILL BE VERY HIGH.....20:1 SO 5 TO 10 INCHES SEEMS POSSIBLE FOR THE TOWN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND BETWEEN 10 TO 18 INCHES SEEMS POSSIBLE AT 10,000 FEET TO THE CREST AT BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY...THE FIRST INAUGURAL FLIGHT OF HORIZONS AIR TO MAMMOTH/YOSEMITE AP, SHOULD GET OFF WITH OUT A HITCH AS STRONGEST 700MB WINDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY AND THEN MAINLY TAHOE NORTH.
THE DWEEBER......
Wednesday, December 17, 2008 8:29:13 AM
"COLD STORMY WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH ARCTIC INFLUENCE TO GIVE WAY TO WETTER PATTERN UNDER MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS BY CHRISTMAS...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTER STORMS WITH SNOW LEVELS
BACK TO 6K/7K FEET BY CHRISTMAS, AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S SEEMS TO BE THE PLAN"
8:00AM UPDATE:
NEW 12Z GFS WEDNESDAY SHOWS A GOOD CHUNK OF 700MB RH OF 70% FROM ANOTHER STORM TO THE WEST LINKING UP WITH COLD TROF FRIDAY MORNING IN THE CENTRAL SIERRA.....WE MAY END UP DOING BETTER THEN EXPECTED SNOWFALL WISE FOR BEING SO FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN DYNAMICS!
FORECAST SNOWFALL; 5 TO 10 INCHES IN TOWN AND 12 TO 18 OVER THE UPPER ELEVATIONS AT 20:1 RATIOS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
FROM 4:30AM WEDNESDAY:
COLD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.....RECORD LOW WAS 0 SET BACK IN 1993
"WELL DIGGERS LUNCH BUCKET COLD TO CONTINUE AS NEXT ARCTIC BLAST HEADS TO MAMMOTH FRIDAY.....OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY WEDNESDAY DUE TO BACK WASH OF SOUTHERN CA WX SYSTEM."
COLD WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS ARCTIC FETCH FROM 70 NORTH MAKES ITS WAY TO GREAT BASIN VIA BC,CAN. UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN AT 140 TO 150 THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM HEADED THIS WAY FOR FRIDAY AND WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS....COLD WIND CHILLS AND MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL. A POLAR VORTEX IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AS ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE LEFT-EXIT REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD OFFER COMPENSATION FOR A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...ENCOURAGING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO .75 INCHES ALONG THE FAVORED EASTERN SLOPES OF MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MONO COUNTY, MAMMOTH IS ON THE SOUTHERN BORDER THIS TIME OF MODERATE AMOUNTS. ADDITIONALLY, "THERE IS A CHUNK OF 700MB MOISTURE ON THE OOZ AND 06Z GFS AND WRF RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE AND TRIES TO LINK UP WITH WX FRONT ON FRIDAY." SO DECIDED TO BUMP UP EARLIER QPF A BIT.....RATIOS WILL STILL BE VERY HIGH.....20:1 SO 5 TO 10 INCHES SEEMS POSSIBLE FOR THE TOWN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND BETWEEN 10 TO 18 INCHES SEEMS POSSIBLE AT 10,000 FEET TO THE CREST AT BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY...THE FIRST INAUGURAL FLIGHT OF HORIZONS AIR TO MAMMOTH/YOSEMITE AP, SHOULD GET OFF WITH OUT A HITCH AS STRONGEST 700MB WINDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY AND THEN MAINLY TAHOE NORTH.
THE DWEEBER......
Just talked to Bishop Arctic Cat
They rode last night.
Unloaded Smokey Bear Flats 3-4 feet rode to the main lodge .... 5 plus feet.
No base and the snow is light and blowing.
They rode last night.
Unloaded Smokey Bear Flats 3-4 feet rode to the main lodge .... 5 plus feet.
No base and the snow is light and blowing.
Dweeb says snow every day thru Christmas.
Snowfall ... 3 inches to a foot a day EVERYDAY.
Then a real storm betweeen Christmas NewYears.
Sunday, December 21, 2008 10:37:31 PM
A SERIES OF SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL TO THE EASTERN SIERRA....COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR CHRISTMAS.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50MPH POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT....5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW HAD FALLEN AS OF 10:00PM AT THE MAIN LODGE AND ANOTHER 5-6 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY 10:00AM MONDAY MORNING. ABOUT HALF THAT AMOUNT WILL FALL IN TOWN. ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN TOWN AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 OVER THE UPPER ELEVATIONS MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER VORT CENTER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE WE GET A BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY.
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTION ON TUESDAY....THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY CHRISTMAS EVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. LOOK FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS......3 TO 6 INCHES BY AFTERNOON CHRISTMAS DAY.
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM ROLLS IN CHRISTMAS DAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS. SNOWFALL AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND POWDERY INTO THE NIGHT. ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN TOWN AND UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY EVENING AT 20:1 RATIOS.
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS......................
Snowfall ... 3 inches to a foot a day EVERYDAY.
Then a real storm betweeen Christmas NewYears.
Sunday, December 21, 2008 10:37:31 PM
A SERIES OF SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL TO THE EASTERN SIERRA....COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR CHRISTMAS.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50MPH POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT....5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW HAD FALLEN AS OF 10:00PM AT THE MAIN LODGE AND ANOTHER 5-6 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY 10:00AM MONDAY MORNING. ABOUT HALF THAT AMOUNT WILL FALL IN TOWN. ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN TOWN AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 OVER THE UPPER ELEVATIONS MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER VORT CENTER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE WE GET A BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY.
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTION ON TUESDAY....THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY CHRISTMAS EVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. LOOK FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS......3 TO 6 INCHES BY AFTERNOON CHRISTMAS DAY.
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM ROLLS IN CHRISTMAS DAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS. SNOWFALL AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND POWDERY INTO THE NIGHT. ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN TOWN AND UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY EVENING AT 20:1 RATIOS.
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS......................
Last edited:
Wednesday, December 24, 2008 7:40:47 AM
QPF WAS ADJUSTED WITHIN EXISTING TEXT>>>>>>>>>>
Tuesday, December 23, 2008 10:56:58 PM
"STORMY WEATHER INTO THE THE WEEKEND......THEN POSITIVE PHASE PNA PATTERN TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN CONUS THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER"
"THE GREAT CHRISTMAS BLIZZARD OF 2008 IS UPON US"
WE HAVE TWO MORE SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. ONE THAT IS SPLIT OFF A BIT FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES THAT IS HEADED FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NEXT GORILLA BEHIND IT. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL PRIME THE PUMP A BIT BY ADDING EXTRA MOISTURE INTO THE AIR-MASS WHILE THE SECOND RINGS IT OUT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY FROM THE FIRST SYSTEM AND BY "EARLY" CHRISTMAS MORNING THERE WILL BE 12+ IN TOWN WITH UP TO 18 INCHES ON THE HILL. THE NEXT 24 HOURS PERIOD SHOWS ANOTHER 10 - 15 INCHES IN TOWN AND ANOTHER 24 INCHES ON THE UPPER MOUNTAIN. HPC IS FORECASTING 3 INCHES OF WATER IN THAT 48 HOUR PERIOD FOR THE MAMMOTH CREST...AND AT 15:1 TO 20:1 THAT'S ABOUT 45 INCHES+ OF SNOW FOR THE 48 HOURS PERIOD ON THE UPPER MOUNTAIN. THIS STORM LOOKS TO DROP A GOOD TWO FEET IN TOWN BETWEEN TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
ONE MORE IMPORTANT THING WILL BE THE WINDS......
THE WINDS WILL PICK UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PEAK BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z CHRISTMAS DAY BUT WILL BLOW ALL DAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FULL ON BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF CHRISTMAS MORNING....AGAIN THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 4:00AM THROUGH 9:00AM CHRISTMAS DAY.
DO NOT PLAN ANY RENO TRIPS THAT YOU WILL HAVE TO RETURN ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS THERE WILL BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF WIND RELATED "ROAD CLOSURES" BY CHRISTMAS MORNING. IF YOU HAVE FLIGHTS OUT OF RENO CANNON ON CHRISTMAS DAY, LEAVE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PLAN ON SPENDING THE NIGHT.
LONGER RANGE:
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THE FIRST WEEK OF THE NEXT YEAR.
QPF WAS ADJUSTED WITHIN EXISTING TEXT>>>>>>>>>>
Tuesday, December 23, 2008 10:56:58 PM
"STORMY WEATHER INTO THE THE WEEKEND......THEN POSITIVE PHASE PNA PATTERN TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN CONUS THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER"
"THE GREAT CHRISTMAS BLIZZARD OF 2008 IS UPON US"
WE HAVE TWO MORE SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. ONE THAT IS SPLIT OFF A BIT FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES THAT IS HEADED FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NEXT GORILLA BEHIND IT. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL PRIME THE PUMP A BIT BY ADDING EXTRA MOISTURE INTO THE AIR-MASS WHILE THE SECOND RINGS IT OUT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY FROM THE FIRST SYSTEM AND BY "EARLY" CHRISTMAS MORNING THERE WILL BE 12+ IN TOWN WITH UP TO 18 INCHES ON THE HILL. THE NEXT 24 HOURS PERIOD SHOWS ANOTHER 10 - 15 INCHES IN TOWN AND ANOTHER 24 INCHES ON THE UPPER MOUNTAIN. HPC IS FORECASTING 3 INCHES OF WATER IN THAT 48 HOUR PERIOD FOR THE MAMMOTH CREST...AND AT 15:1 TO 20:1 THAT'S ABOUT 45 INCHES+ OF SNOW FOR THE 48 HOURS PERIOD ON THE UPPER MOUNTAIN. THIS STORM LOOKS TO DROP A GOOD TWO FEET IN TOWN BETWEEN TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
ONE MORE IMPORTANT THING WILL BE THE WINDS......
THE WINDS WILL PICK UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PEAK BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z CHRISTMAS DAY BUT WILL BLOW ALL DAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FULL ON BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF CHRISTMAS MORNING....AGAIN THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 4:00AM THROUGH 9:00AM CHRISTMAS DAY.
DO NOT PLAN ANY RENO TRIPS THAT YOU WILL HAVE TO RETURN ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS THERE WILL BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF WIND RELATED "ROAD CLOSURES" BY CHRISTMAS MORNING. IF YOU HAVE FLIGHTS OUT OF RENO CANNON ON CHRISTMAS DAY, LEAVE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PLAN ON SPENDING THE NIGHT.
LONGER RANGE:
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THE FIRST WEEK OF THE NEXT YEAR.
Sunday, December 28, 2008 7:30:11 AM
LONGER RANGE BEYOND DAY 10 SHOWS AN INTENSE COMBINATION OF +PNA AND NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN BEGINNING THE 2ND WEEK OF JANUARY IN THE NEW YEAR. HOWEVER.....BEFORE THAT SETS UP, THERE IS AN INCREASE OF ENSEMBLES THAT INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SHOT OF ENERGY OR TWO THAT MAY BENEFIT THE EASTERN SIERRA IN THE FORM OF SOME SNOWFALL THE WEEKEND OF NEW YEARS AND JUST BEYOND...AS THE CURRENT TROF IN THE GULF OF AK DEEPENS AND PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTH THEN EAST ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND THE UPPER LONG WAVE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC EVENTUALLY MOVES TO THE WEST COAST DURING WEEK TWO. THAT SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE STORMY PATTERN OVER THE FAR WEST. THE DWEEBS WILL COMMENT FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD THAT BECOME LIKELY.
ADDITIONALLY.....IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW AMPLIFIED THE UPPER PATTERN WILL GET BEYOND DAY 10. THE WINTER SO FAR (DEC) HAS BEEN COLDER THAN NORMAL. OFTEN TIMES IT WILL GO IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION COME LATE JANUARY INTO FEBRUARY WITH WARMER WETTER STORMS. THAT CAN RESULT FROM A POSITIVE PNA/ TROF-WEST COAST RIDGE-TROF PATTERN. WELL SEE IN TIME. ED BERRY'S NEW DISCUSSION TODAY LEADS ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THE UP COMING POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WILL NOT LAST THAT LONG.
PS...THERE IS A VERY NICE WARM POOL OF SSTA NORTH OF HAWAII
Saturday, December 27, 2008 8:19:10 AM
A BIT OF OVER-RUNNING MOISTURE MAY POISE A THREAT OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING....NO REAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED, EXCEPT A SLIGHT DUSTING.....THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE A DRY ONE WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES BY MONDAY AND STAY THERE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS AT NIGHT INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.....WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.....NEXT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL BE SATURDAY WHEN THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS....BUT NO BIG DEAL! THE LONGEST RANGE CHARTS ARE DRY THROUGH THE 9TH....SO WE MAY BE IN FOR A 2 TO 3 WEEK PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.
LONGER RANGE BEYOND DAY 10 SHOWS AN INTENSE COMBINATION OF +PNA AND NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN BEGINNING THE 2ND WEEK OF JANUARY IN THE NEW YEAR. HOWEVER.....BEFORE THAT SETS UP, THERE IS AN INCREASE OF ENSEMBLES THAT INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SHOT OF ENERGY OR TWO THAT MAY BENEFIT THE EASTERN SIERRA IN THE FORM OF SOME SNOWFALL THE WEEKEND OF NEW YEARS AND JUST BEYOND...AS THE CURRENT TROF IN THE GULF OF AK DEEPENS AND PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTH THEN EAST ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND THE UPPER LONG WAVE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC EVENTUALLY MOVES TO THE WEST COAST DURING WEEK TWO. THAT SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE STORMY PATTERN OVER THE FAR WEST. THE DWEEBS WILL COMMENT FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD THAT BECOME LIKELY.
ADDITIONALLY.....IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW AMPLIFIED THE UPPER PATTERN WILL GET BEYOND DAY 10. THE WINTER SO FAR (DEC) HAS BEEN COLDER THAN NORMAL. OFTEN TIMES IT WILL GO IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION COME LATE JANUARY INTO FEBRUARY WITH WARMER WETTER STORMS. THAT CAN RESULT FROM A POSITIVE PNA/ TROF-WEST COAST RIDGE-TROF PATTERN. WELL SEE IN TIME. ED BERRY'S NEW DISCUSSION TODAY LEADS ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THE UP COMING POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WILL NOT LAST THAT LONG.
PS...THERE IS A VERY NICE WARM POOL OF SSTA NORTH OF HAWAII
Saturday, December 27, 2008 8:19:10 AM
A BIT OF OVER-RUNNING MOISTURE MAY POISE A THREAT OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING....NO REAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED, EXCEPT A SLIGHT DUSTING.....THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE A DRY ONE WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES BY MONDAY AND STAY THERE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS AT NIGHT INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.....WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.....NEXT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL BE SATURDAY WHEN THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS....BUT NO BIG DEAL! THE LONGEST RANGE CHARTS ARE DRY THROUGH THE 9TH....SO WE MAY BE IN FOR A 2 TO 3 WEEK PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.
Thursday, January 01, 2009 3:14:17 PM
"UPDATED TO ADJUST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS"
NEW YEARS DAY UPDATE:
JET STREAM TO SAG SOUTH ONE MORE TIME BRINGING NEW SNOW SNOWFALL TO THE UPPER ELEVATIONS BEFORE POSITIVE PHASE PNA TAKES OVER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC THIS MORNING. LATEST INFER-RED SAT PICTURES SHOWS BACK OF THE WAVE THAT WILL EFFECT OUR AREA FRIDAY ABOUT 145 WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL ALONG A ZONAL 130KT UPPER JET STRETCHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 50N TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW 12Z CANADIAN SURFACE CHARTS HAS AS 1002MB SURFACE LOW JUST OFF SHORE OF WASHINGTON STATE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL JET STREAM ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TODAY AND WILL AMPLIFY THE FLOW WITH PRESSURE FALLS ALOFT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH MAMMOTH FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING. ABOUT 5 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET BY VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. 2-4 INCHES OF WET SNOW IN TOWN.
THE 12Z NAM THURSDAY MODEL SHOWS THE SNOWFALL SHUTTING DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 10:00 PM FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE.....HOWEVER.....SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY THROUGH MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY AND STAY COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AT RESORT LEVELS.
OUTLOOK:
THE NEW 12Z GFS 700MB-RH HAS SOME OVER RUNNING MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE NORTH NORTH WEST MONDAY MORNING...THIS WILL BRING THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL MONDAY INTO THE EVENING. NO ESTIMATE ON ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS AS THERE ARE NO DYNAMICS OR OROGRAPHICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF SHORE WITH INCREASING AMPLITUDE SHUNTING MOST EVERY THING TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ONE INSIDE SLIDER THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK COOLING US DOWN BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA CREATING MAJOR AIR QUALITY PROBLEMS FOR INLAND BASINS, INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE GREAT BASIN.....THEN MILD DRY WEATHER "WEEK TWO" AND THERE AFTER. THIS WILL BE OUR JANUARY THAW. (STRONG +PNA PATTERN AND COLD/WET EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROF)
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS WOULD LIKE TO WISH ALL A HAPPY AND HEALTHY NEW YEAR.................................
"UPDATED TO ADJUST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS"
NEW YEARS DAY UPDATE:
JET STREAM TO SAG SOUTH ONE MORE TIME BRINGING NEW SNOW SNOWFALL TO THE UPPER ELEVATIONS BEFORE POSITIVE PHASE PNA TAKES OVER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC THIS MORNING. LATEST INFER-RED SAT PICTURES SHOWS BACK OF THE WAVE THAT WILL EFFECT OUR AREA FRIDAY ABOUT 145 WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL ALONG A ZONAL 130KT UPPER JET STRETCHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 50N TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW 12Z CANADIAN SURFACE CHARTS HAS AS 1002MB SURFACE LOW JUST OFF SHORE OF WASHINGTON STATE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES IN TODAY. ADDITIONAL JET STREAM ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TODAY AND WILL AMPLIFY THE FLOW WITH PRESSURE FALLS ALOFT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH MAMMOTH FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING. ABOUT 5 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET BY VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. 2-4 INCHES OF WET SNOW IN TOWN.
THE 12Z NAM THURSDAY MODEL SHOWS THE SNOWFALL SHUTTING DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 10:00 PM FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE.....HOWEVER.....SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY THROUGH MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY AND STAY COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AT RESORT LEVELS.
OUTLOOK:
THE NEW 12Z GFS 700MB-RH HAS SOME OVER RUNNING MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE NORTH NORTH WEST MONDAY MORNING...THIS WILL BRING THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL MONDAY INTO THE EVENING. NO ESTIMATE ON ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS AS THERE ARE NO DYNAMICS OR OROGRAPHICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF SHORE WITH INCREASING AMPLITUDE SHUNTING MOST EVERY THING TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ONE INSIDE SLIDER THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK COOLING US DOWN BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA CREATING MAJOR AIR QUALITY PROBLEMS FOR INLAND BASINS, INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE GREAT BASIN.....THEN MILD DRY WEATHER "WEEK TWO" AND THERE AFTER. THIS WILL BE OUR JANUARY THAW. (STRONG +PNA PATTERN AND COLD/WET EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROF)
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS WOULD LIKE TO WISH ALL A HAPPY AND HEALTHY NEW YEAR.................................
Friday, January 02, 2009 7:54:33 AM
WEATHER FRONT IS FALLING APART THIS MORNING AND SO AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.....LOTS OF WIND TODAY.
SO THE FORECAST IS FOR 10 FEET OF WIND AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW!
COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S...THEN DOWN INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AFTER SATURDAY MORNING.
LONGER RANGE:
THE TRANSITION TO +PNA SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY THE WED/THUR THE 7TH/8TH. OFTEN TIMES THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID JANUARY.....OR A GOOD 21 DAYS. (JANUARY THAW) ACCORDING TO ED BERRY'S LATEST DISCUSSION, HE LED THE DWEEBS TO BELIEVE THAT THIS PATTERN MAY NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS..............
WEATHER FRONT IS FALLING APART THIS MORNING AND SO AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.....LOTS OF WIND TODAY.
SO THE FORECAST IS FOR 10 FEET OF WIND AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW!
COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S...THEN DOWN INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AFTER SATURDAY MORNING.
LONGER RANGE:
THE TRANSITION TO +PNA SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY THE WED/THUR THE 7TH/8TH. OFTEN TIMES THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID JANUARY.....OR A GOOD 21 DAYS. (JANUARY THAW) ACCORDING TO ED BERRY'S LATEST DISCUSSION, HE LED THE DWEEBS TO BELIEVE THAT THIS PATTERN MAY NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS..............
J
How are the snowmobile trails holding up west of 395? Plan on being up next weekend
MLK. Thanks.
MLK. Thanks.
B
talked to buddy who went out yesterday, they said if you luck out and find the write spots the snow is surprisingly good, the trails should be fine. I'd just watch going off trail @ lower elevations some stumps and rocks are poking there heads out in areas that get alot of sun exposure.
Light snow 22 January
Next BIG STORM .... February
Thursday, January 15, 2009 9:05:05 AM
QUICK THURSDAY AM UPDATE:
FAIR WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH MONDAY....LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NO CHANGE IN THE SENSEABLE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ANTI-CYCLONE PULLS NORTH TO NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECASTED TO GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR SOME UNDER CUTTING...AND FOR A DEVELOPING SOUTHERN BRANCH TO OCCUR. HOWEVER.....THE GFS ENSEMBLES HOLDS OFF ON AN UNDERCUTTING STORM UNTIL THE NEXT WEEKEND......BUT....THE EURO IS STRONGER WITH UNDER CUTTING TO ALLOW A SYSTEM TO BRING SOME PRECIP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE THURSDAY 06Z OPERATION GFS HAS AN UNDER CUTTING SYSTEM INTO THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, THE NEW 12Z THURSDAY RUN IS WEAKER WITH THE FEATURE WITH 558DM ISO HEIGHT VS 552DM CENTER ON THE 06Z RUN. LOOKING AT THE NORTH PACIFIC, THERE WAS A 185 KNOT WIND BARB AT 300MB AT 12Z THURSDAY...SOUTH OF THE GULF OF AK. "PRETTY STRONG UPPER JET".
BASED UPON MY EXPERIENCE, THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT:
1. HAVE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK TO ONE OF COOLER AND ONE OF UNSETTLED WX.....APPARENTLY INITIATED BY UNDER CUTTING AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH. THESE WILL NOT BE BIG SYSTEMS.
2. HAVE A WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACH THE SIERRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SNOWFALL
3. THE DWEEBS WILL HOLD OFF ON THE BAND WAGON ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AND SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE
OUT. OFTEN TIMES MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE (FAST) IN GOING FROM A DRY PATTERN TO A WETTER ONE. OF NOTE; THERE WAS ANOTHER SLIGHTLY COLDER SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH APPROACHING 140 WEST LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THAT "MIGHT" BE THE ONE THAT GETS US BETTER.
4. IT WILL BE QUITE A WHILE UNTIL WE SEE A FULL LATITUDE TROF WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE PHASE PNA. PROBABLY 10+ DAYS OR SO.
5. UNTIL THE TRANSITION SHAKES OUT, THERE WILL BE TIMING ISSUES TO DEAL WITH.
AS ONE WEATHER POET ONCE SAID.....
WHEN IT WILL SNOW WILL DEPEND A LOT UPON THE TIMING OF THE DANCE.
WE'LL TAKE A GOOD LOOK AT THE TIMING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS!!
THE DWEEBER.....................;-)
Next BIG STORM .... February
Thursday, January 15, 2009 9:05:05 AM
QUICK THURSDAY AM UPDATE:
FAIR WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH MONDAY....LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NO CHANGE IN THE SENSEABLE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ANTI-CYCLONE PULLS NORTH TO NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECASTED TO GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR SOME UNDER CUTTING...AND FOR A DEVELOPING SOUTHERN BRANCH TO OCCUR. HOWEVER.....THE GFS ENSEMBLES HOLDS OFF ON AN UNDERCUTTING STORM UNTIL THE NEXT WEEKEND......BUT....THE EURO IS STRONGER WITH UNDER CUTTING TO ALLOW A SYSTEM TO BRING SOME PRECIP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE THURSDAY 06Z OPERATION GFS HAS AN UNDER CUTTING SYSTEM INTO THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, THE NEW 12Z THURSDAY RUN IS WEAKER WITH THE FEATURE WITH 558DM ISO HEIGHT VS 552DM CENTER ON THE 06Z RUN. LOOKING AT THE NORTH PACIFIC, THERE WAS A 185 KNOT WIND BARB AT 300MB AT 12Z THURSDAY...SOUTH OF THE GULF OF AK. "PRETTY STRONG UPPER JET".
BASED UPON MY EXPERIENCE, THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT:
1. HAVE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK TO ONE OF COOLER AND ONE OF UNSETTLED WX.....APPARENTLY INITIATED BY UNDER CUTTING AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH. THESE WILL NOT BE BIG SYSTEMS.
2. HAVE A WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACH THE SIERRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SNOWFALL
3. THE DWEEBS WILL HOLD OFF ON THE BAND WAGON ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AND SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE
OUT. OFTEN TIMES MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE (FAST) IN GOING FROM A DRY PATTERN TO A WETTER ONE. OF NOTE; THERE WAS ANOTHER SLIGHTLY COLDER SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH APPROACHING 140 WEST LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THAT "MIGHT" BE THE ONE THAT GETS US BETTER.
4. IT WILL BE QUITE A WHILE UNTIL WE SEE A FULL LATITUDE TROF WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE PHASE PNA. PROBABLY 10+ DAYS OR SO.
5. UNTIL THE TRANSITION SHAKES OUT, THERE WILL BE TIMING ISSUES TO DEAL WITH.
AS ONE WEATHER POET ONCE SAID.....
WHEN IT WILL SNOW WILL DEPEND A LOT UPON THE TIMING OF THE DANCE.
WE'LL TAKE A GOOD LOOK AT THE TIMING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS!!
THE DWEEBER.....................;-)
Light snow end of week for Mammoth. No big storm forecast until high pressure leaves area.
Monday, January 19, 2009 9:08:34 AM
MONDAY AM UPDATE
TRANSITIONING INTO CHAOS
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS NOW ENTERING THE ROCKIES AS PACIFIC ENERGY BEGINS TO UNDERCUT STRONGER HEIGHTS TO OUR NORTH....COOLER WEATHER WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND"
TO REITERATE:
THE UPPER HIGH IS NOW SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER THEN FALLS APART OVER THE ROCKIES....THEN REDEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LATER THIS WEEK. HENCE RETROGRESSION WILL BE UNDER WAY SOON AS THE MODELS TRANSIT INTO CHAOS.
MEANWHILE....PACIFIC ENERGY IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE WEST COAST AND THEN WEAKENS.....THAT IS BECAUSE THE SYSTEMS ARE STILL MOVING INTO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. COOLER TEMPS, HIGHER DEW POINTS AND A MORE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. THUS ONLY WEAK UNDERCUTTING IS STILL IN THE PICTURE...
SO BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR 50. LOWS IN THE 20S.
WHEN WILL THE FIRST REAL STORM HIT THE SIERRA? THIS IS NOT KNOWN WITH ANY CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. AS OF TODAY MONDAY....THE PATTERN HAS BARELY BEGUN TO GO INTO TRANSITION..... SO HOW COULD IT BE POSSIBLE TO FORECAST THE TIMING OR STRENGTH OF SUCH AN EVENT IN THE FUTURE?......MORE TIME IS NEEDED!
ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH A SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.....THERE HAS BEEN NO REAL CONSISTENCY, IN EITHER TIME FRAME OR MODEL SOLUTION. THIS IS WHY THE DWEEBS HAVE BEEN SAYING THAT UNTIL THE PATTERN SETS UP.....LONGER RANGE FORECASTS AREN'T WORTH THE CYBERSPACE THEY ARE DIGITIZED ON.
AT THE MOMENT...ANY CHANCE FOR A FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC DOES NOT LOOK VERY LIKELY UNTIL TOWARD THE END OF JANUARY....OR THE 1ST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS................
Monday, January 19, 2009 9:08:34 AM
MONDAY AM UPDATE
TRANSITIONING INTO CHAOS
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS NOW ENTERING THE ROCKIES AS PACIFIC ENERGY BEGINS TO UNDERCUT STRONGER HEIGHTS TO OUR NORTH....COOLER WEATHER WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND"
TO REITERATE:
THE UPPER HIGH IS NOW SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER THEN FALLS APART OVER THE ROCKIES....THEN REDEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LATER THIS WEEK. HENCE RETROGRESSION WILL BE UNDER WAY SOON AS THE MODELS TRANSIT INTO CHAOS.
MEANWHILE....PACIFIC ENERGY IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE WEST COAST AND THEN WEAKENS.....THAT IS BECAUSE THE SYSTEMS ARE STILL MOVING INTO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. COOLER TEMPS, HIGHER DEW POINTS AND A MORE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. THUS ONLY WEAK UNDERCUTTING IS STILL IN THE PICTURE...
SO BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR 50. LOWS IN THE 20S.
WHEN WILL THE FIRST REAL STORM HIT THE SIERRA? THIS IS NOT KNOWN WITH ANY CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. AS OF TODAY MONDAY....THE PATTERN HAS BARELY BEGUN TO GO INTO TRANSITION..... SO HOW COULD IT BE POSSIBLE TO FORECAST THE TIMING OR STRENGTH OF SUCH AN EVENT IN THE FUTURE?......MORE TIME IS NEEDED!
ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH A SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.....THERE HAS BEEN NO REAL CONSISTENCY, IN EITHER TIME FRAME OR MODEL SOLUTION. THIS IS WHY THE DWEEBS HAVE BEEN SAYING THAT UNTIL THE PATTERN SETS UP.....LONGER RANGE FORECASTS AREN'T WORTH THE CYBERSPACE THEY ARE DIGITIZED ON.
AT THE MOMENT...ANY CHANCE FOR A FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC DOES NOT LOOK VERY LIKELY UNTIL TOWARD THE END OF JANUARY....OR THE 1ST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS................
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